请教PREP-57和58.请NN帮忙！

lucyloveandy

 

57.  

Roland:  The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

 

 

Sharon:  But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed.  So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

 

 

Sharon's argument is structured to lead to which of the following as a conclusion?

 

 

(A) The fact that 90% of the people know someone who is unemployed is not an indication that unemployment is abnormally high.

(B) The current level of unemployment is not moderate.

(C) If at least 5% of workers are unemployed, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage Roland cites.

(D) It is unlikely that the people whose statements Roland cites are giving accurate reports.

(E) If an unemployment figure is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those without jobs is even higher.

这个题答案是A.我选D.

58.  

 

 

Roland:  The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

 

 

Sharon:  But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed.  So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

 

 

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

 

 

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded

(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population

(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population

(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents

(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

 

答案是B。

没有思路。。。。两个题搞的我很晕。请NN解释一下！ 谢谢！

3smoviesalon

58题,看到题目简直都摸不到头脑,

lucyloveandy

哦~原来是这样的！ 明白了，57题也想通了！ 谢谢LS!

Persephoner

两个题目是一样的，我帮你讲个稍难点的吧，然后57题你自己做

Roland说：国内90%的人都说自己认识某个失业的人！值得警惕了！

Sharon:  这很正常啊，比如就拿一个正常的事业率5%来说，就意味着20个人里有一个是失业的。所以，如果一个人他认识大约50个工作的人，那非常可能其中就有1个或更多个失业的呀

在这里，其实Sharon的理论是根据概率论的基本原理来的，例如说如果全国人民中奖率是10%，那就等于说10个人有1个会中奖。但在这个结论里做了总体样本是平均分布的假设（通俗点来说是机会均等），也就是说，如果全国人民如果就浙江人民在中奖的话，你如果在上海，你认识的10个人里就不会有人会中奖。

B选项说：失业情况不会集中在地理孤立的某些地区人口上 （你可以想象如果上海人民全失业了...）

58.   (34705-!-item-!-188;#058&007581)  

Roland:  The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed. 

Sharon:  But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed.  So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.  

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that  

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded

(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population

(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population

(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents

(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics