7月5日换题库了——7月GMAT作文新题汇总AA(12-26题)

underbab

12．

题库原题： AA106. The following
appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of
the Frostbite National Bank.

“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to
open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known
for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even
though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow.
Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”

感谢sweetwade

范文：In this memorandum the loan department of Frostbite National Bank recommends against approval of a business loan to a local group that wants to open an ice cream parlor. In support of this decision the loan department points out that Frostbite has a reputation for cold winters and sales of ice cream decrease in cold weather. This latter point is buttressed by the fact that Frostbite’s only ice cream parlor suffered a 10 percent decline in net revenues the previous winter. The loan department’s decision is questionable for the following reasons.

To begin with, since it is reasonable to expect a decline in ice cream sales during winter months, it is difficult to assess the relevance of the fact that Frostbite has cold winters to the potential success of the Kool Kone franchise. Common sense suggests that this fact would be significant only if it turned out that Frostbite’s winter season lasted 9 or 10 months as it does in arctic regions. In that case slow sales could be expected for most of the year and the loan department’s opposition to the loan would be readily understandable. If, on the other hand, Frostbite’s winter season lasts only a few months and the remainder of the year is warm or hot, it is difficult to comprehend the loan department’s reasoning.

Next, the loan department assumes that the Frigid Cow’s decline in net revenue last winter was a result of slow sales occasioned by cold weather. While this is a possible reason for the decline, it is not the only factor that could account for it. For example, other factors such as poor business practices or lack of inventory could be responsible for the Frigid Cow’s loss of revenue. The loan department’s failure to investigate or even consider these and other possible explanations for the Frigid Cow’s decline in revenue renders their decision highly suspect.

In conclusion, the loan department’s decision is ill-founded. To better evaluate the decision, we would need to know more about the length and severity of Frostbite’s winter season. Moreover, evidence would have to be provided to support the assumption that the Frigid Cow’s loss of revenue last winter was a direct result of the cold weather.

underbab

26. No.9 The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
9. 财经杂志的意见栏：
一般而言，中年消费者的零售消费额的39％用于专卖店的商品何服务。而在年轻一些的消费者中这一比例仅有25％。由于中年消费者的数量在下一10年中将大幅增长，专卖店可以预期他们的销售额会有大幅增长。进一步，为利用这一趋势，这些店应该开始将一些吸引年轻消费者的商品替换为吸引中年消费者的商品。
感谢francislaw
提供观点：
1、The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author.
2、all things are equal
3、Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset
4、by the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.
从黄金80篇里找了三篇范文
Sample essay 1:
The argument that department retail sales will increase in the next 10 years and thus department stores should begin to replace products to attract middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it omits certain crucial assumptions
First of all, the argument ignores the absolute amount of retail expenditure of middle-aged and younger consumers devoted to department store products and services. Although younger consumers spend a smaller percentage of their retail expenditure to department store products than do the middle-aged consumers, they might actually spend more in terms of the absolute amount.
Even if middle-aged consumers are spending more than younger ones in department stores, the argument ignores the possibility that the trend may change within the next decade. Younger consumers might prefer to shop in department stores than in other types of stores, and middle-aged consumers might turn to other types of stores, too. This will lead to a higher expenditure of younger consumers in department stores than that of middle-aged consumers.
Besides, the argument never addresses the population difference between middle-aged consumers and younger ones. Suppose there are more younger consumers than the middle-aged ones now, the total population base of younger consumers will be bigger than that of the middle-aged ones if both of them grow at the same rate in the next decade. Thus there will be a bigger younger consumer base.
Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been more convincing by making it clear that the absolute population of middle-aged consumers are higher than that of the younger consumers and the number will continue to grow in the next decade, and that the middle-aged consumers will continue to spend more money in department stores than younger consumers do in the next decade.
Sample essay 2:
The argument that retailers should replace some of the products intended to attract the younger consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument omits the assumption that the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers are the same. If the business volume of the middle-aged consumers’ 39% is smaller than that of the younger consumers’ 25%, the retail sales will not increase during the next decade.
Second, even if the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers were the same in the last decade, the increase of the middle-aged people in the next decade is not the same as the increase of the retail expenditure, for the retail trade depends more on such factors as the economic circumstances, people’s consuming desire.
Finally, the argument never assumes the increase of the younger consumers within the next decade. If the younger consumers increase at the same rate and spend the same amount of money on the goods and services of department stores, the retailers should never ignore them.
Thus the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the growing number of middle-aged people within the next decade does little to prove the conclusion—that department stores should begin to replace some of their products to attract the middle-aged consumers since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the business volumes of both types of consumers are the same and comparable, that the increase of a certain type of consumers are correlated with the increase of the retail sales, and that the growth rate of the younger consumers are the same as that of the middle-aged consumers.
Sample essay 3:
Based on an expected increase in the number of middle-aged people during the next decade, the author predicts that retail sales at department stores will increase significantly over the next ten years. To bolster this prediction, the author cites statistics showing that middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage of their retail expenditure to department-store services and products than younger consumers do. Since the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise and since they spend more than younger people on department-store goods and services, the author further recommends that department stores begin to adjust their inventories to capitalize on this trend. Specifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory of products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory of products aimed at younger consumers. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily portend an overall increase in department-store sales. It does so only on the assumption that other population groups will remain relatively constant. For example, if the expected increase in the number of middle-aged people is offset by an equally significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will be little or no net gain in sales.
Second, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to attract younger consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the author assumes that the number of younger consumers will not also increase. Since a sizable increase in the population of younger consumers could conceivably offset the difference in the retail expenditure patterns of younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be unwise to make the recommended inventory adjustment lacking evidence to support this assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will remain relatively constant over the next decade.

underbab

25. A， 在家工作的比办公室工作的差
感谢zhaixuting
没有原题，上月考古
V3.it is financially unwise for people working at home。Author给了三点理由，第一，家里各种noisy neighbor, telephone call什么的会打扰到你；第二，在家里工作的人没有schedule；第三，在家会socially &professionally isolated，所以不能career advancement。Therefore,作者总结,对long-tern 在家工作earning less money than在办公室工作。
感谢athue提供的思路：
我从三个方面来说的：
第一，        无理假设，no evidence is stated in the argument so support that在家工作的人没schedule和会有很多distraction打扰到你。
第二，        忽略他因，作者没有考虑到career advancement的其他原因，只说员工如果不professional的话，那就没有career advancement。
第三，        没有全面考虑有关earning的多个方面，即使在office工作可能收入会高一些，但是员工的成本也高啦，比如transportation fee。

underbab

23. AA：S和P两个地方，有人说去P买retail space比较划算，因为S最近地产一直在涨，P的保持不变，所以S的房价肯定是overestimated的，买P划算。
  这个头脑风暴吧，很多可以攻击的
  1. S低价涨可能只是广告炒作，真正买的时候可能会有折扣之类的
  2. S的价格涨可能是更好的投资，证明当地经济不错
  3.P的价格不变可能本来就很高了，所以卖不动也就涨不了价值类的
感谢ashtreeliu

没找到题库。。。求考古

underbab

22. ARGUMENT考了H城市寻找新的经济增长点，吸引高科技企业和搬迁新地点，因为作为经济中心的失业率低于历史BALABALA新经济的基础应是科研和高科技？
感谢minaquan

题库原题：No.6 The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life:
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
6. 一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：
企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
提供观点：
1.        作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2.        作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。

1，        因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2，        H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3，        错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。

北美范文：
In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region’s manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor pool in Helios could support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, it’s unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.
Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the existing workers higher wages in order to lure them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing to companies seeking to relocate.
In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios.

underbab

21. 就是一个公司company X对其员工做调查，发现员工都表明improved communication level between employees and high-level manegement 是个很重要的因素还是什么的。然后这个公司就说，因为他们建立了一个communications sessions lead by high-level managers on a voluntary basis,so it is very likey that 他们符合了达到improved communication between employees and high-level之类的。（描述可能不是非常精准，但是89不离10了~）
感谢yanjunyi

题库原题：No.64 The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of
Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
64. 人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
employee survey得到的结果，所以增加高层管理层与员工之间的沟通
我从调查的可信性，调查者的利益，以及缺乏支持面对面活动达到目的的证据三个方面反驳的。

范文：下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗？”)
The Director of Human Resources concludes that most employees at Company X feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been satisfactorily addressed. Two reasons are offered in support of this conclusion. First, a survey of employees showed that the issue respondents were most concerned about was employee-management communication. Second, the company has since instituted regular voluntary sessions for employees and management designed to improve communication. The director’s argument is questionable for two reasons.
To begin with, the validity of the survey is doubtful. Lacking information about the number of employees surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to assess the validity of the results. For example, if 200 employees were surveyed but only two responded, the conclusion that most of the employees ranked employee-management communication as the most pressing issue would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out interpretations such as this, the survey results are insufficient to support the author’s conclusion.
Furthermore, even if the survey accurately ranks certain issues according to level of employee concern, the highest-ranked issue in the survey might not be the issue about which employees are most concerned. Why? The improvement most needed from the point of view of the employees might not have appeared as one of the choices on the survey. For example, if the list of improvements presented on the survey was created by management rather than by the employees, then the issues of greatest concern to the employees might not be included on the list. Lacking information about how the survey was prepared, it is impossible to assess its reliability. Consequently, any conclusion based on it is highly questionable.
In conclusion, the director’s conclusion is not well-founded. To strengthen the argument, additional information regarding the way in which the employee survey was prepared and conducted is required.

underbab

20. AA. Research indicating people who exercise are more healthy that those who don’t, so the company decide to build a gym to reduce the health insurance coverage, and expect the cost will be reduce by50%
感谢Kalahari98957

No.106 or 108.  "Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50 percent and thereby achieve a balanced town budget."
Argument: 根据一份research的调查显示，exercise regularly people hospitalized 的几率比 do not exercise 的people 小一半。因此
AA: 一个研究说锻炼的人去医院的次数少50％，所以城市要建健身设施，可以减少医疗保险投入50％，减少城市财政赤字。

提供观点：
1.        There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2.        Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3.        Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
北美范文：
In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.

underbab

19. 有个NOVA High School 2years ago采取一个方案，用computer interactive( teaching method还是怎样）运用到academic units里面，发现last year的有impressive performances for students in college(这里不确定），所以他建议所有的school in in the same district as Nova High都allocate budget到computer上面，为了保证future improved performances（大概其是这样，具体细节忘记了）
感谢giselleamzxx
No.99 or 101 The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”
105. Saluda镇的报纸的编者按：
Saluda统一高中提过超过200中不同的课程供它的学生选择。路那头一所小的多的私立学校提供80种基本的课程，但是它的毕业生升入大学的比例始终比统一高中要高。去除至少一半的课程而着眼于基本课程，我们可以改善统一高中学生的表现并省下税收收入。
典型的错误类比, 还攻击了错误因果, 和 不见得drop in number of courses will save tax.   
我想的理由是条件没有论证，没有排除他因，样本太少不具有代表性

提供观点：
1.        是否上大学更多就意味着更好呢？概念不对equate——可能去的学校不好。
2.        忽略他因。
3.        错误类比。情况不同，人数多可能必须提供多种课，同时也可能兴趣多。。。

1.        causal oversimplification
2.        false analogy
3.        It is likely that the smaller private school is incapable of offering more courses, or else its students can have better performance.
北美范文：
In this editorial the author recommends that Saluda’s Consolidated High School eliminate half of its 200 courses and focus primarily on basic curriculum in order to improve student performance and save tax revenues. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between Consolidated and the private school is the number of courses offered by each. However, other relevant differences between the schools might account for the difference in the proportion of their graduates who go on to college. For example, the private school’s students might be selected from a pool of gifted or exceptional students, or might have to meet rigorous admission standards whereas Consolidated’s students might be drawn from the community at large with little or no qualification for admission.
Next, the author assumes that the proportion of students who go on to college is an overall measure of student performance. While this is a tempting assumption, its truth is by no means obvious. If student excellence is narrowly defined in terms of the student’s ability to gain access to college, this assumption is somewhat reasonable. However, given a broader conception of student excellence that takes into account student’s ability to learn and apply their knowledge to new situations, its is not obvious that college admission is reliable indicator of performance. For example, students in non-academic disciplines could conceivably perform at high levels within these disciplines but nevertheless be unable to meet college admission standards.
Finally, the author assumes that savings in tax revenues will result from the reduced costs of funding the paired-down curriculum. This is not necessarily true. For example, it could turn out that both programs serve the same number of students and require the same number of classrooms and teacher.
In conclusion, the author has not made a convincing case for the recommendation to eliminate courses at Consolidated and focus on a basic curriculum. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to provide evidence that Consolidated and the private school were sufficiently similar to warrant the analogy between them. Moreover, the relationship between student performance and college admission and the mechanism whereby savings in tax revenues would be accomplished would have to be clarified.

underbab

18. AA：
题库原题：97. The following appeared as part of an article in a computer magazine.
“A year ago Apex Manufacturing bought its managers computers for their homes and paid for telephone connections so that the managers could access Apex computers and data files from home after normal business hours. Since last year, productivity at Apex has increased by 15 percent. Other companies can learn from the success at Apex: given home computers and access to company resources, employees will work additional hours at home and thereby increase company profits.”
感谢克克里斯蒂
电脑杂志的文章：
一年前Apex制造公司给它的经理们在家买了电脑，并支付电话费，这样他们就可以在工作时间以外从家里连接到Apex的电脑和数据文件。从去年开始，Apex的生产能力增长了15%。其他公司可以借鉴Apex的成功，提供家用电脑和到公司资源的链接，雇员会在家里加班并提高公司利润。

思路分析：
Notice that only managers were bought computers by Apex, whose productivity indeed rose 15 percent as the result. It is different from the assumption made in the article, which stated that if all employees were brought computers, they would work extra hours at home.  Managers ≠ all employees
A. This argument suffers from a fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
B. Next, the author fails to provide any evidence that installing home computers for managers really led to the increase of Apex’s productivity.
思路参考：
1 home access 和increase productivity因果关系错误
2 就算有关系，productity增加也不代表profits会增加
3 就算以上都对，用去年来推今后也是错的  
4 hasty generalization。有两个，一是把apex推广到所有公司，二是把managers推广到了所有employees

北美范文
In this article the author attributes Apex Manufacturing’s 15 percent increase in productivity over the past year to its decision to equip its manager with computers and paid telephone connections for their homes so that they would access company computers and files from home after normal business hours. On the basis of Apex’s experience the author recommends that other companies follow Apex’s example and provide computers and access to company resources to their employees. The author believes that such a policy would increase productivity and profits for other companies, just as it did for Apex. The author’s line of reasoning is questionable for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that Apex’s increase in productivity is due to its equipping its managers with home computers and access to company resources. However, the only evidence offered in support of this claim is the fact that Apex’s increase in productivity occurred after the home computers and after-hours access was provided. Unfortunately, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that Apex’s increase in productivity is not related to its decision to equip its managers with computers and after-hours access in the fashion required by the author’s argument.
Second, the author assumes that Apex and other companies are sufficiently similar to warrant a conclusion based on an analogy between them. Even if we accept the view that Apex’s increase in productivity was brought about by its policy of enabling its managers to work from home, differences between Apex and other companies could nullify this result. Lacking detailed information about Apex and the other companies in question it is difficult to assess the author’s conclusion.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide additional evidence for the claim that Apex’s decision to provide its managers with home computers and access to company resources was responsible for its increase in productivity. Furthermore, it would be necessary to show that Apex and other companies are sufficiently similar to justify the analogy between them.

underbab

17. 某航空公司的luggage-handling procedures只有1%的乘客抱怨，所以对他们增加乘客的目标是有帮助的
感谢cynthiaai
No.39 The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum:
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
40. Avia航空的部门备忘录：
平均地，去年乘坐Avia的1000个乘客中有9个针对我们的行李处理流程写了投诉信。这说明虽然有大约1%的乘客对这一流程表示不满，乘客的主体对它还是满意的。所以对流程的重新审查对我们要保持和提高Avia的乘客数这一目标不是很重要的。

提供观点：
1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？
2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉
3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivialize

1，        没有complaint不代表没有不满。
2，        没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。

北美范文：
The conclusion in this Avia Airlines memorandum is that a review of the airline’s baggage-handling procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia passengers. The author’s line of reasoning is that the great majority of Avia passengers are happy with baggage handling at the airline because only one percent of passengers who traveled on Avia last year filed a complaint about Avia’s procedures. This argument is problematic in two important respects.
First, the argument turns on the assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with the airline’s baggage-handling procedures. However, the author provides no evidence to support this assumption. The fact that, on the average, 9 out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It is possible that many passengers were displeased but too busy to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more complete information about passengers’ attitudes, we cannot assume that the great majority of passengers who did not complain were happy.
Secondly, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might distort the seriousness of the problem. Given that most modern aircraft carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is possible that Avia received as many as 4 or 5 complaints per flight. The author unfairly trivializes this record. Moreover, the author fails to compare Avia’s record with those of its competitors. It is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-handling complaints last year. If so, Avia’s one percent complaint rate might be significant enough to motivate customers to switch to another airline.
In conclusion, the author has failed to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-handling procedures at Avia Airlines is not needed to maintain or increase the number of Avia’s passengers. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least provide affirmative evidence that most Avia passengers last year were indeed happy with baggage-handling procedures. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the numbers of Avia passengers per flight last year and about the baggage-handling records of Avia’s competitors.