Argument错误（思维训练）

july_0112

Argument（65~80）
From Samantha, CUFE
65.The following appeared in the promotional literature for Cerberus dog food.
“Obesity in humans is typically caused by consuming more calories than the body need. For humans, a proper diet for losing weight is a reduced-calorie diet that is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat. Therefore, the best way for dog owners to help their dogs lose weight in a healthy way is to restrict the dog’s diet to Cerberus reduce-calorie dog food, which is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat.”
论据一：Obesity in humans is typically caused by consuming more calories than the body need.
反驳：错误类比，对于humans来说肥胖的原因是calories的过度摄取，对于pet dogs来说不一定如此，有可能是因为饮食结构的不合理，也有可能是由于一个正常的摄入量和一个低水平的运动量的结合。
论据二：For humans, a proper diet for losing weight is a reduced-calorie diet that is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat. Therefore, the best way for dog owners to help their dogs lose weight in a healthy way is to restrict the dog’s diet to Cerberus reduce-calorie dog food, which is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat.
反驳：错误类比，a reduced-calorie diet对于人类来说或许是一种好的减肥食谱，然而对于pet dogs来却不一定适合，因为人体所需要的营养和人类的消化系统与pet dogs还是有很大的来源于物种的差异的。
此外，哪怕文中所提及的reduced-calorie diet，即高纤维、高碳水化合物，低脂肪的减肥食谱对于pet dogs来说同样适合，对人对pet dogs来说都只是一种proper way to lose weight，并不能推出将pet dogs的饮食限制于这样的食谱是最佳的为pet dogs减肥的方法（best way for…to…），一定有许多其他的方法能够帮助pet dogs减肥，比如运动减肥法，药物减肥法。特别需要强调的是，每一只pet dog个体health condition和体质都不同，作者以偏概全一概而论的方法是片面（one-sided; unbalanced）、不负责任的（irresponsible; casual）。
更甚，即使这样的食谱的确是唯一的最好的pet dogs减肥食谱，Cerberus也绝对不是唯一的选择，市面上还会有很多牌子的dog food的营养配方遵循这样的食谱。
总体说来，作者所提供的证据（evidence）无法支持作者的结论。

july_0112

66.The following appeared in an article in a travel magazine.
“After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month. And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today’s business traveler.“
理由一：After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month.
反驳：作者只提供了航空工业要求airlines公布on-time rates之后Speedee航空公司的准点率情况，这并不能代表在此之前这家公司的准点率一直排名第一而且达到89%之高，很可能在此之前公司的准点率在业内（within the industry）排名非常靠后，公司正是借着airline industry将on-time rates作为公开指标的机会提高自己的这项指标以便提高，甚至是挽救公司的声誉。
此外，Speedee公司或许只有very limited amount of flights，甚至只有不到10条航线（less than 10 flights），因此89%的准点率并不能说明公司的航班有多么强的时间管理能力（time-managed ability）。并且，on-time rates只能是衡量航空公司服务的众多标准之中的一个，这个信息无法帮助我们推断出Speedee公司的服务质量、安全系数、航线丰富程度等其他信息。
理由二：And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today’s business traveler.
反驳：为了进一步支持自己的结论，作者提到这样一个事实：公司比以前提供了更多的航线（或者说destinations）。然而作者没有告诉我们公司之前的航线数量，正如上面假设的，或许公司之前只有极其有限的航线，那么哪怕一个非常大程度的提高，也无法使得公司拥有称得上“abundant”的destinations来满足市场需要，更何况作者根本没有给出信息告诉我们增长的程度（the level of the increase）。
此外，哪怕Speedee的确是一家非常好的航空公司，增加航线后的确拥有数一数二丰富的航线（have more flights/destinations than any other airlines in the industry），Speedee也不一定是business traveler的最佳选择。因为很可能其航线覆盖的大多是旅游目的地，并且价格相对于商务舱价位来说都太高，从需求和成本上都不能满足business traveler的需要，更何况，作者根本没有提供任何更多的证据让我们判断Speedee究竟是一家怎样的航空公司。

july_0112

67．The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an investment firm.
“Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity. Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed. Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario’s chief executive was once the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.”
论据一：Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity.
反驳：几种设备的成本降低了不足以证明整个转化solar energy into electricity设备的成本都降低了，并且最近的降低（recently）不能保证降低的趋势一致延续下去，延续多长时间。作者也没有提供关于成本降低程度的信息，如果设备的成本本来就处于一个特别高的水平之上，短时间内的低水平dropping in costs无法保证进入这个行业的成本是很低的。
论据二：Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed.
反驳：作者主观认定new technologies是令人兴奋的，这样的判断标准值得怀疑，作者只是依据主观判断（subjective）下了结论，没有客观的（objective）说服力。此外，正在被研发的新技术并不一定真正能够转化为生产力，并不一定对太阳能发电产业带来好的效应。
观点一：Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power.
反驳：作者根据以上两个不充分（inefficient）的观点得出了如上的结论，这个结论本身就没有说服力。此外，结论认为solar energy相比于coal和oil是一种更加经济、有吸引力的发电原料，在这个对比中，作者没有给出具体的关于coal和oil的具体信息，因此这样的结论不可信，这样的比较也缺乏事实根据。
观点二：We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario’s chief executive was once the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.
反驳：作者最后得出的结论是要投资新的solar-powered products（太阳能动力产品制造商），这明显犯了偷换概念的错误，假设solar energy作为发电材料真的是更加具有前景的，我们也无法肯定solar-powered products就是投资的好选择。更何况作者给出的补充理由极其没有说服力，一个曾经在软件工程公司的financial planning team中取得过成绩的人作为完全不同行业公司的CEO并不一定有很强的实力，况且一个team的成功无法作为衡量个人能力的决定性（exclusive）标准，因此Solario公司并不一定是有能力、有潜力、能够带来盈利的投资对象。

july_0112

68．（我感觉我写得不好……麻烦大家及时修改反馈啊~~~）
The following appeared in a memorandum from a company’s marketing department.
“Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe air filter six months ago, sales of our economy filter- and company profits- have decreased significantly.The deluxe air filter sells for 50 percent more than the economy filter, but the economy filter lasts for only one month while the deluxe filter can be used for two months before it must be replaced. （这句话不知道有什么错误，不知道怎么反驳）To increase repeat sales of our economy filter and maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe air filter and concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter.”
论据一：Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe air filter six months ago, sales of our economy filter- and company profits- have decreased significantly.
反驳：非因果关系，生产和销售deluxe air filter与economy filter销售量以及公司的profits的下降之间并不一定是必然的因果关系，可能在此之前公司的sales of economy filter and company profits已经处于下降的阶段，故不能将decrease归因于生产和销售deluxe air filter。此外，影响销售量和profits的因素有很多，除了营销策略（marketing strategy）之外，也可能是由于整个行业的发展状况、经济环境（economic condition）等其他因素的作用。作者也没有告诉我们下降的具体程度。
结论一：To increase repeat sales of our economy filter and maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe air filter and concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter.
反驳：这家公司的marketing department的目标是提高economy filter的重复销售（repeat sales）和最大化公司的利润，为达到这样的目标，采取两个措施，第一个是停止deluxe air filter的业务，第二个是focus their advertising on the economy filter。这里面隐藏着作者的一个逻辑错误，作者认为maximize profits与economy filter的销售有直接的关系，然而根据文章有限的信息，我们知道deluxe air filter虽然贵，但耐用，与economy filter各有优缺点（The deluxe air filter sells for 50 percent more than the economy filter, but the economy filter lasts for only one month while the deluxe filter can be used for two months before it must be replaced.），我们没有理由拒绝deluxe air filter或许能够更好地maximize profits这样一个观点，因为或者是由于这家公司对于deluxe air filter的marketing做得不好而导致的销售业绩的不理想，并不由于产品本身，而文章没有提供给我们关于这方面的更加详细的信息。因而，完全discontinue the deluxe air filter不一定是一个好的strategy，多样化的产品加上更加适合市场的营销策略，或许能够更好地实现maximize profits的目标。
另外，即使集中化（centralizaion？正确的英文表达是什么来着？原谅我不是商科滴~~）的销售策略的确是best choice，concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter这样一个advertising strategy也不见得是好的，对于一家公司来说，公司的reputation和image同样重要，也同样需要advertisement对其进行宣传，将所有advertising efforts集中于一个产品是不明智的（unwise/unreasonable）。

july_0112

69．The following appeared in a memorandum from a president of a company that makes shampoo.
“A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects. Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.”
观点一：A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects.
反驳：作者认为the study about HR2的样本容量不够大，因此拒绝接受研究的成果，然而事实上如果抽样方法、研究方法和具体的操作都是科学合理的，500的样本容量并不会太小，研究成果也能够在一定程度上说明问题。（reveal the truth to some degree）。
论据一：Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do.
反驳：作者说during the past year（在过去的一年里），公司并没有收到顾客的complaints，然而如果研究的结论属实，那么只有a prolonged use of the shampoo contained HR2才会引起hair loss，一年的use time究竟能否归入a prolonged use的范畴有待商榷。
并且，在过去的一年里没有收到complaints不能说明该公司收到的complains很少，更不能证明其产品质量非常好，有可能在更长的销售史中，该公司收到的complains远多于average。
此外，competitors的行为（behavior）不能够成为决定本公司行为的理由。We can’t break the rules of our society just because other people do so.或许别的公司添加more HR2的行为已经造成了serious consequences，damage the health of customs了。
观点二：Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.
反驳：作者根据上文陈述的理由得出这样的结论，由于上文的观点和论据都不够有说服力，可以说the basic assumption of this conclusion is irrational，这个结论自然缺乏可信度。

july_0112

70．The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.（专卖店，百货公司）
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their products increased during this same period.（我不知道自己对这句话的理解有没有错误哈，大家讨论下） Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
论据一+观点一：Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their products increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing.
反驳：作者告诉我们这样两个事实，local clothing stores 8到10月这三个月间的平均利润下降了，而home-products stores同期的平均利润却上升了。作者根据这个事实推出了consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing这样的结论。
首先，Consumers对于clothing和home products相互替代的选择行为应该表现在销售量上，而平均利润的上升或者下降并不能够反映出销售量的变化。对于clothing的销售来说，profits on average for the three month（我是这么理解的：三个月间的平均利润，下降是相对于前三个月的平均利润，不知道对不对）的下降可能有多种原因，成本的上升、销售量的降低都有可能。另外，三个月总的平均利润的下降也有可能是因为前阶段的某些factors造成平均利润的极度下降，而后半阶段平均利润处于上升阶段，但总体上没有弥补前阶段的下降，从三个月的平均利润下降的事实没有办法推出平均利润的走势（trend）。对于home products平均利润的上升的理解同样存在以上问题。
此外，平均利润的降低不代表总利润的降低，这些local stores或许采用降价促销的方式来扩大total profits。而total profits的变化对于销售策略的决定或许更有价值。
进一步说（Furthermore），即使consumers的确减少了对于clothing的购买，也不能说明他们将这部分需求转移向home products。也就是说，clothing需求的降低和home products需求的增加之间并不能构成直接的因果关系（A mere negative correlation between XX and XX does not necessarily prove a causal relationship）。
无论从哪个角度来说，作者的推理都存在逻辑错误。
观点二：To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.
反驳：作者认为存在这样一个trend：consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing，然而从以上分析我们可以知道，这个trend本身是unreasonable的。
根据文章的信息，我们无法判断本地clothing和home products的具体销售情况和趋势，因此无法预估总利润的大小，故作出文章的conclusion是缺乏根据的。
此外，文章提到的local stores或许并不是department stores，完全有可能是retail or other kinds stores的数据，或者是混合数据，这个数据即使属实并且有效，都无法为department stores的决策给予决定性的参考（exclusive references）。

july_0112

71．The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a regional newspaper.（写得很不好啊啊啊啊……）
“In response to petitions from the many farmers and rural landowners throughout our region, the legislature has spent valuable time and effort enacting severe laws to deter motorists from picking fruit off the trees, trampling through the fields, and stealing samples of foliage. But how can our local lawmakers occupy themselves with such petty vandalism when crime and violence plague the nation’s cities? The fate of apples and leaves is simply too trivial to merit their attention.”
观点一：But how can our local lawmakers occupy themselves with such petty vandalism when crime and violence plague the nation’s cities?
反驳：作者认为local lawmakers不应该在城市中的暴力犯罪蔓延时让petty vandalism占据他们宝贵的时间，然而作者给出的理由是“crime and violence plague the nation’s cities”，这显然是一个一般对特殊的错误。犯罪和暴力在城市蔓延只是一个普遍的phenomenon，并不代表在当地（local）会存在同样的问题，或许crime and violence对于当地的治安来说并不是问题。
此外，或许作者提起的region并不是城市，只是一个town，以agriculture为主业，那么local lawmakers spend much of their time on agriculture problems就是无可厚非的（to give no cause for much criticism）。
观点二：The fate of apples and leaves is simply too trivial to merit their attention.
反驳：就作者看来，the fate of apples and leaves is simply too trivial to merit their attention，local lawmakers根本无需在这些事务上花费时间。首先，作者从头至尾就没有提及how much time the local lawmakers have spent on enacting such laws，如果制定和执行这些法律花费了他们合理而正常的工作时间，没有理由对其提出批评。
其次，如果problems they are focusing on对于当地的development很重要的话，完全有必要在上面花费时间。
第三，对于residents的合理requirements and petitions，local lawmakers需要关注。

july_0112

72．The following appeared as part of an editorial in a campus newspaper.
“With an increasing demand for highly skilled workers, this nation will soon face a serious labor shortage. New positions in technical and professional occupations are increasing rapidly, while at the same time the local labor force is growing slowly. Moreover, the government is proposing to cut funds for aid to education in the near future.”
论据一：New positions in technical and professional occupations are increasing rapidly, while at the same time the local labor force is growing slowly.
反驳：对于技术和专业领域workers的需求增长很迅速和the local labor force的缓增长并不能直接说明什么问题：首先，对于the labor force（总劳动力）增长的缓慢并不代表对于workers of certain field增长的缓慢，或许整体上劳动力增长缓慢然而在technical and professional方面劳动力却有很大程度的增加。
此外，哪怕在这个领域的劳动力增长也跟不上需求的增加，作者也并没有给出“New positions in technical and professional occupations are increasing rapidly”这个事实究竟是在一个什么样的范围内说的，作者提到labor force增长的缓慢却是在当地（local）范围内说的。用别的地区或者是更大范围区域的数据与本地数据一起说明问题是不可取的（unreasonable）。
论据二：Moreover, the government is proposing to cut funds for aid to education in the near future.
反驳：作者并没有给予足够的信息告诉我们政府削减的究竟是哪方面的教育的投资，整体教育投资Funds的削减并不能代表在某个具体的教育领域投资的减少，很有可能是将用于某个领域的funds减少并在另外领域大量地增加投资。
此外，我们并不知道在减少投资之前教育经费的情况究竟如何，有可能事前政府投资于教育的经费处于过剩的状态，减少教育投资对于教育行业来说并不会有什么影响。
第三，in the near future并不能告诉我们具体的时间信息，政府在这项政策上也只正在计划的过程中。
第四，即使教育经费真的下降，也不代表教育质量和相应领域劳动力数量、质量的下降。
论点一：With an increasing demand for highly skilled workers, this nation will soon face a serious labor shortage.
反驳：根据作者的逻辑线条，作者似乎是用上面的两个论据支持了以上的这个观点。然而要知道，对于教育投资的减少不代表对于技术和专业技能人员的教育经费支持的下降，经费的下降也不代表劳动力数量和质量的下降。
此外，technical and professional workers与skilled workers也不是等同的概念，在任何领域都存在着skilled workers。
最后，对于skilled workers需求的增加并不代表国家将面临严重的劳动力短缺，毕竟skilled workers只是workers中的一小部分，skilled workers供给的不足不代表整个劳动力群体供给的不足。

july_0112

73．The following appeared as part of a memorandum from a government agency.
“Given the limited funding available for the building and repair of roads and bridges, the government should not spend any money this year on fixing the bridge that crosses the Styx River. This bridge is located near a city with a weakening economy, so it is not as important as other bridges; moreover, city population is small and thus unlikely to contribute a significant enough tax revenue to justify the effort of fixing the bridge.”
论据一：This bridge is located near a city with a weakening economy, so it is not as important as other bridges.
反驳：首先，一座桥所能够发挥的作用和价值并不取决于它所接近的城市的经济发展状况。For example，一座桥在一个小山村附近，然而如果这座桥是一条贸易通道的唯一必经之路，那么它对于trade and economy development的作用可想而知。
此外，作者没有给出更多的关于这座城市经济状况的信息，我们无法得知这样一个weakening in economy发生之前这座城市的经济状况，这种状况发展到了一个什么样的程度、是以一个什么速度进展的，我们也无法得知这个状况是由什么具体的原因引起的。无法得知这些具体的信息，我们便不能够做出武断的判断。For example，有可能整个国家的经济状况都处于下行阶段，几乎所有城市的经济发展都不太好，这个城市的经济衰落便不应该批判。
根据以上分析，作者没有充足的理由得出这座桥比起其他的桥更加不重要这样一个结论。
进一步说，或许这座城市十分有潜力，而桥对于其经济的发展有很大的影响，fixing of the bridge能够greatly boost the economy growth of this city，从而为整个地区、国家的经济起到positive influence。
论据二：Moreover, city population is small and thus unlikely to contribute a significant enough tax revenue to justify the effort of fixing the bridge.
反驳：城市的人数少不代表其经济实力不强，我们没有理由拒绝相信这座城市的人口虽然少，但是经济发展水平非常高，城市中有经济实力很强的经济增长支柱，能够为政府提供很可观的税收收入。

july_0112

74.The following appeared as part of an article in an entertainment magazine.（没找到太多的错误……上网找吧，懒得想了~~~~(>_<)~~~~ ）
“A series of books based on the characters from a popular movie are consistently bestsellers in local bookstores. Seeking to capitalize on the book’s success, Vista Studios is planning to produce a movie sequel based on the books. Due to the success of the books and the original movie, the sequel will undoubtedly be profitable.”
论据一：A series of books based on the characters from a popular movie are consistently bestsellers in local bookstores.
反驳：在local bookstores中的bestsellers并不代表在整个国家乃至世界范围内都有很好的销量，而且作者也没给出关于时间的具体信息，我们无法得知是在几天内、几周内还是几个月内这一系列书是bestseller。
观点一：Due to the success of the books and the original movie, the sequel will undoubtedly be profitable.
反驳：the success of the books and the original movie与whether the sequel will be profitable之间不存在必然的因果关系。一部电影能否有好的盈利受到许多因素的影响，比如说如果电影的演员换了，观众对于原电影的忠诚很可能会使得他们拒绝接受新的电影。此外，一部电影的拍摄周期比较长，很难保证电影推出时观众依旧会对它感兴趣。电影推出时的经济状况和电影市场的竞争程度也会影响其盈利，比如说电影推出时正逢严重的经济危机或者有大的社会性灾难突然发生，电影的盈利就会受到很大的影响。
总而言之，一部电影能否盈利除了受到电影故事情节、人物、拍摄等电影内部因素的影响之外，还将受到经济状况、社会环境状况等许多外界不可控因素的影响。故作者的definitely profitable的论断是武断的。