myice

15 B4 l The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us.
However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
提纲：
Firstly, the solution to the problem, mentioned in the article, rests on an oversimplified analysis of the issue. The author commits “after this, therefore, because of this” reasoning. The line of the reasoning is that because recruitment of new employees occurred before the success or failure of the firm, the former event is responsible for the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless all other prospective causes of the changes in the firm have been considered and ruled out.
For example, perhaps the main products of the firm took up most of the markets several years ago but lost the competitive edge in the past two years; or perhaps recently the costs of materials were much higher then before, squeezing the profits a lot. Therefore any reason aimed at addressing the problems of firm must be based on more thorough investigation to gather sufficient data , in order to narrow down and locate the actual cause of the problem.
Secondly, the author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that the firm should not hire new employees. The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. Given that the firm always needs large number of employees to enlarge the sale market, so without the employees who equip the qualities of high level of skills and motivation, the firm would commit larger lost; or that the firm recently recovered the market, leading to the increased need of the staff to make up the lost in the profits previously. Thus it is impossible to conclude without the evidence that whether the current conditions are the same as the conditions used to be two years ago.

myice

16  108 The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increasein the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12％。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量和决定于会员费的收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
提纲：
1.        忽略他因。
2.        错误类比。
3.        收入和支出
1.        causal oversimplification
2.        a benefit-cost analysis should be given
3.        Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown.

myice

17  未找到
一个汽车公司在JULY 与FEB 两个月做广告卖汽车一个是有关豪华汽车的一个月是不贵的汽车的然后得出结论后面逻辑错误百出很好写。
(考古) V1: AUTOMOBILE——6月的销售策略是陈列LUXURY MODEL,打LUXURY MODEL的广告，然后COMBINED SALES剧烈上涨。2月陈列MORE INEXPENSIVE MODEL，打INEXPENSIVE MODEL的广告，OVERALL SALES下降。
经历的结论：应该继续6月的策略，因为只要顾客踏入AUTO LOT然后看到L MODEL就会被吸引然后购买。
V2 :6月份的时候公司进行了advertising on parking lots and show room of luxury automotibles. And the sales increased significantly for both luxury and inexpensive models. 这证明这种投放广告的方式是有效的, 可以同时带来高级汽车(luxury)和普通汽车(inexpensive) 的销售增加. However, in Feburary, 同样针对inexpensive models的广告活动,没有带来sales的增长. 因此,公司应该在以后的广告活动中put the luxury models in front并center at luxury modles. 这样,现行可以maximize profits.
V3一个公司说六月份他们把luxury automobile model在当地报纸上做广告，并且放在商店的显著位置，因此销售额创了历史新高，二月他们把inexpensive model做广告，放在显著位置，但是销售额下来了，因此决定全年都应该把luxury automobile model在当地报纸上做广告，并且放在商店的显著位置，这样可以maxmize profits & attract customers：

myice

18  43
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”
报纸的健康板块上的文章：
有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，直到研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。
提纲：
1，        从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率
2，        治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的
3，        工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步

1.        首先，医生的人数与质量之间没有必然的因果原因。profit跟质量也无关系。很可能treating price is significantly lower。
2.        成功率不能说明问题。缺乏其他的证据，忽略了他因：比如因为质量高，所以很多serious illness的，而送往其他医院的一般都是common cases.
3.        时间不能代表问题。因为那些医生所做的研究很可能帮助他们进行治疗。