myice

 

110

The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.

“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”

Frostbite国家银行的借贷部门的备忘录：
我们不应该批准那个希望开一家KK冰激凌连锁店的特许店的本地团体的借贷请求。Frostbite以其寒冷的冬天而闻名，而冷天气意味着冰激凌的销售不利。比如，虽然Frostbite是个有10000人的镇子，它却只有一家冰激凌店Frigid Cow。尽管缺乏竞争，Frigid Cow的净收入去年冬天下降了10％。

1.      Other factors in deciding whether to give loan to a company such as the credit of the company should be considered.

2.      Admittedly, the former and prospective performance of the company is also important when the bank have to make decision of whether or not should it give loan to a company. However, the author of the memorandum show no sufficient evidence to support his or her proposal that the bank should not give loan to Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors.

3.      The statistics last year does not necessarily denote the future trend.

 

1，         排除他因，净收入下降的原因是什么？可能是经营不好，草率定价，甚至正因为缺乏竞争导致了这些。

2，         寒冷冬天不等于没有夏天，也不等于夏天短暂。不能说明原因。

myice

 

6

The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.

“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”

一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：

企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。

1作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。

2作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。

 

1因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。

2 H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。

3错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。

myice

 

14

The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.

“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”

两年前Nova高中开始在3个科学科目中使用互动计算机指导。学校的退学率立刻下降，而且去年的毕业生在大学取得了一些很不错的成绩。在未来的预算中，校董事会应该在能得到的资金中拨出更大的一块用来购买更多的计算机。而且这一区的所有学校都应该在课程中采用互动计算机指导。

interactive interact instruction logical logically covincing ignore decline atttibute

dropout中途退学（学生）usage sufficient fund budget compromise comprise impressive portion proportional ultimately ultimate strengthen graduate graduation applicable apply applicant application affordable afford district

1，      没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.

还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs

2，      错误类比，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。

3，      过去推将来，不对。很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。

myice

 

110（黄金112）

The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager.

“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”

Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50％的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。

1.       There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.

2.       Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.

3.       Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.

myice

 

39

The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.

“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”

Avia航空的部门备忘录：

平均地，去年乘坐Avia的1000个乘客中有9个针对我们的行李处理流程写了投诉信。这说明虽然有大约1%的乘客对这一流程表示不满，乘客的主体对它还是满意的。所以对流程的重新审查对我们要保持和提高Avia的乘客数这一目标不是很重要的。

1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？

2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉

3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivailize

 

1， 没有complaint不代表没有不满。

没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。

 

stubor

可以下，谢谢楼主。

myice

 

100（黄金106）

The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.

“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”

*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.

报纸的图书版的文章：

现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名著。这和文学名著接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。

1.    More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.

2.    the survey is doubtful

3.    It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net

（网友mattfrombay提供的原始版本：

说有一个online survey,  75% 的人认为古典文学作品很重要。82% 倾向读online book. (划线部分可能有误)。所以建议公司作电子古典文学（E-classics）这个business.

个人觉得：

此题可能是题库中100或黄金106的变体。大家可以参考看下）

 

myice

 

134（new1）

The following appeared in a memorandum from the head of a human resources department at a major automobile manufacturing company to the company's managers:

“Studies have found that employees of not-for-profit organizations and charities are often more highly motivated than employees of for-profit corporations to perform well at work when their performance is not being monitored or evaluated. Interviews with employees of not-for-profit organizations suggest that the reason for their greater motivation is the belief that their work helps to improve society. Because they believe in the importance of their work, they have personal reasons to perform well, even when no financial reward is present. Thus, if our corporation began donating a significant portion of its profits to humanitarian causes, our employees’ motivation and productivity would increase substantially and our overall profits would increase as well.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.

 

myice

 

43

The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”

报纸的健康板块上的文章：
有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，直到研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。

1，       从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率

2，       治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的

3，       工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步

 

1.        首先，医生的人数与质量之间没有必然的因果原因。profit跟质量也无关系。很可能treating price is significantly lower。

2.        成功率不能说明问题。缺乏其他的证据，忽略了他因：比如因为质量高，所以很多serious illness的，而送往其他医院的一般都是common cases.

3.        时间不能代表问题。因为那些医生所做的研究很可能帮助他们进行治疗。

 

 

myice

 

未找到原题：

1.某个Cereal Manufacture公司的研究表明，该公司的Breakfast Cereal里含有75%的vitamine K，比市场上同类产品的多。另外通过公司对regular consumers的survey发现大部分消费者更加偏好这种Breakfast Cereal的口味。But the sales of the cereal is decreasing. The ad department of the company conclude that, many people are not aware of the two features(vitamine k & taste). In order to spread the advantages of the cereal, the company should redesign the front box of the cereal 

驳斥：（JJ提供者Edism880120分析）

1）调查只说明顾客喜欢他们早餐的味道并没有说明顾客不知道它营养好。

2）归因错误，sale低并不一定是因为顾客不知道它有营养。

3）错误假设，现在的box设计不一定使顾客不知道它有营养，也许顾客知道，但是因为别的一些原因他们还是不买。

4）one-sidedness, 改进box设计后不一定销量会上升，因为改变box设计后，很可能会带来一些问题，

   如，无法突出口味优 势，使老顾客反感等等。

2．Greentree Gourmet 那道，我在题库没有找到，但是我依稀记得见过的，就是这个餐厅经营的目标客户是富人，然后它和一个咖啡厅的客户是类似的，所以打算和这个咖啡厅合作，在餐厅的辟一个角落卖咖啡。