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55. The following appeared in an Excelsior Company memorandum.
“The Excelsior Company plans to introduce its own brand of coffee. Since coffee is an expensive food item, and since there are already many established brands of coffee, the best way to gain customers for the Excelsior brand is to do what Superior, the leading coffee company, did when it introduced the newest brand in its line of coffees: conduct a temporary sales promotion that offers free samples, price reductions, and discount coupons for the new brand.”
1．        没有说明Superior公司的操作成功了
2．        Superior公司的操作不能类推到Excelsior Company
3．        即使可以成功，可能相同的操作，但是时间不同，效果不同
4．        Sales promo可能未必是最好的方法，因为会增加cost，减少revenue，可能更好的是加强广告力度

70. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of a company that makes shampoo.
“A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects. Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.”
1.        500可能是随机抽取的消费者，完全具代表性
2.        去年没有complaint，未必表示没有不满，可能尚未显现，因为要after prolonged use
3.        别人用更多的HR2不代表我们不需要改进，没有因果关系

124. 7月2次,6月2次，5月6次，4月7次（17）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
1.        foot traffic不代表business grow
2.        business grow未必是因为radio advertising
3.        business grow未必就profit高从而weathy，可能广告成本很高
4.        过去3年不景气，未必将来不好，所以不一定需要switch
5.        不能类推，clothing的target audience可能更关注纸媒

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2. 6月5次，5月11次，4月6次（22）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company.
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees.”
1. 过去的more profitable未必就是operations in one location导致的，可能是因为别的因素，比如当时的经济环境更好
2. 时序因果：过去发生的，不是原因，可能过去规模还小，成本小，人员好管理，流程简单，无法确保将来的趋势
3. 虽然centralization可以在一定程度上cut cost，但未必profitable，可能出差交通费用，电信费用的增加更高，更不一定就能

新题：5月10次，4月2次
The argument was about a paragraph from a restaurant business newsletter about small franchise restaurants.
A small restaurant owner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. His restaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided to open another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promote his 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the new restaurants. He expects his profits will trip after all restaurants are opened.
1. last 2 years未必表示将来一定能成功，可能有别的因素
2. 不同地点错误类比
3. 雇员当分店经理了可能管理水平不行啦之类的

新题：7月2次，6月2次，5月9次，4月3次（16）
The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country's economy.
考古：
[v1]一个B城市:5年前hold an succor competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办一次类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
[v2] AA:5年前办了一个足球比赛，后来旅游发展很好，所以我们应该引进更多的国际体育赛事到B市，就可以吸引游客，带动经济发展
[v3] B国家五年前hosted a international soccer competition 游客增加 所以市长未来想要再办类似的比赛以增加观光收入和国家收益
1、错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2、过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因

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新题. 7月5次,6月4次，5月8次，4月6次（23）
说有个调查发现人们越来越喜欢吃健康的食物，于是某fitness gyms决定要在三个section售卖有机食品以期提高利润。
V2.是说一个manager写给Health Fitness还是啥的一个好像是健身连锁公司的建议的根据 a recent survey,发现这个公司的customers大多是organic grocery的潜在顾客吧【这完全是我自己的表达，我记不得原材料了，我理解就是它是说这个survey显示organic grocery在这个company的顾客群中是很有市场的】，然后这个organic grocery要求所在城市有机、未使用农药杀虫剂的蔬菜供应，好像还有一个条件不记得了然后就直接说所以这个company所在的城市显然很适合开organic grocery。建议公司在national organic grocery chains进驻这个city前赶紧建，而且是expand all three fitness gyms to include a organic grocery.说通过此可以增加公司的利润。
上月机经6次
[V1]对一个fitness gym顾客的调查发现他们对吃的健康很感兴趣，所以政府会支持建卖有机食品的店。所以这个gym为了扭转利润长久的不增长因该在所有门店增设利润很高的有机食品店。
[V2] 一个survey表明人们越来越注重饮食健康，喜欢吃organic food, 所以得出结论当地的fitness gyms应该有grocery store，而且要赶在别的商家进来之前
[V3] People are interested in eating healthier, one way is to eat organic food which is grown without chemical and pesticide. Government is supportive for organic food. One grocery manager is recommending expanding their 3 out of 4 existing store to sell organic food.
考古：
.[v1]AA 大概是讲一个调查说这个城市的人开始想健康饮食了，然后一种有机食品商店是健康饮食的一个因素，然后么一个GYM说要在里面也建那个商店，给出理由是什么大的连锁还没进来，要快点建，然后要在其三家GYM都扩展这个业务什么的，这样一来会增加利润之类的。  有心的人去考古一下吧，不过我没找到...
[v2] 就是最近的一个survey得出结论，现在的人更喜欢吃的营养，而吃的营养的一种方法就是吃有机食品。所以作者就建议说在那个市里开有机食品店，在这种有机食品还没有普遍的情况下打开市场。而且这个店要开在体育馆里，还是三个体育馆每个都设立这样一个grocery food store(类似)这样可以增加体育馆的收入。
主要有的问题是 survey本身的问题，recently太模糊，还有无因果，无端假设，我觉得还有错误类比，过去推将来这样的trend
AA是一个健身房想要卖有机食品的那题。
[v3] from a customer survey, people like to buy organic food.and the government is ready to support organic stores. therefore, business manager recommended to establish organic food section in the company's three gyms.

新题：本月7次
Argument关键字，Software company, Temporary workforce
上月机经7次
argument 是说有个 software company 为了提高profit, 打算switching their full time worker to temperate workforce. 理由是因为汽车行业有公司通过用part-time worker 来降低成本，并且取得了很好的成效，所以这个software 公司也打算这么做，说是把25％full-time 换成part-time 就可以增加短期收入和保证长期利益稳定
[V2]estman Software company那篇，说要学习auto industry将人换成temporary basis to cut cost。说可以get high profit。
以下为上个月寂静中的观点：
[v2]一家电脑软件公司三年没利润了，因此公司must cut the budgets。因为computer software industry普遍employ part-time workers，这家公司也将要这么做。part-time worker的工资少，而且可以不用给职工福利。这家公司即将shift 25%的full-time worker换为part-time的，这样公司会增加利润。
提供观点：
1、        错误的类比：软件业和汽车业
2、        不一定能带来收入、利益的稳定：可能导致员工积极性下降

s

6月5次，5月7次，4月5次（17）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.”
1.        profits increase未必只和employee有关, 所以decrease也未必完全是employee的问题
2.        过去不能代表未来
3.        不一定是HR的问题

7月2次,6月1次，5月7次，4月4次（14）
原题："Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50 percent and thereby achieve a balanced town budget."(106 or 108)
1.        提供well-equipped gym和improve fitness没有必然联系，可能大家不愿意去锻炼或没时间去
2.        提供well-equipped gym和reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage没有必然因果关系，可能因为运动伤害增加了医疗开支
3.        也未必能achieve a balanced town budget，要考虑cost

7月7次,6月1次，5月7次，4月2次（17）
V1.Afun toys company successfully use the module which that senior employees take on an aprrence,让新员工观察老员工然后从中学习. 这样的话可以减少很多cost for training program。有人建议他们的公司应该学习这个fun toys company.
V2.摘自a human resouce director in a tire manufacturing company.
”The cost of training the new employee plays an  important role  in the overall expense of a company. 象the Fun Toys Company 发起一个Apprentice Training Progam. 他们给senior empoloyee发 salary bounus 如果他们自愿参加这个项目。在这个项目中new employee can learn business patterns from the senior employee这样来降低新员工的培训成本。 so no more expensive and cost programs are needed. 所以我们公司也应该象FUN Toys Company 一样用这中项目降低新员工培训的成本。”
粉红栀TX提供的思路：
1 False Analogy. 错误类比了我们公司（tire manufacturing company 和 Fun Toys Company）
2 One-sidedness. 没有考虑cost-effect analysis.  在这个项目实施过程中，给老员工发的salary bonus 可能大于省下的training cost. 并且在学习过程中，新员工可能会学到老员工的一些坏习惯，比如错误操作等
3 “no more expensive ...... are needed.” 过于绝对。在Apprentice Training Program中新员工只能学到专业技能，操作，但是对团队协作力，团队建设等没有很好的培训到。
上月机经2次
A fun toys company sussefully use the module which that senior employees take on an aprrence,让新员工观察老员工然后从中学习. 这样的话可以减少很多expense time for training program。有人建议他们的公司应该学习这个fun toys company.
考古：
[v1]一个公司要省新员工培训费，决定让老员工参加一个program，记录他们的habits and activities,让新员工follow，以省去高昂的cost
[v2] AA是培训员工很费钱，一个玩具商店取消了员工培训，让员工自己向老员工学习，但是有技能的员工有奖励，所以作者的公司也想这么干。
观点：
1.老员工的不一定适合新员工啊，时代在变化嘛
2.可能老员工参加的program也会花费很多

7月2次,6月5次，5月6次，4月5次（18）
原题：The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper.
“Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 5 cents apiece for lemons, but today it commonly charges over 30 cents apiece. In only one of these last eleven years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices.”(89)
1. 柠檬推citrus fruit, Megamart推所有果农，类推错误
2. 即使天气因素可以排除，价格的上涨并非是由果农导致，可能和通货膨胀，生产成本有关，或者是dealer推高价格
3. 即使apply了strict pricing regulations可能还是无法不涨，自由市场的政府干预，可能make things even worse

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7月1次,6月4次，5月6次，4月5次（16）
v1讲工作在家不如在办公室好，
V2.it's unwise for people to quit office job to become self-employed and work from home.
V3.it is financially unwise for people working at home。Author给了三点理由，第一，家里各种noisy neighbor, telephone call什么的会打扰到你；第二，在家里工作的人没有schedule；第三，在家会socially &professionally isolated，所以不能career advancement。Therefore,作者总结,对long-tern 在家工作earning less money than在办公室工作。
感谢athue提供的思路：
我从三个方面来说的：
第一，        无理假设，no evidence is stated in the argument so support that在家工作的人没schedule和会有很多distraction打扰到你。
第二，        忽略他因，作者没有考虑到career advancement的其他原因，只说员工如果不professional的话，那就没有career advancement。
第三，        没有全面考虑有关earning的多个方面，即使在office工作可能收入会高一些，但是员工的成本也高啦，比如transportation fee。
上月机经 5次
提供观点：因为——
（1）在家里工作的人比较懒散，没有set schedule，所以会干…，会avoid working

（2）在家工作的人因为socially & professionally isolated，没法借出最新的information，所以career advancement少

（3）在家里工作会有很多distraction：noisy neighbor, household chores, telephone calls。
总结就是在家里的话，赚钱会比在办公室里面工作少
考古
这道题貌似在OG中无对应题目，JJ如下：
1、 讲工作在家不如在办公室好，因为在家的人比较懒散，不会有计划工作，所以也就不会有更多机会晋升，再所以说，在办公室工作赚钱比在家的更多。（大概就这个意思）
[v2] 在办公室工作比在家里工作要赚的钱多。【差不多啦，就是什么financial什么的】
给了三个理由
（1）在家里工作的人没有set schedule，所以就会干嘛（那个词不认识，反正就是类似不好好工作吧），会avoid working
（2）在家工作的人因为socially &professionally isolated，所以career advancement少
（3）在家里工作会有很多distraction：什么邻居啊，还有household chores 还有一个什么的。
总结就是在家里的话，赚钱会比在办公室里面工作少。
[v3] 就是在办公室工作和在家工作比较：从经济角度考虑放弃在办公室工作而在家工作室不明智的，因为在家工作有很多东西让你分心，eg telephone call, noisy neighbour...而且在家工作会使人isolated么办法接触最新的information. 最后会导致收入么在办公室收入高。
提供观点：                     
1.这个有些人比较适合一个人在家里工作，有些人不习惯communication， 比如说很多的电脑天才都喜欢自己一个人研究， 睡到自然醒，反而必须的schedue 不符合他们的工作。
2.在家里工作的话会省掉很多办公室的utility expense， 这样公司可以给更多的钱给职工。
3.升职的话更多的是需要的能力，况且可以通过网络视频或者周末出去吃饭。 同样可以交流
所以选好邻居很重要，说不定你的邻居可以成为你职业上的帮忙。。

6月4次，5月5次，4月4次（13）
说一个咖啡馆在网站上建了一个feedback的专页，并将网址打印在给每位顾客的Receipt上面。发现一段时间后只有一百多条抱怨和几十条建议，而在此期间咖啡馆却售出了30000杯饮料，于是作者认为咖啡馆的服务和产品非常好。
上月机经4次
A Cafe build a website to allow the feed back of its customer in the past six months. The address of the site is clearly sited on the **(忘了，单词大家能认识),The site only receive 178 complaint and 33 advise,but the number of  total receipts is 33,000.Conclusion:the Cafe does not need to evaluate and improve the service.
[V2] 一个customer service department manager的report:
从六个月前开始，有一个Cafe在每一个receipt上面都印了一个website address，是一个customer feedback page。所以每一个顾客都不难找到。到现在为止，该公司只收到一百多条complaints和不到一百条suggestions，而从有feedback page到现在该公司一共卖了三万杯coffee drink（总之是很大的一个数）。因此可以assume that顾客对这个公司的产品和服务fully satisfied，不需要改进提升之类。
1.        complaint少，未必代表顾客满意，可能很多人没有注意到这个网页的存在
2.        售出咖啡多，也未必代表质量和服务好，可能该店是附近唯一一家咖啡店

7月3次，6月2次，5月5次，4月2次（12）
V1一个新的服装企业 发展五年要开自己的retail store ，作者建议clients 购进这个企业的衣服，因为有很强的竞争力，而且CEO是原来很有名气的rock star （我总觉得是艾薇儿的那个clothes line）
V2.某集团的某产品在一些连里面销售不错。所以他们计划打算自己卖（在超市里面）。有一个投资经理忽悠客户叫他们赶紧买这家公司的股票。因为上面的原因。还有一个更搞笑的，该公司CEO是“前”摇滚明星。具有recognition知名度，能号召Young什么的购买力。
V3.讲的是一个young rising company 扩张了自己的业务，并且为了company的成功给出了两种预测——第一个是由于员工的极力推荐，可以使这个这个公司的发展获得成功。第二个是由于该company 的CEO是一个rock star，通过该CEO的star power也可以促使这个young rising company 获得成功

s

上月机经2次
说有间clothing is the new trend for youth apparel，然后financial analyst 建议investment firm to purchase this company based on the following。
因为：1.the company has been profitable in past 5 years  2.management has been very aggressive in expansion. They plan to open 125 stores this year   3. CEO is a former rock star and the album has been the top sales. The star power will be Influential
没有找到原题，上月寂静里曾经出现过，如下：
下面文字出现在某财务分析员写给咨询公司老板的memo上
某后起的服装公司专门生产迎合年轻人潮流的牛仔裤等休闲衣物，　之前五年都是通过零售商销售的，　销售连续增长。　　最近这家公司准备建立自己的销售渠道，在商场里设自己直营的专卖店。　我们建议客户马上去买他们的股票。　因为１，这家公司很有实力，管理很激进。　2,他家CEO是一个有若干金曲的前摇滚明星，在年轻人里有知名度，可以保证销量和品牌效应。

提供观点：
1、过去5年盈利不保证将来也会盈利，新的销售渠道的建立（改变销售渠道）可能会对销量产生负面影响
2、不充分：有实力管理激进不能推断出股东能获利
3、前摇滚明星有知名度有粉丝，但管理好公司还需要专业的CEO
4、前摇滚明星不能保证在未来的一代青年人中一直保持高知名度

7月5次，6月1次，5月5次，4月3次（14）
卖车店把豪华车放在广告中以及店中央可以比便宜的车得到更多的收入
上月机经3次
有一个卖汽车的公司在June的时候大力为他们的Luxury automobile做广告，luxury和inexpensive的mobiles的combined的sales很好；在February做的是 inexpensive的广告，就卖得不好。所以以后要大力做luxury的广告，可以吸引顾客，顾客一定会被吸引让后买很多，赚死了。

考古：
[v1]是一个Business Manager Memo的建议, 说6月份因为把luxury auto和inexpensive cars同时推广，得到了历史最高的销售记录。而二月份之推广了inexpensive car.所以以后应该吧 luxury car作为主打产品。
[v2] it said about in july, company advertised in local newspaper, combing selling luxury car and inexpensive car revenue. larter, the revenue  decreased when company just sales inexpensive along. it is genearlly what it said...
[v3]某公司经理说7月份该公司做广告大力宣传豪华汽车，同时把豪华汽车摆放在展厅重要位置，该公司的豪华汽车以及inexpensive的汽车销量很高；2月份主要广告宣传inexpensive汽车，同时把inexpensive汽车摆放在展厅重要位置。但是总体销量不高。所以经理总结说，要把宣传和展示豪华车作为重点，blablabla

提供观点：
1.        错误的认为trend会一直延续下去
2.        错误的由时间关系推因果联系
3.        方案不充分，没理由推断顾客一定会买昂贵的车
4.  revenue销售收入只是考察销售情况的其中一个指标，还应该考虑profit margin利润和ratio of profit利润率。某种程度上讲，利润和利润率比销售收入更重要，它反映的是一个公司的真正的盈利能力。(感谢lecit同学提供本条观点)

7月4次,6月1次，5月4次，4月4次（13）
AA：手机生产需要大量的贵金属，而贵金属的价格在过去十年中大幅变动。工厂过去的产量一直在增加，并预计将来也会增加。因此，立即购买大量贵金属会锁定变动并且达到利益最大化。
上月机经 4次
V1.手机厂的重要零件是贵金属,价格波动大,公司应该提前大量购买以确保利润不受损
[V2] 大概就是说有一个叫Cellophone公司作了一个plan，因为过去手机金属原料价格时高时低，现在有一个forecast说以后这个公司的cellphone division要expand而且会有high-volume purchasing，所以说要现在大量买入金属原材料，来lock cost。

考古：
V1说一个cell phone manufacturer， 要买一大批很贵的material 因为怕以后买价格会涨
[v2] AA关于手机和贵金属的关系，贵金属现在越来越贵，然后手机制造者要lock cost of metal，然后增加收益
提供观点：
1、过去十年趋势未必代表未来趋势
2.  即使提前采购了，该贵金属是否在决定手机成本中起重要作用？可能影响甚微
3. 即使在成本中起重要作用，但也未必能利润最大化，可能因此造成额外仓储费用或增加报损率

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6月3次，5月4次，4月7次（14）
v1一political leader说national parks前五年revenue下跌，那地方有mineral deposit, 要是改成mining company可以提供jobs和tax revenue，所以要把national parks改成mining company。
V2.将一个一tourism为经济主要来源的国家因为环境污染而使经济受到影响，然后在national park 发现mine deposit， 就说mining 可以给政府更多的taxes，并促进就业。 conclusion： permitting mining 对这个国家经济复苏有利。
V3.由于近五年的工业污染导致国家公园对游客的吸引力下降，从而国家公园收入降低。但是最近在国家公园地底下发现矿物质，如果对其进行开采则不仅可以解决了政府税收问题，解决国家公园收入问题，还可以提供大量的就业。因此认为开采矿物质是最好的复兴经济的办法。
1、采矿会加剧污染。缺少analysis of cost and benefit其导致的旅游业减少所带来的损失可能超过采矿业带来的收益。
2、失业的旅游业工人不一定具备成为矿工的技能
3、除去开矿外还可能有别的促进经济的政策
4、通过治理环境很可能重新振兴旅游业

7月6次，6月4次，5月4次，4月5次（19）
说航空公司利润去年降了了20%，列了3个理由，油价涨了，新开航线还是公司来，还有一个想不起来了....然后说其它公司都面临油价上涨，但有公司利润增加，所以不是油价的原因，结论想提高利润关新开的operation.
V2. Provincia Airline最近利润狂降,调查可能有两个原因:一是油价涨,二是他们开通新航线。.但是另一项调查表明其他航空公司也经历了油价上涨,但是利润也上涨,因此表明油价涨并不是我们公司利润狂降的唯一原因.为了提高利润,我们应该停止开通新航线。（好像狗说的是买新飞机？难道LZ读错了== ）
V3. Provincia Airline的利润降低了。可能有两个原因。1.rising oil prices 导致 fuel cost 上涨。2.它最近增加了5个城市的航班。而其他的航空公司也经历了rising oil prices但却没有增加那5个城市的航班，所以呢，原因2才是真正的原因。（我觉得些这个相对别的argument有点小难度...）
1.        其他航空公司也经历了油价上涨未必表示油价不是PA利润下降的原因，可能别的航空公司采用了省油型的飞机，并且合理安排了航线，以提高效率，而PA公司还是老型号的费油型飞机
2.        未必是5个新航线导致利润低，可能老航线竞争不过别家，上座率太低
3.        所以，关闭5条新航线也未必能挽救利润

7月4次，6月4次，5月1次（9）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of
Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
1. instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management未必能解决问题，可能员工更希望的是1-1 face to face的职业规划指导，而不是virtual的大会
2. survey代表性，因为communication的问题是回答了survey的人认为需要改善的，但是可能还有没有回答的人，所以即使instituted regular communications sessions有效，未必most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.
3. 调查的有效性：即使员工都回答了，但是未必他们真正关心的问题列在了survey里面

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4. issue模板 （410）
把题目改写一下      ? There has been an intense dispute over this controversial issue. Some people assert that.., while other people believe that… Given its complexity in nature there is no universal answer to this question. As a matter of fact whether one choice takes precedence over the other may quite depend on the specific situation. As far as I am concerned, I agree with the author’s general assertion that    if *** (即在作者的观点上，加上一些条件，有保留地赞同). (140-150)

论证1+举例 （70）

论证2+举例（70）

论证3+举例（70）

In conclusion, the issue that ...is complicated, requiring comprehensive analysis and subjective  judgement. Consequently there are no easy or certain answers. People from different background and with distinct profile will claim themselves proponents for their own perspectives. From the above mentioned reasons, I contend that...because....（50）

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5. arguement模板
In this argument, the author claims/concludes that… (作者的conclusion)To support his conclusion, the author points out that…. In addition, the author reasons that… Further more, he also assumes that … . （列出三个会攻击的地方）At first glance the arguement might seem somewhat appealing. However, close examination reveals that the reasoning lacks crucial supporting factors and therefore is not entirely logic and convincing. It is flawed in the following three aspects.(90)

高频理由（按频率由高到低排列）
每分段的结构：1）引用原文，引出logic flaw 2）展开解释 3）举反例 4）归纳总结
时序性因果攻击
Firstly, the author is engaged in ‘after this, therefore, because of this’ reasoning. the author’s solution rests on the assumption that A is the cause of B just because A happened before B. However, a mere sequence correlation does not necessarily prove a causal relationship. This reasoning is fallacious unless other possible/prospective causal factors have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps C. As a result, without detailed analysis of the real source of B, it would be rash and groundless to attribute B to A.

同时性因果攻击
Secondly, the author is engaged in ‘together with this, therefore, because of this’ reasoning.
the author’s solution rests on the assumption that A is the cause of B just because A coincided with B. However, a mere sequence correlation does not necessarily prove a causal relationship. This reasoning is fallacious unless other possible/prospective causal factors have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps C. As a result, without detailed analysis of the real source of B, it would be rash  and groundless to attribute B to A.

无因果关系
The author’s solution rests on the assumption that A is the cause of B . However, a mere correlation does not necessarily prove a causal relationship. In fact/On the contrary, A will bring negative impact on B.

不随时变攻击Moreover, the author unfairly assumes that A will remains unchanged just because of its historical reputation. Statistics or evidence from the past is not a good indicator to substantiate that the trend will continue in the future. The author overlooks that factors used to be favorable to A might change as time goes by and therefore that the same factors can no longer guarantee any future status.  In fact, it is possible that this trend will greatly fluctuate or even reverse given the external impact from…. For example, ….Consequently the position that … is weakened.

成本问题The author assumes that…. This assumption is never supported with any data or projections. Nor is there thorough cost-benefit analysis in the argument. If the increase of cost overweighs that of benefits…will fall in trouble of losing rather than gaining money. Additionally, the author fails to take into account contingencies caused by the …. such as labor and material costs, legislative moves, competition, market changes, and the national or international cycle , all of which can lead to the dropping profit. In short, this assumption must be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis of … versus other possible cost-cutting and/or profit-enhancing strategies.

调查类错误
样本随机/数量攻击the author asserts that… and therefore… The problem that seriously weakens the logic of this argument is that the samples for the survey are of little statistical reliability. The mere sample size alone doesn't indicate any information of its representativeness./the survey cited is based on too small a sample to be reliable. If…then…(假设样本数量(不)准确的方式) So unless information on…is provided/ it can be shown that the sample is typical of all general group, it is groundless to claim that…
忽略他因攻击Secondly, the author assumes that … was responsible for …. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While a___ is seemingly important factor in determining b____, it is hardly the only or even necessarily required element. This assumption overlooks other crucial criteria in determining … For example, …. Consequently, it is possible that … was unrelated to … in the manner required by the author’s argument.

错误类比攻击
Even if the reasoning may be sound in general sense成立, it is highly doubtful that strategies drawn from A are applicable to B. However, differences between these two clearly outweigh the similarities, therefore making the analogy much less valid. For example, 。。。. Accordingly, we can see that A and B are so dissimilar that B is unlikely to experience the same consequence if it adopts A’s strategies.


范围内推攻击 What’s more, the most egregious reasoning error in this argument is that the author uses evidence pertaining to a general group on the basis of a particular B. Even if the reasoning may be sound in general sense, the particular situation in which B is involved may not be representative of the entire general group. It is possible that... If this is the case, the claim that… is ill founded.

To sum up, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands. The evidences provided in the analysis do not lend strong support and therefore they fail to defend the conclusion the argument seeks to establish. To make the argument more convincing, the author is recommended to provide more information that...Additionally he will also have to demonstrate that...If the given factors discussed above had been included the reasoning would have been more meticulous and thus more logically acceptable. (90)
若实在不够字数，可在结尾段加入具体的说明作者如何没有successfully provide compelling evidences to 证明conclusion.

Sherryxqr

many   thanks @@@