pansy

提纲：
1.        没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.
2.        还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
3.        错误类比，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。
4.        过去推将来，不对。很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。
OverSimplification--the decline in the school dropout rate and the use of interactive computer instruction do not necessarily imply causality
All Thing Equal--just because the computers worked in one subject does not mean that they will work in all subjects, so they might not want to implement it "throughout the curriculum"
InsufficientSample--the evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it.  The fact that some graduates reported some impressive achievements in college does not necessarily allow us to establish the general conclusion that the computer instruction is helping students to achieve success.  Unless it can be shown that the school does not usually produce graduates who report impressive achievments, and it can also be shown that the computer instruction influenced the students to make those achievements the conclusion drawn is unwarranted.

A. First of all, this argument commits a fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
B. Second, the conclusion is based on the gratuitous assumption that Nova High School’s “success” in using interactive computer instruction in only three subjects would ensure a similar sweeping success in adopting computer instruction throughout the curriculum of all schools in the district.

pansy

17. xiangyanyan; hikarugaara 2次
The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.” (pool第106题)

pansy

提纲：
1.        More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.
2.        the survey is doubtful
3.        It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net.

pansy

18. pattern; serene301 2次
The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine.
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.” (pool第40题)

pansy

19. likesunny; daier; lukeshi88; euphoriaK; jack3939889 5次
上月的作文狗，cereal的那个，75%的人觉得味道比较好，还有包含Vitamin K，这个特点应该表现在新的包装上~
考古
V1 the Cunch(貌似) Breakfast cereal contain 20% more nutrients than any other cereal in the city XXX. Moreover, in the survey conducted by us, 75% consumers prefer to the taste of Cunch Breakfast cereal than other cereal products. However, 消费者似乎并没有显著的青睐这个cereal。Therefore, in order to increase the sales, we should redesign the front of the Cunch Breakfast box with detailed information about the two features mentioned above(即多20%的营养，75%认为口味出众) (题库里没找到) 3次
V2说一个cereal的厂家的备忘录：认为该厂出产的cereal的一大优势是包含vitamin K。另外在一项调查中，有75%的人表示喜欢cereal口味。但是现在销售量降低。建议在做广告中更换包装盒，并注明该cereal的两大优势（就是包 含vitamin k和口味好）。
V3 一下来自公司营销总监的备忘录：一家生产cereal 公司生产的cereal含有的维生素k的数量比竞争对手都要多20%，而且一项调查显示75%的顾客认为该公司生产的cereal比竞争对手都要好，但是 该公司的销售量并不高。因此营销总监建议公司重新对包装盒进行设计，把该产品含有比竞争对手20%的vitamin K 和上述的那个调查贴在包装盒上。
V4关于cereals 的， 第一句说our cereals contains more vitamin k preserving …第二个就用survey  75%consumers favor its tastes 。。后面就说为了增加sales 吸引更多的顾客 应该redesign the front of the ..box.

pansy

20. chenys1990
The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.” (pool B4)

pansy

提纲：
Firstly, the solution to the problem, mentioned in the article, rests on an oversimplified analysis of the issue. The author commits “after this, therefore, because of this” reasoning. The line of the reasoning is that because recruitment of new employees occurred before the success or failure of the firm, the former event is responsible for the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless all other prospective causes of the changes in the firm have been considered and ruled out.
For example, perhaps the main products of the firm took up most of the markets several years ago but lost the competitive edge in the past two years; or perhaps recently the costs of materials were much higher then before, squeezing the profits a lot. Therefore any reason aimed at addressing the problems of firm must be based on more thorough investigation to gather sufficient data , in order to narrow down and locate the actual cause of the problem.

Secondly, the author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that the firm should not hire new employees. The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. Given that the firm always needs large number of employees to enlarge the sale market, so without the employees who equip the qualities of high level of skills and motivation, the firm would commit larger lost; or that the firm recently recovered the market, leading to the increased need of the staff to make up the lost in the profits previously. Thus it is impossible to conclude without the evidence that whether the current conditions are the same as the conditions used to be two years ago.

pansy

21. amanda621; csdianna 2次
George开了一个饭店在一个town 里面有大学 然后一种辣三明治卖的很好 他就要再开三家在隔壁town， profit will triple.

22. sailing0831
6月商店摆奢侈品 拿奢侈品做广告 结果整个店里不管是奢侈品还是正常产品 卖得都好   但是当摆普通商品的时候 生意就不太好  经理就建议 一年到头摆奢侈品。
(考古)
V1: AUTOMOBILE——6月的销售策略是陈列LUXURY MODEL,打LUXURY MODEL的广告，然后COMBINED SALES剧烈上涨。2月陈列MORE INEXPENSIVE MODEL，打INEXPENSIVE MODEL的广告，OVERALL SALES下降。
经历的结论：应该继续6月的策略，因为只要顾客踏入AUTO LOT然后看到L MODEL就会被吸引然后购买。
V2 :6月份的时候公司进行了advertising on parking lots and show room of luxury automotibles. And the sales increased significantly for both luxury and inexpensive models. 这证明这种投放广告的方式是有效的, 可以同时带来高级汽车(luxury)和普通汽车(inexpensive) 的销售增加. However, in Feburary, 同样针对inexpensive models的广告活动,没有带来sales的增长. 因此,公司应该在以后的广告活动中put the luxury models in front并center at luxury modles. 这样,现行可以maximize profits.
V3：一个汽车公司在JULY 与FEB 两个月做广告卖汽车一个是有关豪华汽车的一个月是不贵的汽车的然后得出结论后面逻辑错误百出很好写。

pansy

23. theozhang
The following appeared in a memorandum from the Director of Human Resources to the executive officers of Company X.
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.” (pool第64题)

pansy

提纲：
(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗？”)
1.        The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2.        How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3.        Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.

1，        调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
2，        改进方法是否充分？是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见