myice

124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
Carlo's服饰老板给员工的备忘录：
由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo's服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.
1，        人流量是否代表利润？
2，        CARLO的停滞是否有其他原因
3，        错误类比。——服装与音像。

1，        The foot trafic into the store and the increase of owners' personal wealth can not indicate the business growth of the Disc Depot.
2，        The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
3，        The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
4，        Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. Likewise, it is possible that there are some other reasons can explain the stagnant profit of carlo's clothing.

myice

123. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a River City newspaper.
“The Clio Development Group’s plan for a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street should be approved in order to strengthen the economy of the surrounding area. Although most of the buildings on the block would have to be demolished, they are among the oldest in the city and thus of little current economic value. Those who oppose the project should realize that historic preservation cannot be the only consideration: even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up new ones that improve the local economy.”
给River城的报纸编辑的一封信：
Clio发展商在Dock街修建多层停车场的计划应该被批准以便加强附近地区的经济。虽然这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁，但他们是这个城市最老的建筑因此现在没有多少经济价值了。那些反对这个项目的人应该认识到保护历史不能是唯一的考虑，甚至雅典和耶路撒冷也会拆除旧建筑来盖新建筑以促进本地经济。
1.        No evidence is given to support the direct causal relationship between the buliding of mutilevel parking garage on Dock Streets with the development of the economy of the surrounding area.
2.        Admittedly, the historic preservation can not be the only consideration when decide whether to demolish the historic buildings or not. It is also reckless to ignore the historic preservation. A decision should be made after balancing all the factors.
3.        The fact cited by the writter of the letter that even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up news one can not serve as a evidence to approve the demolishment of the old buildings on the Dock street.

myice

120. The following appeared in a corporate planning memorandum for a company that develops amusement parks.
“Because travel from our country to foreign countries has increased dramatically in recent years, our next project should be a World Tour theme park with replicas of famous foreign buildings, rides that have international themes, and refreshment stands serving only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. The best location would be near our capital city, which has large percentages of international residents and of children under the age of 16. Given the advantages of this site and the growing interest in foreign countries, the World Tour theme park should be as successful as our Space Travel theme park, where attendance has increased tenfold over the past decade.”
修建休闲公园的公司的董事会计划备忘录：
因为我国到其他国家的交通在近几年显著增加，我们的下一个目标应该是世界之旅主题公园，公园有各国著名建筑的复制品，有国际主题的旅行（ride？），点心摊位只提供离得最近的那个旅行方式所代表的国家的食物。最好的地点是靠近首都附近，那里有大量的国际居民和16岁以下的小孩。有了这个便利的地点和对国外兴趣的增长，世界交通主题公园将会和我们的参观者增长10倍的太空旅行主题公园一样成功。
1.        Increasing travel from the country the mentioned comany belongs to to foreign countries does not necessarily mean there is also a increasing interest in the amusment parks with a world tour theme.
2.        Therefore, the proposal that the amusement park should be bulit in the capital city is also groundless.
3.        Even if there is an increasing interest in the parks with a theme of world tour, it is not necessary to go to the extreme such us making the refreshment stands serve only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride.
4.        What is more, the company's plan is based on a false analogy that the World tour theme park should be as successful as the Space travel theme park.

1.        Increase in travelling abroad doesn't guarantee an increase in the interest to go the World Tour theme park.
2.        Gratuitous assumption: No reliable evidence can support the idea that the capital city is the best location for an amusement park.
3.        False analogy.

myice

缺119,120,123,124,125,A3,A1
119. The following is from an editorial that appeared in a River City newspaper.
“The Clio Development Group wants to build a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street in River City, but the plan should not be approved. Most of the buildings on the block would then have to be demolished. Because these buildings were erected decades ago, they have historic significance and must therefore be preserved as economic assets in the effort to revitalize a restored riverfront area. Recall how Lakesburg has benefited from business increases in its historic downtown center. Moreover, there is plenty of vacant land for a parking lot elsewhere in River City.”
给River城的报纸的编辑的一封信：
Clio发展商不应该被允许在Dock街修建多层停车场，因为这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁。因为这些建筑是几十年前修建的，他们具有历史意义，因此应该在复兴沿河区域的努力中被保留做经济资产。回忆一下沿湖地区通过他们的有历史的中心街区的商业增长得到了多少好处。而且，River城的其他地方有足够多空地可以修停车场。
文章反对摧毁古建筑来修建停车场。
所以你应该说那些建筑没有什么历史意义，不一定会带来商业增长。RIVER城其它地方并没有空地，就只有DOCK街需要停车场其它地方远水解不了近渴，我们还可以通过其它方法避免摧毁建筑而又可以在DOCK街修建多层停车场

myice

114. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
“The package of benefits and incentives that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings to fund our current research and development initiatives.”
一家软件工程公司，Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录：
RW给专业人员的利益和激励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前我们组成公司时机制引入，我们的利润下降了1/4，而且，这个机制基本上没有效果，因为我们在招募和训练高水平专业人员方面只获得边际（marginal？）成功。为了再次得到更多的利润，RW应该提供两年前使用的较低的激励机制，并把节余用于研发的开展。
1，        The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2，        Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3，        Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.

1.        同时发生并不代表因果，忽略他因
2.        没有提供信息，不知道如果不提供这些会不会得到成功培训
3.        即使是省下钱，也不知是否科研，因为可能因为其他原因导致的利润下降。

In this memorandum the director of research and development of Ready-to-Ware recommends reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding current research and development initiatives. The director’s line of reasoning is that quarterly profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing it. Moreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and training high-quality employees. The director’s argument is questionable for several reasons.
To begin with, the director’s reasoning is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the benefits package is responsible for the decline in quarterly profits is that the profits declined after the package was introduced. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. Many other factors could bring about the same result. For example, the company may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to satisfy its customers by providing adequate support services. Until these and other possible factors are ruled out, it is premature to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package was the cause of the decline in profits.
Next, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the marginal success Ready-to-Ware has experienced in recruiting and training new high-quality professionals. However, no evidence is offered to support this allegation. Other reasons for Ready-to-Ware’s failure to attract high-quality professionals are not considered. For example, perhaps Ready-to-Ware is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field. Until these and other possible explanations of the company’s marginal success at recruiting and training employees are examined and eliminated it is folly to conclude that the benefits package provided to the professional staff is responsible.
In conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits package Ready-to-Ware currently offers its professional staff. To further support the recommendation the director would have to examine and eliminate other possible reasons for the decline in Ready-to-Ware’s quarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-quality professionals.

windows10

many  thanks !

myice

112. The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager.
“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”
Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50％的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
1.        There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2.        Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3.        Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.

In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.

myice

110. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.
“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”
Frostbite国家银行的借贷部门的备忘录：
我们不应该批准那个希望开一家KK冰激凌连锁店的特许店的本地团体的借贷请求。Frostbite以其寒冷的冬天而闻名，而冷天气意味着冰激凌的销售不利。比如，虽然Frostbite是个有10000人的镇子，它却只有一家冰激凌店Frigid Cow。尽管缺乏竞争，Frigid Cow的净收入去年冬天下降了10％。
1.        Other factors in deciding whether to give loan to a company such as the credit of the company should be considered.
2.        Admittedly, the former and prospective performance of the company is also important when the bank have to make decision of whether or not should it give loan to a company. However, the author of the memorandum show no sufficient evidence to support his or her proposal that the bank should not give loan to Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors.
3.        The statistics last year does not necessarily denote the future trend.

1，        排除他因，净收入下降的原因是什么？可能是经营不好，草率定价，甚至正因为缺乏竞争导致了这些。
2，        寒冷冬天不等于没有夏天，也不等于夏天短暂。不能说明原因。

In this memorandum the loan department of Frostbite National Bank recommends against approval of a business loan to a local group that wants to open an ice cream parlor. In support of this decision the loan department points out that Frostbite has a reputation for cold winters and sales of ice cream decrease in cold weather. This latter point is buttressed by the fact that Frostbite’s only ice cream parlor suffered a 10 percent decline in net revenues the previous winter. The loan department’s decision is questionable for the following reasons.
To begin with, since it is reasonable to expect a decline in ice cream sales during winter months, it is difficult to assess the relevance of the fact that Frostbite has cold winters to the potential success of the Kool Kone franchise. Common sense suggests that this fact would be significant only if it turned out that Frostbite’s winter season lasted 9 or 10 months as it does in arctic regions. In that case slow sales could be expected for most of the year and the loan department’s opposition to the loan would be readily understandable. If, on the other hand, Frostbite’s winter season lasts only a few months and the remainder of the year is warm or hot, it is difficult to comprehend the loan department’s reasoning.
Next, the loan department assumes that the Frigid Cow’s decline in net revenue last winter was a result of slow sales occasioned by cold weather. While this is a possible reason for the decline, it is not the only factor that could account for it. For example, other factors such as poor business practices or lack of inventory could be responsible for the Frigid Cow’s loss of revenue. The loan department’s failure to investigate or even consider these and other possible explanations for the Frigid Cow’s decline in revenue renders their decision highly suspect.
In conclusion, the loan department’s decision is ill-founded. To better evaluate the decision, we would need to know more about the length and severity of Frostbite’s winter season. Moreover, evidence would have to be provided to support the assumption that the Frigid Cow’s loss of revenue last winter was a direct result of the cold weather.

myice

108. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12％。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量和决定于会员费的收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
1.        忽略他因。
2.        错误类比。
3.        收入和支出

1.        causal oversimplification
2.        a benefit-cost analysis should be given
3.        Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown.

Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author’s argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the author’s belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart’s membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.

painsper

many  thanks !