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Template for Analysis of Argument

A.1 Unrelated events

The author unfairly assumes that B were attributable to A. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that A has nothing to do with B. For example, perhaps C happened and B might happen irrespective of A. Similarly, perhaps it was D why B happened. After all, the author provides no evidence that A was actually responsible for B. Without considering and ruling out other alternative explanations why B happened, the author cannot convince me that A should be done.

Example

First of all, the chairperson unfairly assumes that the three band awards were attributable to Schade's abilities and efforts. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that Schade was not the school's band instructor when the band won these awards. Or, perhaps the band won all three awards early in Schade's tenure, and his predecessor is to be credited. For that matter, perhaps it was the improved quality of the band's musical instruments that should be credited for the awards. After all, the chairperson provides no evidence that Schade was actually responsible for this improvement. Without considering and ruling out other possible reasons why the band won the awards the chairperson cannot convince me of Schade's abilities or, in mm, that he should be appointed to the district job. (AA24)

Secondly, the mayor fails to account for other possible causes of the trends in Ocean View during the last two years. The increase in tourism might have been due to improving economic conditions nationwide, or to unusually pleasant weather in the region. The new businesses that have opened in Ocean View might have opened there irrespective of the new golf course and hotel. And, the 30% increase in tax revenues might have been the result of an increase in tax rates, or the addition of a new type of municipal tax. Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the three recent trends in Ocean View, the mayor cannot reasonably infer based on those trends that Hopewell's economy would benefit by following Ocean View's example. (AA23)

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D.互斥性不成立

作者假定了A和B是互相排斥的,所以由A不成立推导出B成立.然而,这样的互斥性必须被证明.

思路:可能存在中间路线,或者除了A和B还有其他选项C,D(无互斥性)

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C.例证不足

作者想证明因果联系,但是论证不充分.

思路:

单独个例不能说明问题(论证不足)
调查数据不能说明问题: 样本的有效性没有证明;调查方法的有效性没有说明(调查无力)

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B.类比无效

常见的错误模式是,因为C推导出了D,所以类似地采用A去推导B. C和D之间的因果联系可能是问题,见上一点.同时,A和C之间,B和D之间是否可以类推也是问题.

思路:

类比的对象自身特性不完全一样(主体有别)
类比的对象面对的问题领域不同(问题有别)
过去的情况不能指明未来的趋势,情况可能会变化(时间有别)

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错误类型分析

A.虚假因果联系

作者认为A是B的充要条件,所以改善A可以解决B.但是最可能的情况是: A并不是B的充要条件.

思路:

A不导致B,其他因素C或D导致B (无关事件)
可能相反是B导致了A (反向因果)
A要在C的前提下才能推导出B,而C没有被提及 (不当假设)
即使A是B的条件,A也不能保证B发生,因为还有其他的因素;或者,即使A很好,也不能保证A是最好 (非充分条件)

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Template for Analysis of Argument

In this editorial/memo/letter, the author/someone has argued/concluded/recommended that …. To justify/support (OR: In support of) this conclusion/recommendation/argument, the author/someone reasons/notes that…. As further support (for the argument), the author/someone also points out that …/cites that … Finally, the author/someone cites/notes that … However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals that it provides little credible support for the author’s/someone’s recommendation/conclusion (in several critical respects). (OR: In several respects, this evidence provides little credible support for the author’s/someone’s recommendation/conclusion.)

First of all, ...

Secondly, …

Similarly (OR: Thirdly), …

Fourth, …

Finally, …

In conclusion, the author’s/someone’s recommendation/argument/conclusion that … (OR argument for the proposed something) is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it, the memo’s/letter’s/editorial’s author/someone must provide clear/better/more concrete evidence (, perhaps by way of a reliable survey/a detailed analysis of …,) that … The author/someone should/must also show/demonstrate that … and that … (Additionally, to justify/demonstrate the claim that … the author must provide supporting evidence.) Finally, to better assess/evaluate the recommendation/argument/survey, we would need to know more information about why/what/how … (OR: to compare …) (and why/what/how …)