july_0112

70．The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.（专卖店，百货公司）
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their products increased during this same period.（我不知道自己对这句话的理解有没有错误哈，大家讨论下） Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
论据一+观点一：Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their products increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing.
反驳：作者告诉我们这样两个事实，local clothing stores 8到10月这三个月间的平均利润下降了，而home-products stores同期的平均利润却上升了。作者根据这个事实推出了consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing这样的结论。
首先，Consumers对于clothing和home products相互替代的选择行为应该表现在销售量上，而平均利润的上升或者下降并不能够反映出销售量的变化。对于clothing的销售来说，profits on average for the three month（我是这么理解的：三个月间的平均利润，下降是相对于前三个月的平均利润，不知道对不对）的下降可能有多种原因，成本的上升、销售量的降低都有可能。另外，三个月总的平均利润的下降也有可能是因为前阶段的某些factors造成平均利润的极度下降，而后半阶段平均利润处于上升阶段，但总体上没有弥补前阶段的下降，从三个月的平均利润下降的事实没有办法推出平均利润的走势（trend）。对于home products平均利润的上升的理解同样存在以上问题。
此外，平均利润的降低不代表总利润的降低，这些local stores或许采用降价促销的方式来扩大total profits。而total profits的变化对于销售策略的决定或许更有价值。
进一步说（Furthermore），即使consumers的确减少了对于clothing的购买，也不能说明他们将这部分需求转移向home products。也就是说，clothing需求的降低和home products需求的增加之间并不能构成直接的因果关系（A mere negative correlation between XX and XX does not necessarily prove a causal relationship）。
无论从哪个角度来说，作者的推理都存在逻辑错误。
观点二：To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.
反驳：作者认为存在这样一个trend：consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing，然而从以上分析我们可以知道，这个trend本身是unreasonable的。
根据文章的信息，我们无法判断本地clothing和home products的具体销售情况和趋势，因此无法预估总利润的大小，故作出文章的conclusion是缺乏根据的。
此外，文章提到的local stores或许并不是department stores，完全有可能是retail or other kinds stores的数据，或者是混合数据，这个数据即使属实并且有效，都无法为department stores的决策给予决定性的参考（exclusive references）。

july_0112

69．The following appeared in a memorandum from a president of a company that makes shampoo.
“A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects. Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.”
观点一：A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects.
反驳：作者认为the study about HR2的样本容量不够大，因此拒绝接受研究的成果，然而事实上如果抽样方法、研究方法和具体的操作都是科学合理的，500的样本容量并不会太小，研究成果也能够在一定程度上说明问题。（reveal the truth to some degree）。
论据一：Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do.
反驳：作者说during the past year（在过去的一年里），公司并没有收到顾客的complaints，然而如果研究的结论属实，那么只有a prolonged use of the shampoo contained HR2才会引起hair loss，一年的use time究竟能否归入a prolonged use的范畴有待商榷。
并且，在过去的一年里没有收到complaints不能说明该公司收到的complains很少，更不能证明其产品质量非常好，有可能在更长的销售史中，该公司收到的complains远多于average。
此外，competitors的行为（behavior）不能够成为决定本公司行为的理由。We can’t break the rules of our society just because other people do so.或许别的公司添加more HR2的行为已经造成了serious consequences，damage the health of customs了。
观点二：Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.
反驳：作者根据上文陈述的理由得出这样的结论，由于上文的观点和论据都不够有说服力，可以说the basic assumption of this conclusion is irrational，这个结论自然缺乏可信度。

july_0112

68．（我感觉我写得不好……麻烦大家及时修改反馈啊~~~）
The following appeared in a memorandum from a company’s marketing department.
“Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe air filter six months ago, sales of our economy filter- and company profits- have decreased significantly.The deluxe air filter sells for 50 percent more than the economy filter, but the economy filter lasts for only one month while the deluxe filter can be used for two months before it must be replaced. （这句话不知道有什么错误，不知道怎么反驳）To increase repeat sales of our economy filter and maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe air filter and concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter.”
论据一：Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe air filter six months ago, sales of our economy filter- and company profits- have decreased significantly.
反驳：非因果关系，生产和销售deluxe air filter与economy filter销售量以及公司的profits的下降之间并不一定是必然的因果关系，可能在此之前公司的sales of economy filter and company profits已经处于下降的阶段，故不能将decrease归因于生产和销售deluxe air filter。此外，影响销售量和profits的因素有很多，除了营销策略（marketing strategy）之外，也可能是由于整个行业的发展状况、经济环境（economic condition）等其他因素的作用。作者也没有告诉我们下降的具体程度。
结论一：To increase repeat sales of our economy filter and maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe air filter and concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter.
反驳：这家公司的marketing department的目标是提高economy filter的重复销售（repeat sales）和最大化公司的利润，为达到这样的目标，采取两个措施，第一个是停止deluxe air filter的业务，第二个是focus their advertising on the economy filter。这里面隐藏着作者的一个逻辑错误，作者认为maximize profits与economy filter的销售有直接的关系，然而根据文章有限的信息，我们知道deluxe air filter虽然贵，但耐用，与economy filter各有优缺点（The deluxe air filter sells for 50 percent more than the economy filter, but the economy filter lasts for only one month while the deluxe filter can be used for two months before it must be replaced.），我们没有理由拒绝deluxe air filter或许能够更好地maximize profits这样一个观点，因为或者是由于这家公司对于deluxe air filter的marketing做得不好而导致的销售业绩的不理想，并不由于产品本身，而文章没有提供给我们关于这方面的更加详细的信息。因而，完全discontinue the deluxe air filter不一定是一个好的strategy，多样化的产品加上更加适合市场的营销策略，或许能够更好地实现maximize profits的目标。
另外，即使集中化（centralizaion？正确的英文表达是什么来着？原谅我不是商科滴~~）的销售策略的确是best choice，concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter这样一个advertising strategy也不见得是好的，对于一家公司来说，公司的reputation和image同样重要，也同样需要advertisement对其进行宣传，将所有advertising efforts集中于一个产品是不明智的（unwise/unreasonable）。

july_0112

67．The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an investment firm.
“Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity. Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed. Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario’s chief executive was once the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.”
论据一：Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity.
反驳：几种设备的成本降低了不足以证明整个转化solar energy into electricity设备的成本都降低了，并且最近的降低（recently）不能保证降低的趋势一致延续下去，延续多长时间。作者也没有提供关于成本降低程度的信息，如果设备的成本本来就处于一个特别高的水平之上，短时间内的低水平dropping in costs无法保证进入这个行业的成本是很低的。
论据二：Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed.
反驳：作者主观认定new technologies是令人兴奋的，这样的判断标准值得怀疑，作者只是依据主观判断（subjective）下了结论，没有客观的（objective）说服力。此外，正在被研发的新技术并不一定真正能够转化为生产力，并不一定对太阳能发电产业带来好的效应。
观点一：Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power.
反驳：作者根据以上两个不充分（inefficient）的观点得出了如上的结论，这个结论本身就没有说服力。此外，结论认为solar energy相比于coal和oil是一种更加经济、有吸引力的发电原料，在这个对比中，作者没有给出具体的关于coal和oil的具体信息，因此这样的结论不可信，这样的比较也缺乏事实根据。
观点二：We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario’s chief executive was once the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.
反驳：作者最后得出的结论是要投资新的solar-powered products（太阳能动力产品制造商），这明显犯了偷换概念的错误，假设solar energy作为发电材料真的是更加具有前景的，我们也无法肯定solar-powered products就是投资的好选择。更何况作者给出的补充理由极其没有说服力，一个曾经在软件工程公司的financial planning team中取得过成绩的人作为完全不同行业公司的CEO并不一定有很强的实力，况且一个team的成功无法作为衡量个人能力的决定性（exclusive）标准，因此Solario公司并不一定是有能力、有潜力、能够带来盈利的投资对象。

july_0112

66.The following appeared in an article in a travel magazine.
“After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month. And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today’s business traveler.“
理由一：After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month.
反驳：作者只提供了航空工业要求airlines公布on-time rates之后Speedee航空公司的准点率情况，这并不能代表在此之前这家公司的准点率一直排名第一而且达到89%之高，很可能在此之前公司的准点率在业内（within the industry）排名非常靠后，公司正是借着airline industry将on-time rates作为公开指标的机会提高自己的这项指标以便提高，甚至是挽救公司的声誉。
此外，Speedee公司或许只有very limited amount of flights，甚至只有不到10条航线（less than 10 flights），因此89%的准点率并不能说明公司的航班有多么强的时间管理能力（time-managed ability）。并且，on-time rates只能是衡量航空公司服务的众多标准之中的一个，这个信息无法帮助我们推断出Speedee公司的服务质量、安全系数、航线丰富程度等其他信息。
理由二：And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today’s business traveler.
反驳：为了进一步支持自己的结论，作者提到这样一个事实：公司比以前提供了更多的航线（或者说destinations）。然而作者没有告诉我们公司之前的航线数量，正如上面假设的，或许公司之前只有极其有限的航线，那么哪怕一个非常大程度的提高，也无法使得公司拥有称得上“abundant”的destinations来满足市场需要，更何况作者根本没有给出信息告诉我们增长的程度（the level of the increase）。
此外，哪怕Speedee的确是一家非常好的航空公司，增加航线后的确拥有数一数二丰富的航线（have more flights/destinations than any other airlines in the industry），Speedee也不一定是business traveler的最佳选择。因为很可能其航线覆盖的大多是旅游目的地，并且价格相对于商务舱价位来说都太高，从需求和成本上都不能满足business traveler的需要，更何况，作者根本没有提供任何更多的证据让我们判断Speedee究竟是一家怎样的航空公司。