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24.题库110 1次
The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.
“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”
Frostbite国家银行的借贷部门的备忘录:
我们不应该批准那个希望开一家KK冰激凌连锁店的特许店的本地团体的借贷请求。Frostbite以其寒冷的冬天而闻名,而冷天气意味着冰激凌的销售不利。比如,虽然Frostbite是个有10000人的镇子,它却只有一家冰激凌店Frigid Cow。尽管缺乏竞争,Frigid Cow的净收入去年冬天下降了10%。
提纲:
1. Other factors in deciding whether to give loan to a company such as the credit of the company should be considered.
2. Admittedly, the former and prospective performance of the company is also important when the bank have to make decision of whether or not should it give loan to a company. However, the author of the memorandum show no sufficient evidence to support his or her proposal that the bank should not give loan to Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors.
3. The statistics last year does not necessarily denote the future trend.
1, 排除他因,净收入下降的原因是什么?可能是经营不好,草率定价,甚至正因为缺乏竞争导致了这些。
2, 寒冷冬天不等于没有夏天,也不等于夏天短暂。不能说明原因。
1)False analogy:现有企业和新项目不能完全等同,存在的差异可能导致经营业绩不同;
2)Causal oversimplification:城市的寒冬并不能说明产品一定没有很好市场,要做深入的市场调研,研究消费者偏好,制定好的产品战略;
3)Hasty generalization:天气和现有企业两个证据不能充分得出不放贷的决定是明智的。
A. the arguer unfairly assumes that cold weather means slow ice cream sales.
B. In addition, the fact that Frostbite, a town of 10,000 people, has only one ice cream spot does not support the arguer’s conclusion that Frostbite cannot be an ideal location for the Kool Kone chain.
C.Finally, the arguer’s conclusion depends on the questionable assumption that since the Ffigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10% last winter, the Kool Kone chain will not succeed, either. |
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