myice

112. The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager.
“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”
Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50％的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
1.        There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2.        Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3.        Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.

In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.

windows10

many  thanks !

myice

114. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
“The package of benefits and incentives that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings to fund our current research and development initiatives.”
一家软件工程公司，Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录：
RW给专业人员的利益和激励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前我们组成公司时机制引入，我们的利润下降了1/4，而且，这个机制基本上没有效果，因为我们在招募和训练高水平专业人员方面只获得边际（marginal？）成功。为了再次得到更多的利润，RW应该提供两年前使用的较低的激励机制，并把节余用于研发的开展。
1，        The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2，        Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3，        Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.

1.        同时发生并不代表因果，忽略他因
2.        没有提供信息，不知道如果不提供这些会不会得到成功培训
3.        即使是省下钱，也不知是否科研，因为可能因为其他原因导致的利润下降。

In this memorandum the director of research and development of Ready-to-Ware recommends reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding current research and development initiatives. The director’s line of reasoning is that quarterly profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing it. Moreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and training high-quality employees. The director’s argument is questionable for several reasons.
To begin with, the director’s reasoning is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the benefits package is responsible for the decline in quarterly profits is that the profits declined after the package was introduced. However, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. Many other factors could bring about the same result. For example, the company may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to satisfy its customers by providing adequate support services. Until these and other possible factors are ruled out, it is premature to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package was the cause of the decline in profits.
Next, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the marginal success Ready-to-Ware has experienced in recruiting and training new high-quality professionals. However, no evidence is offered to support this allegation. Other reasons for Ready-to-Ware’s failure to attract high-quality professionals are not considered. For example, perhaps Ready-to-Ware is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field. Until these and other possible explanations of the company’s marginal success at recruiting and training employees are examined and eliminated it is folly to conclude that the benefits package provided to the professional staff is responsible.
In conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits package Ready-to-Ware currently offers its professional staff. To further support the recommendation the director would have to examine and eliminate other possible reasons for the decline in Ready-to-Ware’s quarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-quality professionals.

myice

缺119,120,123,124,125,A3,A1
119. The following is from an editorial that appeared in a River City newspaper.
“The Clio Development Group wants to build a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street in River City, but the plan should not be approved. Most of the buildings on the block would then have to be demolished. Because these buildings were erected decades ago, they have historic significance and must therefore be preserved as economic assets in the effort to revitalize a restored riverfront area. Recall how Lakesburg has benefited from business increases in its historic downtown center. Moreover, there is plenty of vacant land for a parking lot elsewhere in River City.”
给River城的报纸的编辑的一封信：
Clio发展商不应该被允许在Dock街修建多层停车场，因为这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁。因为这些建筑是几十年前修建的，他们具有历史意义，因此应该在复兴沿河区域的努力中被保留做经济资产。回忆一下沿湖地区通过他们的有历史的中心街区的商业增长得到了多少好处。而且，River城的其他地方有足够多空地可以修停车场。
文章反对摧毁古建筑来修建停车场。
所以你应该说那些建筑没有什么历史意义，不一定会带来商业增长。RIVER城其它地方并没有空地，就只有DOCK街需要停车场其它地方远水解不了近渴，我们还可以通过其它方法避免摧毁建筑而又可以在DOCK街修建多层停车场

myice

120. The following appeared in a corporate planning memorandum for a company that develops amusement parks.
“Because travel from our country to foreign countries has increased dramatically in recent years, our next project should be a World Tour theme park with replicas of famous foreign buildings, rides that have international themes, and refreshment stands serving only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. The best location would be near our capital city, which has large percentages of international residents and of children under the age of 16. Given the advantages of this site and the growing interest in foreign countries, the World Tour theme park should be as successful as our Space Travel theme park, where attendance has increased tenfold over the past decade.”
修建休闲公园的公司的董事会计划备忘录：
因为我国到其他国家的交通在近几年显著增加，我们的下一个目标应该是世界之旅主题公园，公园有各国著名建筑的复制品，有国际主题的旅行（ride？），点心摊位只提供离得最近的那个旅行方式所代表的国家的食物。最好的地点是靠近首都附近，那里有大量的国际居民和16岁以下的小孩。有了这个便利的地点和对国外兴趣的增长，世界交通主题公园将会和我们的参观者增长10倍的太空旅行主题公园一样成功。
1.        Increasing travel from the country the mentioned comany belongs to to foreign countries does not necessarily mean there is also a increasing interest in the amusment parks with a world tour theme.
2.        Therefore, the proposal that the amusement park should be bulit in the capital city is also groundless.
3.        Even if there is an increasing interest in the parks with a theme of world tour, it is not necessary to go to the extreme such us making the refreshment stands serve only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride.
4.        What is more, the company's plan is based on a false analogy that the World tour theme park should be as successful as the Space travel theme park.

1.        Increase in travelling abroad doesn't guarantee an increase in the interest to go the World Tour theme park.
2.        Gratuitous assumption: No reliable evidence can support the idea that the capital city is the best location for an amusement park.
3.        False analogy.

myice

123. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a River City newspaper.
“The Clio Development Group’s plan for a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street should be approved in order to strengthen the economy of the surrounding area. Although most of the buildings on the block would have to be demolished, they are among the oldest in the city and thus of little current economic value. Those who oppose the project should realize that historic preservation cannot be the only consideration: even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up new ones that improve the local economy.”
给River城的报纸编辑的一封信：
Clio发展商在Dock街修建多层停车场的计划应该被批准以便加强附近地区的经济。虽然这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁，但他们是这个城市最老的建筑因此现在没有多少经济价值了。那些反对这个项目的人应该认识到保护历史不能是唯一的考虑，甚至雅典和耶路撒冷也会拆除旧建筑来盖新建筑以促进本地经济。
1.        No evidence is given to support the direct causal relationship between the buliding of mutilevel parking garage on Dock Streets with the development of the economy of the surrounding area.
2.        Admittedly, the historic preservation can not be the only consideration when decide whether to demolish the historic buildings or not. It is also reckless to ignore the historic preservation. A decision should be made after balancing all the factors.
3.        The fact cited by the writter of the letter that even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up news one can not serve as a evidence to approve the demolishment of the old buildings on the Dock street.

myice

124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
Carlo's服饰老板给员工的备忘录：
由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo's服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.
1，        人流量是否代表利润？
2，        CARLO的停滞是否有其他原因
3，        错误类比。——服装与音像。

1，        The foot trafic into the store and the increase of owners' personal wealth can not indicate the business growth of the Disc Depot.
2，        The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.
3，        The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.
4，        Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. Likewise, it is possible that there are some other reasons can explain the stagnant profit of carlo's clothing.

huangluyaomm

many  thanks !!1

mba2013

谢谢！

bradfordchens

谢谢~