myice

61. The following appeared as part of a recommendation by one of the directors of the Beta Company.
“The Alpha Company has just reduced its workforce by laying off fifteen percent of its employees in all divisions and at all levels, and it is encouraging early retirement for other employees. As you know, the Beta Company manufactures some products similar to Alpha’s, but our profits have fallen over the last few years. To improve Beta’s competitive position, we should try to hire a significant number of Alpha’s former workers, since these experienced workers can provide valuable information about Alpha’s successful methods, will require little training, and will be particularly motivated to compete against Alpha.”
β公司的一个经理人的一份建议书：
α公司通过在所有部门和所有层次裁减了15％的员工减少了工作人员，它还鼓励其他员工提前退休。如你所知，β公司生产部分和α公司类似的产品，但我们的利润在过去几年内下降了。为了提高β的竞争力，我们应该试着雇用大量的α的前雇员，因为这些有经验的工人将提供关于α成功方法的有用信息，而且基本不需要培训，并将更有动力与α竞争。
1.        According to the common sense the workers who are laid off are always the least effective and well-experienced.
2.        Whether the Alpha Company is successful or not is still open to doubt.
3.        The recruitment will bring benefit to the company and cost at the same time. No conclusion can be given until the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
4.        The products the two companies manufacture are just similar. The skills the Alpha company's workers own will not be applicable to the Beta company.

1.        A公司的雇员是否能提供有用信息还不知道。因为被说服退休的，很可能是效率低下的，从事非核心的工作。
2.        没有证据证明A公司是否利润上升，有可能也是下降，甚至下降的更快。所以A的雇员即使提供信息也未必有用。
3.        A与B是否有足够相似，很可能差很远。只有一些相似产品，不代表所有，而且很可能并不是这些产品导致的利润下降。
4.        很可能得到的利润不能补偿多雇佣的人员的cost。

A director of Beta Company suggests that Beta can improve its competitive position by hiring a significant number of former Alpha Company employees who have recently retired or been laid off. The director’s reasoning is that because Alpha manufactures some products similar to Beta’s, former Alpha employees would be experienced and need little training, could provide valuable information about Alpha’s successful methods, and would be particularly motivated to compete against Alpha. The director’s argument is problematic in several respects.
First of all, the argument presupposes that Alpha’s methods are successful. This is not necessarily the case. To the contrary, the fact that Alpha has laid off 15 percent of its employees in every division and at every level suggests that Alpha’s methods may have been unsuccessful and that downsizing was necessary for the company to minimize financial losses.
Secondly, the director assumes that the former Alpha employees hired by Beta will be well-trained and valuable. During a typical lay-off, however, the best and most experienced employees are typically the last to be laid off. By following the director’s advice, Beta would probably be hiring Alpha’s least efficient and least experienced employees—that is, those who would be least valuable to Beta.
Thirdly, the author assumes that Alpha and Beta are sufficiently similar so that former Alpha employees could provide special value for Beta. However, we are informed only that Beta manufactures “some products similar to Alpha’s.” It is possible that former Alpha employees have experience with only a small segment of Beta’s product line, and thus have little inside information of any value to Beta.
Finally, the claim that former Alpha employees would be motivated to compete against Alpha is partially unwarranted. While many of those who were laid off may be so motivated, those who retired early from Alpha probably departed on good terms with Alpha, and would in any event be unmotivated to reenter the work force.
In conclusion, the argument fails to provide key facts needed to assess it. To better evaluate the director’s suggestion, we would need more information about why Alpha reduced its work force, what type of workers left Alpha and under what circumstances, and how similar Alpha’s range of products is to Beta’s.

myice

62. The following appeared in the letters-to-the-editor section of a local newspaper.
“Muscle Monthly, a fitness magazine that regularly features pictures of bodybuilders using state-of-the-art exercise machines, frequently sells out, according to the owner of Skyview Newsstand. To help maximize fitness levels in our town’s residents, we should, therefore, equip our new community fitness center with such machines.”
本地报纸上给编者的信板块：
一份叫Muscle Monthly的健康杂志规律性地刊登使用最好的训练器械的健美运动员的照片。据skyview报摊的摊主说它经常卖完。为了提高我镇居民的健康水平，我们应该给我们的新健身中心装备这样的器械。
1.        The bodybuilders may just pretend to be using the state-of-the-art exercise machines while, in fact, their excellent body conditions are due to the use of other types of equipment. And, they just do so for the advertisement purpose.
2.        The circulation is just one of the indicators of the popularity of the magazine. What is more, I can find no direct relationship between the popularity of the magazine and the author's suggestion that we should equip the community with the state-of-the-art excercise machine.
3.        The machines for body building will not necessarily have the same effect on fitness.

1，        如果杂志卖光得快不一定是因为这个器材好，很可能是价钱便宜，和其他的内容。
2，        那些人很可能并不真正用这些机器，而只是摆出造型。
3，        如果是为了body-building的机器很可能不能fitness。比如，cardiovascular fitness。

In this argument the author concludes that the new community fitness center should be equipped with the state-of-the-art exercise machines featured in Muscle Monthly magazine. In support of this recommendation two reasons are offered: (1) Muscle Monthly contains pictures of bodybuilders using such machines, and (2) Muscle Monthly is a popular magazine, as evidenced by the fact that it frequently sells out at the local newsstand. This argument is questionable on two counts.
First, a major implication of the argument is that the bodybuilders pictured using the machines in Muscle Monthly magazine reached their state of fitness as a result of using these machines. The only evidence offered to support this contention, however, is the pictures in the magazine. It is possible that the bodybuilders pictured use different equipment for their workouts and are merely posing with the machines for advertising purposes.
Second, the author assumes that machines that are suitable for bodybuilding will also be suitable to help maximize the fitness levels of the town’s residents. This assumption is highly questionable. Machines designed to increase muscle development are significantly different from those designed to increase cardiovascular fitness. Consequently, it is unlikely that the machines pictured in the magazine will be of much use to help maximize the fitness levels of the town’s residents.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to show that the bodybuilders pictured using the exercise machines actually used the machines to reach their level of muscle development. Additionally, the author would have to show that the machines were suitable for increasing the fitness levels of the persons using them.

myice

63. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
“The Cumquat Café made a mistake in moving to a new location. After one year at the new spot, it is doing about the same volume of business as before, but the owners of the RoboWrench plumbing supply wholesale outlet that took over its old location are apparently doing better: RoboWrench is planning to open a store in a neighboring city.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
地方报纸的商业版：
Cumquat咖啡店搬到新地址是个错误。到新址的一年以后，它的营业额和以前基本一样。但在它的原址开业的提供铅管批发出口的Robo Wrench的店主显然做的更好。Robo Wrench正计划在临近城市开一家店。
1.        False analogy
2.        Other factors other than location that may contribute to the faliure of the Cumquat Cafe should be considered and ruled out.
3.        Likewise, there may be some other factors that will explain the success of the success of the RoboWrench plumbing.
4.        One year's poor performance is too wake an evidence to conclude that the Cafe has made a mistake to relocate.

According to this newspaper article, the Cumquat Cafe made a mistake by relocating one year ago. The author supports this claim by pointing out that Cumquat is doing about the same volume of business as before it moved, while RoboWrench plumbing supply outlet, which took over Cumquat’s old location, is apparently “doing better” because its owners plan to open a new outlet in a nearby city. This argument suffers from several critical flaws.
To begin with, the two businesses are too dissimilar for meaningful comparison. Cumquat’s old location may simply have been better suited to hardware, plumbing, and home improvement businesses than to cafes and restaurants. The article’s claim that Cumquat made a mistake in moving fails to take this possibility into account.
Secondly, the article’s claim that RoboWrench is “doing better” since it took over Cumquat’s old location is too vague to be meaningful. The author fails to provide a second term of this comparison. We are not informed whether RoboWrench is doing better than before it moved, better than other plumbing stores, or better than Cumquat. This uninformative comparison is worthless as evidence from which to judge the wisdom of Cumquat’s decision to relocate.
Thirdly, the claim that RoboWrench is doing better is unwarranted by the evidence. The mere fact that RoboWrench plans to open a new store in a nearby city does not by itself establish that business is good. It is possible that the purpose of this plan is to compensate for lackluster business at the current location. Or perhaps the RoboWrench owners are simply exercising poor business judgment.
Finally, the claim that Cumquat made a mistake in moving may be too hasty, since the conclusion is based on only one year’s business at the new location. Moreover, given the time it ordinarily takes for a business to develop a new customer base in a new location, the fact that Cumquat’s volume of business is about the same as before it moved tends to show that the move was a good decision, not a mistake.
In conclusion, the claim that Cumquat’s move was a mistake is ill-founded, since it is based on both poor and incomplete comparisons as well as on a premature conclusion. To better assess the argument, we need to know what the author is comparing RoboWrench’s performance to; we also need more information about the extent of RoboWrench’s success at this location and why its owners are opening a new store.

小气猫猫

辛苦

myice

64. The following appeared in a memorandum from the Director of Human Resources to the executive officers of Company X.
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗？”)
1.        The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2.        How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3.        Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.

1，        调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
2，        改进方法是否充分？是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见

The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.

myice

67. The following appeared in an article in a travel magazine.
“After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month. And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today’s business traveler.”
旅游杂志的文章：
航空工业开始要求航空公司报告他们的准时率以后，Speedee航空公司达到准时率最高，每月他的航次有超过89％都准时到达。现在，Speedee提供了更多的航次到更多的地方。显然，Speedee是今天的商务旅行者最好的选择。
1.        提供了更多航次，准时率可能下降。
2.        准时不是最好选择的唯一标准。服务，价格也很重要。
3.        没有说到底几个月。如果报告只有两个月，不足以说明问题。其他公司的准时率说不定正在稳步上升
4.        由于是航空公司自己报告，数据可能被扭曲: We can image that the main purpose of airline industry to require on-times rates report is to identify and award the best companies, it is easy to suppose that the Speedee Airlines, which can benefit from its report, give unfair and inaccurate date.

A travel magazine article claims that Speedee Airlines is the best choice for today’s business traveler. To support this claim, the author points out that Speedee has ranked first in terms of on-time arrival rate since the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates. The claim is also based on the assertion that “Speedee new offers more flights to more destination than ever before.” This argument suffers from several critical flaws.
First of all, the claim relies on a couple of unwarranted assumptions. One assumption is that on-time rates, number of flights, and destination choices are the only features of airlines service that determine how a particular airline would rank overall for a business traveler. However, the author of this article ignores other factors such as fare prices and discounts, safety record, baggage-handing, and in-flight amenities. Another assumption is that Speedee’s overall on-time record affects business and no-business travelers equally. However, this is not necessarily the case. Speedee may have a poorer record for commuter flights, which are popular among business travelers, than for other flights. If so, the conclusion that Speedee is the best choice for the business traveler would be seriously undermined.
Secondly, the author’s claim that “Speedee now offers more flights to more destinations than ever before” is too vague to be meaningful. We are not informed how many flights or how many destinations were previously offered or how many are offered now. Moreover, the article makes no comparison with other airlines regarding these features. Without these comparisons, the claim is worthless as a reason for choosing Speedee over another airline.
Thirdly, the article fails to indicate how long ago the industry began requiring airlines to report on-time rates. If the requirement was imposed recently, then the brief reporting period may be insufficient to show that the airlines’ relative on-time performance will continue in the future. Moreover, the article fails to provide evidence that all airlines, regardless of on-time record, actually reported, or that the reports are accurate.
In conclusion, the article’s claim that Speedee is the best choice for the business traveler is unsubstantiated and may be too hasty. To better evaluate the article’s claim, we need more information about Speedee;s other features that contribute to its overall appeal, about its on-time record for commuter flights specifically, and about the integrity and length of the reporting upon which the ranking was based.

myice

68. The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an investment firm.
“Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity. Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed. Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario’s chief executive was once on the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.”
投资公司计划部的备忘录：
将太阳能转化为电能的几种设备的成本最近降低了。而且，一些令人兴奋的转化太阳能的新技术正在研究和开发中。因此我们可以预期作为发电原料的太阳能将变得比媒和石油更便宜更吸引人。我们应该鼓励给新的太阳能动力产品制造商Solario投资。毕竟Solario的CEO曾是Ready－to－Ware（一家在其新近成立后表现出众的软件工程公司）的财务计划团队中的一员。
1.        The decrease of the cost of several types of equipment does not necessarily guarantee the reduction of the overall cost of the convertion of solar energy into electicity.
2.        It is still too early to say that the technologies for converting the solar energy that are being researched and developed will certainly make the solar energy cost efficient and attractive.
3.        Even if the cost reduction of the solar energy is immediately accessible, it is still imprudent to say the solar energy is more attractive compared with the coal and oil as a source of electrical power.
4.        The former performance of the CEO does not guarantee the future success of the Solario. From the autor's assertion, the CEO's ability to manage this solar energy company is, in fact, somewhat dubious, because he or she once was on the financial planning team for Ready-to-ware, which is in the industry completely different from the Solario.

1，        除了价钱之外很可能有别的因素让人更喜欢石油。
2，        不知道cost下降后是否仍然比石油等的价钱高。而且研究也未必能成功.
3，        财务顾问不一定能做好CEO。

In this argument the planning department of investment firm reaches the conclusion that the firm should encourage investment in Solario—a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. The basis for this recommendation is the expectation that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than other forms of energy. This expectation is based on recent declines in the cost of equipment used to convert solar energy into electricity and on new technologies that are being developed for this purpose. An additional reason give in support of this recommendation is that Solario’s chief executive was a member of the financial planning team for a company that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation. While this argument has some merit, there are a few assumptions that deserve attention.
In the first place, the author assumes that the previous business experience of Solario’s chief executive will be an asset in the development of the new company. While this may be the case, the fact that the two companies deal in vastly different products is cause for some concern. The executive’s expertise in the software-engineering business will not necessarily be applicable to the solar-powered products business.
In the second place, the author assumes that the major impediment to the use of solar-powered products is the cost of solar energy and that, given a choice, consumers would prefer products powered by solar energy over those powered by energy derived from coal or oil. On the face of it, this assumption seems acceptable; but it may be that there are other factors besides cost that make solar energy less desirable than other forms of energy.
In conclusion, this argument is convincing. To strengthen the argument additional evidence indicating consumer preference for solar-powered products over products powered by conventional forms of energy would be desirable.

myice

70. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of a company that makes shampoo.
“A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects. Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.”
生产香波的公司的主席的备忘录：
一份广泛出版的研究声称HR2，我们的香波里的一种化合物，长期使用后可能导致脱发。但是，这项研究只包括500个样本。此外，过去的一年里我们并未从我们的顾客那里接到投诉，而且一些我们的竞争者在一瓶香波里使用的HR2比我们的还要多。因此，我们不必考虑用更贵的替代物替代我们的香波里的HR2。

The president of the company that produces Glabrous Shampoo argues against removing the ingredient HR2 from the shampoo even though a scientific study claims that prolonged use of HR2 can contribute to hair loss. Three reasons are cited as the basis for this decision. First, it is argued that since the scientific study involved only 500 subjects, it can be disregarded. Second, none of Glabrous’ customers have complained of problems during the past year. And, finally, Glabrous’ competitors use more HR2 per bottle than Glabrous. The president’s decision is problematic in several respects.
To begin with, the fact that the scientific study on HR2 involved only 500 subjects is insufficient grounds to dismiss the results of that study. If the subjects for the study were randomly chosen and represent a diverse cross section of the population of shampoo users, the results will be reliable regardless of the number of participants.
Next, the scientific study determined that prolonged use could contribute to hair loss. While “prolonged use” was not defined in the memorandum, the fact that none of Glabrous’ customers have complained of problems during the past year is not a reliable reason to believe that problems will not arise in the future.
Finally, the fact that Glabrous’ competitors use more HR2 in their products than Glabrous uses is irrelevant to the question of whether Glabrous should remove HR2 from its product. Moreover, rather than providing a reason for not removing the compound, this fact serves better as a reason for doing so. By removing HR2 from its product Glabrous could gain an edge over its competitors.

myice

72. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部
1.        A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend.
2.        The past three months' trend does not guarantee the same in the future.
3.        Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the author's suggestion groundless.

1，        降低和上升，是否存在必然的关系。忽略他因。
2，        三个月的时间是否能说明一种趋势？

Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year’s sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.

myice

86. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a daily newspaper.
“Company A has a large share of the international market in video-game hardware and software. Company B, the pioneer in these products, was once a $12 billion-a-year giant but collapsed when children became bored with its line of products. Thus Company A can also be expected to fail, especially given the fact that its games are now in so many American homes that the demand for them is nearly exhausted.”
日报的商业版：
公司a在视频游戏的硬件软件方面有很大的国际市场份额。公司b是这些产品的先锋，而且曾经一度是年收入120亿元的巨人，但在孩子们厌倦了它的系列产品后崩溃了。因此公司a也将失败，考虑到它的产品已经占据了那么多的美国家庭，对他的需求已经接近枯竭。
1，        类比错误。是否由share导致的。
2，        A很可能生产出新的产品。

In this argument the author reasons that the failure of Company B portends a similar fate for Company A. The grounds for this prediction are similarities that exist between the two companies. The line of reasoning is that since both companies produce video-game hardware and software and both enjoy a large share of the market for these products, the failure of one is a reliable predictor of the failure of the other. This argument is unconvincing.
The major problem with the argument is that the stated similarities between Company A and B are insufficient to support the conclusion that Company A will suffer a fate similar to Company B’s. In fact, the similarities stated are irrelevant to that conclusion. Company B did not fail because of its market share or because of the general type of product it produced; it failed because children became bored with its particular line of products. Consequently, the mere fact that Company A holds a large share of the video-game hardware and software market does not support the claim that Company A will also fail.
An additional problem with the argument is that there might be relevant differences between Company A and Company B, which further undermine the conclusion. For example, Company A’s line of products may differ from Company B’s in that children do not become bored with them. Another possible difference is that Company B’s share of the market may have been entirely domestic whereas Company A has a large share of the international market.
In conclusion this is a weak argument. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to show that there are sufficient relevant similarities between Company A and Company B as well as no relevant differences between them.