1.2.2 预测未来 V1 by doodle 预测未来的需求却往往导致不好的结果之类的 我的材料： Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market. 这个只有名词解释，具体的内容大家可以自己继续搜，熟悉一些词汇吧 原文 1.
T-7-Q23-Q25企业新产品开发对市场供求的影响Companies that must determine well
好卖的产品产量太少，难卖的产品
in advance of the selling season how
产量又太大。
many unites of a new product to manu-
Line facture often underproduce products
(5) that sell well and have overstocks of
others. The increased incidence in
这种供求矛盾似乎很讽刺，因为
recent years of mismatches between
消费者购买模式的数据趋于精确，
production and demand seems ironic,
弹性生产又允许小量商品的生产。
since point-of-sale scanners have
(10) improved data on consumers’ buying
patterns and since flexible manufacturing
has enabled companies to
24
produce, cost-effectively, small
quantities of goods. This type of
弹性生产导致美国每年新产品
(15) manufacturing has greatly increased
大量增加。但是频繁引入新产品
the number of new products introduced
有两个消极的副作用。
annually in the United States. However,
frequent introductions of new products
have two problematic side effects. For
一方面产品平均寿命缩短；它
(20) one, they reduce the average lifetime of
们既不处于初期（难以预计），
products; more of them are neither at the
也不处于末期（库存昂贵）。
beginning of their life (when prediction
is difficult) or at the end of their life
(when keeping inventory is expen-
(25) sive because the products will soon
become obsolete). For another, as
另一方面，随着新产品泛滥，
new products proliferate, demand is
需求在增加的库存单位内分配
divided among a growing number of
stock-keeping units (SKU’s). Even
虽然厂商和零售商有些把握预
(30) though manufacturers and retailers can
计准确的累积总需求，但他们
forecast aggregate demand with some
难以准确预计这些需求在众多
certainty, forecasting accurately how
库存单位内如何分配。
that demand will be distributed among
the many SKU’s they sell is difficult.
(35) For example, a company may be able
例如，一家公司可能可以准确
to estimate accurately the aggregate
估计鞋子总售量，但它不确定
number of shoes it will sell, but it may
哪种鞋子会卖更多，哪种鞋子
be uncertain about which specific
会卖更少。
types of shoes will sell more than
other types.
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Q23:
Which of the following most accurately describes the function of the last sentence in the
passage (lines 35-40)?
A. To cite a situation in which the aggregate demand is more important than the distribution of demand among SKU’s
B. To refute an assertion about the side effects of flexible manufacturing
C. To illustrate an assertion about companies’ ability to forecast demand
D. To provide an example of ways in which companies address the difficulties of
forecasting demand
E. To note an exception to the author’s assertion about distributing demand am-ong
SKU’s Q24:
The passage suggests which of the following about divided demand among a growing
number of SKU’s?
A. It has increased the average lifetime of products.
B. It has resulted from retailer’s attempts to predict demand more accurately and
avoid both understocks and overstocks.
C. It has decreased the use of flexible manufacturing by companies.
D. It has not increased the expense of keeping inventory of certain products.
E. It has not prevented companies from predicting aggregate demand with some
certainty. Q25: According to the passage, which of the following has led to growth in the number of new products introduced in the United States each year? - Reduced average lifetime of products
- Increased ability to forecast aggregate demand
- More cost-effective ways of keeping inventory for products
- Cost-effective production of small quantities of goods
- Increased ability to divide demand among a number of SKU’s and to forecast how that demand will be distributed among those SKU’s
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