问GWDTN14-Q22,请NN帮助啊！

Fadaways

In each of the past five years, Barraland’s prison population has increased.Yet, according to official government statistics, for none of those years has there been either an increase in the number of criminal cases brought to trial, or an increase in the rate at which convictions have been obtained.Clearly, therefore, the percentage of people convicted of crimes who are being given prison sentences is on the increase.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?



A.In Barraland the range of punishments that can be imposed instead of a prison sentence is wide.

B.Over the last ten years, overcrowding in the prisons of Barraland has essentially been eliminated as a result of an ambitious program of prison construction.

C.Ten years ago, Barraland reformed its criminal justice system, imposing longer minimum sentences for those crimes for which a prison sentence had long been mandatory.

D.Barraland has been supervising convicts on parole more closely in recent years, with the result that parole violations have become significantly less frequent.

E.The number of people in Barraland who feel that crime is on the increase is significantly greater now than it was five years ago.
该题答案C如何理解？A怎么排除？
个人理解是条件：犯罪人口增加，庭审没增加或逮捕没增加，得出判刑比例增加。犯罪人口是否指被判刑的人？庭审没增加或逮捕没增加是否可以认为总基数没有增加？所以结论推出比例增加。那么要削弱，这里就是要扩大基数或者攻击这个比例关系，我认为A正确啊，判刑不是唯一刑法，攻击了这个比例关系。请NN指点！

laurawang2234

首先，“犯罪人口” 不等于 “监狱人口”。文章的第一个fact是"prison population"，而第二个fact是"# of crime cases"。

刑期变长->监狱里原本可以放出来的人现在仍旧在监狱里戴着->监狱里出去的人少了
犯罪总基数不变 -> 监狱里新囚犯的数量和过去相仿->监狱里进来的人不变

两者合一，你就可以得到监狱人口增加的结论了。

Fadaways

但C只是说了判刑的刑期变长了，这对结论比例上升有什么影响？
条件说：犯罪人口多了，总基数没变，所以判刑比例上升了（我的理解，NN可以指正）。那么判刑的刑期变长对比例有怎么样的影响啊？能不能再说得详细点？谢谢！

tania_zhang

C 说的是政策改变导致最低服刑周期的增加，从而使得监狱人口增加。销弱了比例理论
A 的意思是法律上的惩罚方式除了入狱之外还有其他很多种,这与监狱人口的增加没有直接的逻辑推导关系.

Fadaways

还是不明白，请NN帮忙详细教导一下！有点晕了 。。。

nymphl

In each of the past five years, Barraland’s prison population has increased. A 并没有说明为什么有这样的增加啊， 只是在陈述一直存在的现象。