myice

 

15. The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as governor.

“Re-elect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy. Over the past year alone, seventy percent of the state’s workers have had increases in their wages, five thousand new jobs have been created, and six corporations have located their headquarters here. Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected. Adams’s opponent, Zebulon, would lead our state in the wrong direction, because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams’s economic policies.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

正在寻求重新选举为地方长官的Adams的广告宣传：
再次选举Adams，你将为在提升本州经济的过程中已被证实了的领导能力投票。仅在过去的一年中，全州有70％的工人的工资增加了，5000个新就业机会被创造，6个公司将他们的总部设在这里。最近的调查中多数回答者说他们相信如果Adams当选经济将会继续增长。Adams的竞争者Zebulon将把我们州引向错误的方向，因为Zebulon不同意Adams的多数经济政策。

1.        数据vague，物价水平和工资哪个长的更快？5000个就业机会和总体失业水平相比是不是微不足道？六个公司总部设在这里，有没有离开的？调查是由谁进行的，接受调查的又是谁，可信度怎么样？

2.        就算经济确实增长了也不一定是ADAMS的功劳

3.        以上两点没有说明，也就无法因为ZEBULON的经济观点与之相左而判定他上任就会使经济下滑。

 

This political advertisement recommends re-electing Governor Adams because he has a proven leadership role in improving the state’s economy. In support of this reason the author cites these statistics: in the past year, most state workers’ wages have gone up; 5,000 new jobs have been created; and six corporations have located in the state. Another reason offered for re-electing Adams is a recent poll, which indicates that most respondents believe the state economy would continue to improve if he were re-elected. Finally, the author claims that rival Zebulon would harm the state’s economy because he disagrees with Adams’ fiscal policies. This argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted claims.

To begin with, the statistics are intended to support the main claim that the state is economically better off with Adams as governor. But these statistics are vague and oversimplified, and thus may distort the state’s overall economic picture. For example, state workers’ pay raises may have been minuscule and may not have kept up with cost of living or with pay for state workers in other states. Moreover, the 5,000 new jobs may have been too few to bring state unemployment rates down significantly; at the same time, many jobs may have been lost. Finally, the poll indicates that six new corporations located in the state, but fails to indicate if any left.

Next, the poll cited by the author is described in the vaguest possible terms. The ad does not indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or how the poll was conducted. Until these questions are answered, the survey results are worthless as evidence for public opinion about Adams or his economic policies.

Finally, while we have only vague and possibly distorted evidence that the state is better off with Adams, we have absolutely no evidence that it would be worse off with Zebulon. Given that the state economy is good at the moment, none of the author’s reasons establishes that Adams is the cause of this. And neither do they establish that the state wouldn’t be even better off with someone else in office.

In conclusion, this argument is weak. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide additional information about the adequacy of state workers’ pay raises, the effect of the 5,000 jobs on the state’s employment picture, the overall growth of corporations in the state, and other features of the state economy. Also, the author must support the claims that Adams’ actions have caused any economic improvement and that in the future Adams will impart more economic benefit than would Zebulon.

myice

 

16. The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.

“Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields.”

Waymarsh城日报教育版的一篇文章：
过去的20年内，研究生毕业生发现找到在大学教授他们的学术专长的工作是很困难的。那些从Waymarsh获得研究生学位的要找到这类工作尤其困难。但在下个10年，寻找学术工作的人（包括那些Waymarsh大学的）的好日子要来了。人口统计趋势显示达到上大学年龄的人将在未来10年增加。我们可预期对那些在他们的领域寻找大学教学工作的人来说，工作市场将显著增大。

1.      适龄人口增加不一定上大学人数就一定增加

2.      就算上大学人数增加需要的大学老师也不一定增加

3.      就算需要的老师增加,waymarsh的就业也不见得会水涨船高.

 

1，         人口增加也不一定都上大学。很可能都选择了就业。

2，         even if we grant the preceding assumption上大学的人多了不一定需要更多老师，很可能大学通过增大一个班人数的方式，保持原有老师数；

3，         就算需要GRADUATED DEGREE的人，也不代表W也会benefit from this trend，缺少信息，它可能是一个质量不好的大学，学校不会从这里的人中挑选。foretold regarding the employability

Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market for all people seeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines. Moreover, the author argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends portend better times ahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important respects.

First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who attend college during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no means a certainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade would certainly nullify this expectation.

Second, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the additional assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in teaching positions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teaching specialties are in greater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of teaching positions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some fields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.

Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates in the future based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information about the reasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects for the future. It is probable, however, that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the past, the mere fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure that Waymarsh graduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.

In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an increase in the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects for Waymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.

myice

 

20. The following appeared in an article in a health and fitness magazine.

“Laboratory studies show that Saluda Natural Spring Water contains several of the minerals necessary for good health and that it is completely free of bacteria. Residents of Saluda, the small town where the water is bottled, are hospitalized less frequently than the national average. Even though Saluda Natural Spring Water may seem expensive, drinking it instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

关于健康和舒适的杂志上的文章：
实验室的研究显示Saluda自然泉水包含有益健康的几种矿物质且完全无菌。灌装此水的小镇Saluda的居民比平均水平的就医率要低，虽然saluda自然泉水可能看起来很贵，喝它而非自来水是一项对健康的明智投资。

1.      小镇居民就医率低可能还有很多其他的因素如：健康的生活方式，自然环境优越，饮食结构科学。

2.      该矿泉水所含的矿物质是否有别与普通的自来水作者并没有给出支撑的论据.而且单纯这几种矿物质不一定能满足人体需要.

3.      完全无菌并不一定对人体十分有好处,水体里的一些细菌是有益的.此外喝这种矿泉水显然不是摄取无菌水 的唯一途径,相比起来一种比较廉价的方式就是把水烧开.

 

Sample essay 1:

The argument that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health is not entirely logically convincing, since it lacks certain supporting factors.

Firstly, the argument assumes that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason why residents of Saluda are less frequently hospitalized than the national average. However, there is little evidence that this water is the only difference between this place and the rest of the country. And the reason why people in other places are more hospitalized are numerous and varied. There are so many other factors that would bring people in other places to hospitals, such as accidents, food contamination, illnesses, etc.

Secondly, the argument also assumes that the minerals in Saluda National Spring Water are the key minerals for the good health of the residents of Saluda. However, this may not be true. We need not only minerals to keep good heath but also various vitamins. Besides, our body needs more minerals than those contained in Saluda Natural Spring Water.

Finally, even if the Saluda water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda are less hospitalized, the argument still omits the fact that there is more than one way to keep drinking water free from bacteria. For instance, the most common practice is to boil water up to 100 degree Celsius and keep it at that degree for more than 5 minutes. Therefore drinking Saluda water to keep good health is not the only alternative.

Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the Saluda residents are less hospitalized does little to prove the conclusion that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water is a wise investment in good health since it omits the assumptions I have just raised. The argument might have been strengthened by making it plain that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda are less hospitalized, that the water contains all the major minerals essential for the human body, and that there is no other way to keep water from bacteria.

Sample essay 2:

In this argument the author concludes that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water (SNSW) is preferable to drinking tap water. Three reasons are offered in support of this conclusion: SNSW contains several of the minerals necessary for good health, it is completely tree of bacteria, and residents of Saluda—the town where it is bottled—are hospitalized less frequently than the national average. This argument is unconvincing because it relies on a variety of dubious assumptions.

The first questionable assumption underlying this argument that tap water does not contain the minerals in question and is not completely free of bacteria. This assumption is not supported in the argument. If tap water is found to contain the same minerals and to be free of bacteria, the author’s conclusion is substantially undermined.

A second assumption of the argument is that the water residents of Saluda drink is the same as SNSW. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is possible that Saluda is not the source of the bottled water but is merely the place where SNSW is bottled. No evidence is offered in the argument to dispute this possibility.

Finally, it is assumed without argument that the reason residents are hospitalized less frequently than the national average is that they drink SNSW. Again, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Perhaps the residents are hospitalized less frequently because they are younger than the national average, because they are all vegetarians, or because they exercise daily. That is, there might be other reasons than the one cited to account for this disparity.

In conclusion, this is an unconvincing argument. To strengthen the conclusion that SNSW is more healthful than tap water, the author must provide evidence that tap water contains harmful bacteria not found in SNSW. Moreover, the author must demonstrate that the residents of Saluda regularly drink the same water as SNSW and that this is why they are hospitalized less frequently than the national average.

myice

28. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit company’s projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations.”
地方报纸的社论：
通勤者对新的地铁的使用超过了运输公司的设计方案。但是，通勤者对运送人们去地铁站的往返巴士使用低于设计容量。如果运输公司希望通勤者乘往返巴士而不是开车去地铁站，他们必须或者降低巴士车费，或者提高地铁站的停车费。
1.        对原因估计的可能不对.由作者给出的他认为必须执行的解决方案来看,作者一定认为人们不坐往返巴士而是开车去地铁站的原因是巴士车费相对于地铁站的停车费来说比较贵.To begin with, by concluding that the transit company must either reduce shuttle fares or increase parking fees, the author assumes that these are the only available solutions to the problem of limited shuttle use.但事实原因可能还有很多.例如:巴士的环境不好速度比较慢中间间隔时间太长车站位置不好等等.
2.        相应的作者所提出的两个必须要执行的解决方案也就不一定实用.应对于上述提到的问题可能一个比较好的解决方案是:对巴士进行装修把车站设置在更为便利的地方提高巴士的车速缩短时间间隔.

inconvenient shuttle routing and/or scheduling adjust adopt mutually exclusive combination
The author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are mutually exclusive alternatives. impose However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either/or choice.
1，        没有排除他因，这两个是否是唯一的原因
2，        解决方案不是false dilemma。

The author concludes that the local transit company must either reduce fares for the shuttle buses that transport people to their subway stations or increase parking fees at the stations. The reasons offered to support this conclusion are that commuter use of the subway train is exceeding the transit company’s expectations, while commuter use of the shuffle buses is below projected volume. This argument is unconvincing because the author oversimplifies the problem and its solutions in a number of ways.
To begin with, by concluding that the transit company must either reduce shuttle fares or increase parking fees, the author assumes that these are the only available solutions to the problem of limited shuttle use. However, it is possible that other factors—such as inconvenient shuttle routing and/or scheduling, safety concerns, or an increase in carpools—contribute to the problem. If so, adjusting fares or parking fees would might not solve the problem.
In addition, the author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are mutually exclusive alternatives. However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either/or choice. Adjusting both shuttle fares and parking fees might produce better results. Moreover, if the author is wrong in the assumption that parking fees and shuttle fees are the only possible causes of the problem, then the most effective solution might include a complex of policy changes—for example, in shuttle fares, parking fees, rerouting, and rescheduling.
In conclusion, this argument is weak because the author oversimplifies both the problem and its possible solutions. To strengthen the argument the author must examine all factors that might account for the shuttle’s unpopularity. Additionally, the author should consider all possible solutions to determine which combination would bring about the greatest increase in shuttle use.

myice

31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
一家投资财经咨询公司的商务计划：
研究显示一个普通咖啡消费者的咖啡消耗从10到60岁随年龄增长，甚至在60岁以后，咖啡消费仍然保持很高。而一般的可乐消费者的可乐消费随年龄增加递减。在过去40年中这两个趋势都很稳定。由于在未来的20年内老年人口将显著增加，咖啡需求回增长而可乐需求会降低。因此，我们应该考虑将我们的投资从可口可乐转向雀巢咖啡。
1.all the things are equal 作者在得出这个推荐之前做了一个假设就是在未来的二十年中咖啡豆以及可乐的原料的相对价格不变.但这在这么长的一段时期是不可能的.很可能它们其中一种的原料相对于另外一种大幅度上升.由于相对成本的变化从而改变了相对价格也就改变了消费者的消费倾向.那么作者的建议就是完全靠不住的.
2.除了年龄因素很多其他的因素也会影响两种饮料的消费量例如某一代人可能在每个年龄段都比另一代人消费更多的可乐.除非作者排除这些其他因素,否则说理是gratuitous的
3.没有足够有力的证据表明该项研究结果就是可信的Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies.Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
the author can not justify his recommendation ill-founded 无正当理由的

1，        老人数增加不能导致年轻人数减少。是错误的推测。同时，即使老人增加，那么增加的老人很可能不是coffee drinker。
2，        过去和未来不一样，未来可能两种成本变化，价格发生很大变化。
3，        该研究结果不一定可信！

In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age. For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years, then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second, assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario reflects the facts, the firm’s recommendation would be ill-founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies. Moreover, while the phrase “studies suggest” may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.

myice

32. The following appeared in the editorial section of a West Cambria newspaper.
“A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service.”
一份西Cambria报纸的社论片断：
最近的对西Cambria的志愿救护服务的回顾显示出其对事故的平均应对时间比设在东Cambria的一个商业救护班要长。为了给事故受害者提供更好的医护服务并通过收取急救服务费来提高我们镇的税收，我们应当解散志愿救护并雇佣商业救护服务。
1.        对事故的反映时间诚然是评价服务质量的一个因素但并不是唯一的因素.所以仅仅因为东区的商业救护班的反映时间短就认定商业救护办的服务更好是gratuitous的.
2.        就算东区的商业班的服务质量更好也并不意味着,西区用商业班就会有一样的成效.因为东西区的情况是不同的.很可能西区的志愿者更有服务,献身意识.
3.        此外除非商业班收十分昂贵的服务费用或者有十分多的事故事实这些都是不可能的, 改成商业是不见得就可以给该镇增加很多税收的.所以把这一点作为理由是不正确的.
considerable revenue significant significance consequently consequence ... is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for ... ambulance-crew proficiency training emergency

1，        错误类比 两个城市不一样，很可能因为西和东的不一样，比如，路的情况traffic condition。可能东的车辆更好。服务的态度更好。
而且没有说东的志愿情况如何，很可能东的志愿比商业的快。
2，        草率的判断：就算是商业的更快，也不一定更好。反映时间不是唯一的因素，有其他——比如服务的质量，态度，器材等等。
3，        另外，除非商业可以charge considerable fees 或者 accident rate非常高，否则未必带来可观的revenue。

In this argument the author concludes that West Cambria can increase revenues and provide better care to accident victims by disbanding the volunteer ambulance service and hiring a commercial one. The author reasons that this change would yield additional revenues because service fees could be imposed for ambulance use. The author also reasons that the city would provide better service to accident victims because a commercial service would respond more quickly to accidents than a volunteer service would. The author’s argument is flawed in two respects.
To begin with, the author’s plan for raising revenue for West Cambria is questionable. Unless the service fees are considerable or the accident rate is extremely high, it is unlikely that significant revenues will be raised by charging a fee for ambulance use. Consequently, revenue generation is not a good reason to disband the volunteer service and hire a commercial service.
Next, the author’s belief that better patient care would be provided by a commercial ambulance service than by a volunteer service is based on insufficient evidence. The fact that the commercial service in East Cambria has a lower average response time than the volunteer service in West Cambria is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for all commercial services. Moreover, the author’s recommendation depends upon the assumption that response time to an accident is the only factor that influences patient care. Other pertinent factors—such as ambulance-crew proficiency and training, and emergency equipment—are not considered.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to show that substantial revenue for the town could be raised by charging service fees for ambulance use. Additionally, the author would have to provide more evidence to support the claim that commercial ambulance services provide better patient care than volunteer services.

myice

34. The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president.
“The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.”
Easy信贷公司的一个经营主管向董事长提交的一份计划：
如果我们将信用卡所得的利润中的一部分捐给一个知名的环保组织换取在我们的信用卡上使用他们的标识的权利，Easy信贷公司将在信用卡服务的竞争中得到很大好处。由于最近的民调显示，很多人都关心环境问题，这一计划将吸引新顾客，提高现有顾客的使用量，并使我们得到比最低利润率要高的利润率。
1环保组织所提供的标识所关心的方面和民众所关心的方面可能不一致
2关心环保问题不意味着他们就一定会采取一些具体的措施象是在这个例子里面购买这个公司的产品
The author assumes that the public's concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem-in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card.
3权衡了额外付出的成本和收益之后并不一定值得这么做.

1，        首先，关心环境的人，不一定是使用信用卡的。第二，关心环境问题的人，关心的issues不一定与该组织的相同。
2，        因果关系不明确：不一定人们关心环保就一定用使用信用卡的方式来表达。因为More often，人们可能采取更加直接的方式，比如直接donate money to the environmental organization.
3，        另外，利润率关系到收入和支出，很可能两个比较收入小于支出。

In this argument the author concludes that the Easy Credit Company would gain several advantages over its competitors by donating a portion of its profits to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of the organization’s logo on their credit card. The author reaches this conclusion on the basis of a recent poll that shows widespread public concern about environmental issues. Among the advantages of this policy, the author foresees an increase in credit card use by existing customers, the ability to charge higher interest rates, and the ability to attract new customers. While the author’s argument has some merit, it suffers from two critical problems.
To begin with, the author assumes that the environmental organization whose logo is sought is concerned with the same environmental issues about which the poll shows widespread concern. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case. It is possible that very few credit-card users are concerned about the issues that are the organization’s areas of concern; if so, then it is unlikely that the organization’s logo would attract much business for the Easy Credit Company.
Next, the author assumes that the public’s concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem—in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card. This assumption is unsupported and runs contrary to experience. Also, it is more reasonable to assume that people who are concerned about a particular cause will choose a more direct means of expressing their concern.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author must show a positive link between the environmental issues about which the public has expressed concern and the issues with which this particular environmental organization is concerned. In addition, the author must provide evidence to support the assumption that concern about a problem will cause people to do something about the problem.

myice

35. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the financial planning office to the administration of Fern Valley University.
“In the past few years, Fern Valley University has suffered from a decline in both enrollments and admissions applications. The reason can be discovered from our students, who most often cite poor teaching and inadequate library resources as their chief sources of dissatisfaction with Fern Valley. Therefore, in order to increase the number of students attending our university, and hence to regain our position as the most prestigious university in the greater Fern Valley metropolitan area, it is necessary to initiate a fund-raising campaign among the alumni that will enable us to expand the range of subjects we teach and to increase the size of our library facilities.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
财政计划办公室给Fem Valley大学的建议书：
在过去的几年里，Fem Valley大学经受了入学人数和入学申请的双重下降。原因可以从我们的学生那里找到，他们经常将低劣的教学和不适当的图书馆资源作为他们对学校的主要不满之处。因此，为了提高想加入我们学校的学生数，从而重新获得我们在大Fem Valley地区的最有声望的大学的地位，在校友中发动一个基金募集计划使我们能扩展教学科目改善图书馆的设备是十分必要的。
1，        增加教学科目和图书馆的型号并不一定就能使学生变得满意因为他们可能并不是对教学和图书馆的这两个方面感到不满
2，        入学人数和入学申请的下降可能是因为整个外部环境导致的而不是学校自己的问题
3，        没有提供学生对教学质量和图书馆不满意的具体证据.
4，        调查的本身就值得怀疑.
ability attract customer merit alleviate inadequate unfavorable economical conditions hearsay rumour scant anecdotal evidence  

The financial-planning office at Fern Valley University concludes that it is necessary to initiate a fund-raising campaign among alumni that will enable the university to expand the range of subjects it offers and increase the size of its library facilities. Its argument is based on a five-year decline in enrollments and admission applications together with the claim that students cite poor teaching and inadequate library resources as their chief sources of dissatisfaction with Fern Valley. The conclusion of the financial-planning office is not strongly supported by the reasons given.
To begin with, this argument depends on the assumption that providing a greater range of subjects and a larger library will alleviate the students’ chief sources of dissatisfaction. However, the students have not complained about inadequate course offerings or about the size of the library; their complaint is that the existing courses are poorly taught and that library resources are inadequate. Offering more kinds of classes does not improve teaching quality, and increasing a library’s size does nothing to enhance its holdings, or resources. Accordingly, the recommendation does not bear directly on the problem as stated.
Secondly, the proposal unfairly assumes that the recent enrollment and application decline was caused by poor teaching and inadequate library resources. It is equally possible that all colleges, regardless of teaching quality and library resources, have experienced similar declines. These declines may have been due to unrelated factors, such as unfavorable economic conditions, or an increase in high-paying computer jobs not requiring a college education.
Thirdly, the author provides no support for the claim that students are dissatisfied with the teaching and library resources at Fern Valley. It is possible that the claim is based on hearsay or on scant anecdotal evidence. Without more information about the basis of the claim, we cannot be sure that the financial-planning office is addressing the real problems.
In conclusion, the advice of the financial planning office is not well supported. To strengthen the argument, the planning office must provide evidence that students are dissatisfied with the range of subjects and with the library’s size, and that this dissatisfaction is the cause of the recent decline in enrollment and the number of admission applications. To better assess the argument as it stands, we would need to know whether the students’ attitudes were measured in a reliable, scientific manner.

myice

38. The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper.
“Because occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year, so did housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”
校园报纸的社论：
因为校园住宅的使用率在过去的学年中下降了，住宅收入也下降了。为了解决这个问题，校园住宅办公室应该减少可使用的住宅单元，从而增加使用率。同样的，为了不让学生选择住在校外，住宅办公室应该降低租金来扩大需求。
1，        入住率低可能是因为学生人数减少等原因造成的
2，        同时减少供给和降低房费可能会抵消入住率提高而带来的收入提高效应而有余
3，        就算不会完全抵消仍然有其他原因影响收入例如说学生进入后的维修等等。
boosting rental maintenance oppressive seriousness trivailize

1，        忽略他因：单纯地说问题所在是rent. 但实际上可能有很多其他的因素：房子的condition, security, cleaning service，noisy surroundings等等。
2，        过去不能推广到未来：很可能变化了——比如enrollments of students have sharply increased。所以，很可能减少available的数量可能不是合适的做法。
3，        减少提供的房子，降低房租，很可能导致收入下降。

The author of this article argues that, to reverse declining revenues from campus housing rentals, campus housing officials should decrease the number of available housing units and reduce rent prices on the units. The author’s line of reasoning is that fewer available units will limit supply while lower rents will increase demand, thereby improving overall occupancy rates, and that the resulting increase in occupancy rates will, in turn, boost revenues for the campus. This reasoning is unconvincing for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that boosting occupancy rates will improve revenues. All other factors remaining unchanged, this would be the case. However, the author proposes reducing both the supply of units and their rental prices. Both of these actions would tend to reduce revenues. The author provides no evidence that the revenue-enhancing effect of a higher occupancy rate will exceed the revenue-decreasing effect of reduced supply and price. Without such evidence, the argument is unconvincing.
Secondly, the author assumes that lowering rents will lead to higher revenues by increasing demand. However, it is possible that demand would decrease, depending on the extent of the rent reduction as well as other factors—such as overall enrollment and the supply and relative cost of off-campus housing. Moreover, even if demand increases by lowering rents, revenues will not necessarily increase as a result. Other factors, such as maintenance and other costs of providing campus housing units and the reduced supply of rental units might contribute to a net decrease in revenue.
Thirdly, in asserting that lowering rental rates will increase demand, the author assumes that current rental rates are causing low demand. However, low demand for student housing could be a function of other factors. For instance, the student housing units may be old and poorly maintained. Perhaps students find the campus housing rules oppressive, and therefore prefer to live off-campus; or perhaps enrollments are down generally, affecting campus housing occupancy.
In conclusion, the author of this editorial has not argued effectively for a decrease in the number of available campus housing units and a reduction in rental rates for those units. To strengthen the argument, the author must show that a rent reduction will actually increase demand, and that the revenue-enhancing effect of greater demand will outweigh the revenue-reducing effect of a smaller supply and of lower rental rates.

myice

39. The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
Avia航空的部门备忘录：
平均地，去年乘坐Avia的1000个乘客中有9个针对我们的行李处理流程写了投诉信。这说明虽然有大约1%的乘客对这一流程表示不满，乘客的主体对它还是满意的。所以对流程的重新审查对我们要保持和提高Avia的乘客数这一目标不是很重要的。
1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？
2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉
3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivailize

1，        没有complaint不代表没有不满。
2，        没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。

The conclusion in this Avia Airlines memorandum is that a review of the airline’s baggage-handling procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia passengers. The author’s line of reasoning is that the great majority of Avia passengers are happy with baggage handling at the airline because only one percent of passengers who traveled on Avia last year filed a complaint about Avia’s procedures. This argument is problematic in two important respects.
First, the argument turns on the assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with the airline’s baggage-handling procedures. However, the author provides no evidence to support this assumption. The fact that, on the average, 9 out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It is possible that many passengers were displeased but too busy to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more complete information about passengers’ attitudes, we cannot assume that the great majority of passengers who did not complain were happy.
Secondly, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might distort the seriousness of the problem. Given that most modern aircraft carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is possible that Avia received as many as 4 or 5 complaints per flight. The author unfairly trivializes this record. Moreover, the author fails to compare Avia’s record with those of its competitors. It is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-handling complaints last year. If so, Avia’s one percent complaint rate might be significant enough to motivate customers to switch to another airline.
In conclusion, the author has failed to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-handling procedures at Avia Airlines is not needed to maintain or increase the number of Avia’s passengers. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least provide affirmative evidence that most Avia passengers last year were indeed happy with baggage-handling procedures. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the numbers of Avia passengers per flight last year and about the baggage-handling records of Avia’s competitors.