求助：GWD-18-22

elvisc

想请教一下这道题应该怎么解？答案是C但是我觉得应该是D。。。
In each of the past five years, Barraland’s prison population has increased.  Yet, according to official government statistics, for none of those years has there been either an increase in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained.  Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A.    In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide.
B.    Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction.
C.    Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.
D.    Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.
E.    The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago.

Calcium99

还是不太明白D选项，D说假释的人减少了，那么能够weaken结论啊?
比如10个罪犯，以前5个被假释，那么监狱里还有5个；现在只有1个被假释，那么

监狱里还有9个。也就是说假释减少同样引起监狱人口增多啊，也就weaken了题目

所说的监狱人口增多是由于定罪率提高引起的啊。

谁帮忙解释下啊，谢谢！

elvisc

谢啦~~我明白出题人的思路了 我之前想的是，犯罪总量不变，假释的人少了，说明他所判刑法是变化了，我就suppose了判的有期徒刑增多，所以监狱里的人数增多。不能这么跳跃的 呵呵

christinaryt

监狱人口增加，要么是进去的多了，要么是出来的少了。本题错误在于只着眼

于进去的人多了。D 违规假释的少了，应该增加人口，所以不是weaken啊。

Gabby308

我的想法是，CD seems very close, but different
C.    Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.----解释了为什么监狱人数增加，但是犯罪率没有提高的原因，反驳结论：offer other possibility.
D.    Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.-----只能说明监狱人数不变，却没有说“为什么增加” 其实这是个shell game的选项，说的是Premise的内容，但是结论却是无关的

overdrivewang

D选项说是被假释的人少了，那还是说明the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase啊，是strengthen了。C是weaken，10年前体制改革，判刑时间更长了，使得近5年的人口增多