houri

（11）本月机经1次 上月机经7次

The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.”
提供观点：
1、忽略他因：存在员工之外的因素影响利润
2、错误的归罪于HR
3、错误的认为事物恒定：八年前的历史数据不能用来评价目前的状况

houri

（12）本月机经1次 上月机经5次

找的是原题The followingappeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm:
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the ThespianTheater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had businessincreases over the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in theRoxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’- Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three newbusinesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them toparticipate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of thebusinesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivatingcustomers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitabilityof each and maximize our return.”实战中不过是把那个饭店的名字换成了什么Pita，卖三明治的。（2010版题库129）
考古
AA：在P district有三家店（theater, pizza, golf club）在过去的两年business都increase了，所以I district也想开这三家店，并且I district决定：如果有去其中两家店的顾客，那么去第三家店可以打折，这样 I district 觉得肯定可以contribute to profit and maximize revenue.

V2:一家capital investment company的recommendation：在Park Hill District 开的三家店XX theater，XX playhouse（貌似，反正不重要）和XX Golf Club，两年前盈利increase了，所以作者建议在另一个district也投资新开三家经营范围类似（但品牌不同）的店；另外，采用a program：上前两家消费的顾客在第三家永久享受折扣——那么这三家店每一家都能盈利并且投资公司能赚到钱。
提供观点：
2、        过去的营业额增长不代表在另一个district开三家店生意能够好，区域之间可能存在差异，错误的类比
3、        推理不充分，这种折扣政策能保证三家店的每一家都盈利么？会不会某一家店承担了过多的折扣？

houri

（13）本月机经1次 上月机经7次
Fun Toy Company采取了一个职工培训计划program，让senior employees volunteer to take an new employees as their apprentice, 这样的话，new employees 就可以follow the pattern sets by the senior employees. 用这种方法， 可以减少培训成本，也不会time-consuming。因此，我们公司也应该仿效该公司，采取同样的方法来培训员工。
偶写的错误是：false analogy& gratuitous assumption
考古
V1.Afun toys company successfully use the module which that senior employees take on an aprrence,让新员工观察老员工然后从中学习. 这样的话可以减少很多cost for training program。有人建议他们的公司应该学习这个fun toys company.
V2.摘自a human resouce director in a tire manufacturing company.
”The cost of training the new employee plays an  important role  in the overall expense of a company. 象the Fun Toys Company 发起一个Apprentice Training Progam. 他们给senior empoloyee发 salary bounus 如果他们自愿参加这个项目。在这个项目中new employee can learn business patterns from the senior employee这样来降低新员工的培训成本。 so no more expensive and cost programs are needed. 所以我们公司也应该象FUN Toys Company 一样用这中项目降低新员工培训的成本。”
粉红栀TX提供的思路：
1 False Analogy. 错误类比了我们公司（tire manufacturing company 和 Fun Toys Company）
2 One-sidedness. 没有考虑cost-effect analysis.  在这个项目实施过程中，给老员工发的salary bonus 可能大于省下的training cost. 并且在学习过程中，新员工可能会学到老员工的一些坏习惯，比如错误操作等
3 “no more expensive ...... are needed.” 过于绝对。在Apprentice Training Program中新员工只能学到专业技能，操作，但是对团队协作力，团队建设等没有很好的培训到。

V3 A fun toys company sussefully use the module which that senior employees take on an aprrence,让新员工观察老员工然后从中学习. 这样的话可以减少很多expense time for training program。有人建议他们的公司应该学习这个fun toys company.
V4一个公司要省新员工培训费，决定让老员工参加一个program，记录他们的habits and activities,让新员工follow，以省去高昂的cost
V5AA是培训员工很费钱，一个玩具商店取消了员工培训，让员工自己向老员工学习，但是有技能的员工有奖励，所以作者的公司也想这么干。
观点：
1.老员工的不一定适合新员工啊，时代在变化嘛
2.可能老员工参加的program也会花费很多

houri

（14）本月机经1次 上月机经4次
一个城市主要依靠旅游收入，最近5年环境恶化，收入减少， 但是在原来的旅游景点（national parks）下面发现了煤矿储备， 于是就认为应该开采，不仅能够增加收入还能够提供就业。只有通过这样才能够实现经济增长。
考古
v1一political leader说national parks前五年revenue下跌，那地方有mineral deposit, 要是改成mining company可以提供jobs和tax revenue，所以要把national parks改成mining company。
V2.将一个一tourism为经济主要来源的国家因为环境污染而使经济受到影响，然后在national park 发现mine deposit， 就说mining 可以给政府更多的taxes，并促进就业。 conclusion： permitting mining 对这个国家经济复苏有利。
V3.由于近五年的工业污染导致国家公园对游客的吸引力下降，从而国家公园收入降低。但是最近在国家公园地底下发现矿物质，如果对其进行开采则不仅可以解决了政府税收问题，解决国家公园收入问题，还可以提供大量的就业。因此认为开采矿物质是最好的复兴经济的办法。

四月机经7次
V1就是说一个神马national parks 因为 indutrial pollution导致越来越不attractive to tourists。然后人们发现这个公园里有deposits of minerals,然后就提出如果同意mining companies来mine 这些deposits，那么这些公司就会交一大笔tax然后provide 很多jobs。然后这样就可以增加公园的收入神马的。
[V2]一个城市旅游业因为污染不行了，有人就要挖矿，说什么可以带动经济，还create job for those used to work in the tourism industry.
[V3] 一国的经济顾问在给总统的一封信里建议由于本国环境污染严重以致支柱产业旅游业的很多国家公园环境恶化，然后新近在一些国家公园发现矿藏，认为大力开发矿产可以带来大量税收收入并为旅游业萧条后事业的人提供工作机会。并宣称旅游业环境会一直恶化，让该国经济抬头的最好选择就是开矿
[V4] 就是说一个神马national parks 因为 industrial pollution导致越来越不attractive to tourists。然后人们发现这个公园里有deposits of minerals,然后就提出如果同意mining companies来mine 这些deposits，那么这些公司就会交一大笔tax然后provide 很多jobs。然后这样就可以增加公园的收入神马的。
考古
[v1]某國的national park因為周圍的工廠導致污染嚴重，旅游業下降，經濟學家發現在national park下面有很多礦，可以把national park打造成mining industry，從而政府可以從mining company的稅收來盈利，mining company也可以提供給以前在naitonal park工作的人mining的工作。所以這個提議是好的。
[v2] AA．（我看的JJ里还没有，是OG上的吗？我没有看OG 的作文题目）
是一个ECONOMIC ADVISOR写给POLITICAL LEADER的信。内容是：一个W什么的NATION 以往主要依靠旅游业，现在由于它的一些NATIONAL PARKS的吸引力下降，旅游业的REVENUE有下降的趋势。但是幸运的是最近在它的有些NATIONAL PARKS里探明有矿藏。ADVISOR建议允许在这些NATIONAL PARKS里开采矿藏。好处是纳的税能增加政府的REVENUE，同时还能给那些失去工作的旅游业从业人员提供就业机会。另外，就算不允许在公园里开矿，旅游业收入也还是要下滑的。
[v3] 是说一个city的park的tourism数量减少了 是因为industry pollution
于是city government决定在公园里建什么mining
这样可以提高city的revenue并且增加employment的数量
提供观点：
1、采矿会加剧污染。缺少analysis of cost and benefit其导致的旅游业减少所带来的损失可能超过采矿业带来的收益。
2、治理污染可能花费更多
3、以前在naitonal park工作的人不能胜任mining的工作
以下是DarthWalker同学提供的思路
1、失业的旅游业工人不一定具备成为矿工的技能
2、采矿会进一步恶化环境降低旅游收入，两者的比例未知，并且长期的环境破坏损失不可估量
3、除去开矿外还可能有别的促进经济的政策
4、旅游业不一定会继续恶化，也许已经跌到了谷底
5、通过治理环境很可能重新振兴旅游业

houri

（15）本月机经1次 上月机经9次
The country of Bonaria held a major soccer event five years ago. Therefore, if the country continues to hold major sport events, tourism will increase rapidly in the country and thus bring benefits to the country's economy.
某个国家5年前办了场运动会，然后发现近三年旅游人数增多鸟，经济都增长了。所以有人提出为了促进经济增长，要再办个国际赛事。
考古：
[v1]一个B城市:5年前hold an succor competition. 发现相比在这个competition 3年前，在这个competition举办后的3年的number of tourists increased 25%。所有呢，这个B城市打算再举办一次类似的sport event 来吸引游客。这个城市B相信，这个sport event会增加游客人数，同时benefit the country economy.
[v2] AA:5年前办了一个足球比赛，后来旅游发展很好，所以我们应该引进更多的国际体育赛事到B市，就可以吸引游客，带动经济发展
[v3] B国家五年前hosted a international soccer competition 游客增加 所以市长未来想要再办类似的比赛以增加观光收入和国家收益
提供观点：
1、错误的由时间先后推出因果关系
2、过去的成功不能保证将来，存在他因

houri

（16）本月机经1次 上月机经4次
某个航空公司去年利润下降，他们就认为原因肯定是因为油价上涨和新开了航线中的至少一个，而去年所有的公司都经历了油价上涨，但仍然有公司盈利，所以油价肯定不是利润减少的原因。因此，公司把新开的航线关闭了就可以提高利润。
考古
说航空公司利润去年降了了20%，列了3个理由，油价涨了，新开航线还是公司来，还有一个想不起来了....然后说其它公司都面临油价上涨，但有公司利润增加，所以不是油价的原因，结论想提高利润关新开的operation.
V2. Provincia Airline最近利润狂降,调查可能有两个原因:一是油价涨,二是他们开通新航线。.但是另一项调查表明其他航空公司也经历了油价上涨,但是利润也上涨,因此表明油价涨并不是我们公司利润狂降的唯一原因.为了提高利润,我们应该停止开通新航线。（好像狗说的是买新飞机？难道LZ读错了== ）
V3. Provincia Airline的利润降低了。可能有两个原因。1.rising oil prices 导致 fuel cost 上涨。2.它最近增加了5个城市的航班。而其他的航空公司也经历了rising oil prices但却没有增加那5个城市的航班，所以呢，原因2才是真正的原因。（我觉得些这个相对别的argument有点小难度...）
       
zelda爱star提供的观点
1.FA。每家公司都是不一样的，那个什么other airplane可能飞机比较小，耗油比较少
2.不仅仅只有这两个原因，可能本身P的管理成本有上升。
3.别的airline可能由于别的原因导致油价的上涨并不影响其profit 比如提供discount tickets.
4即使P停止，也不一定利润上升。
四月机经5次
V1Provincia Airline最近利润狂降,调查可能有两个原因:一是油价涨,二是他们买了很多新飞机.但是另一项调查表明其他航空公司也经历了油价上涨,但是利润也上涨,因此表明油价涨并不是我们公司利润狂降的唯一原因.为了提高利润,我们应该停止购买新飞机
[V2] Procia's profits decrease as the oil price increased at the beginning of the month. However other airlines also faced the problem but their profits increase. So Procia decided to eliminate the planes it purchased earlier.
[V3] 一个航空公司商业分析人说公司去年盈利严重下降,然后又说去年发生了油价上涨跟航线增加,但是在油价上涨的情况下有部分航线还是盈利了,所以油价不是问题,该人建议管理层砍掉几个航线来改变盈利下跌的情况
没有对应题库
提供观点：
1、其他航空公司的利润上涨是否存在他因？如strategy的调整、成本控制
2、缺乏与其他航空公司更comprehensive 的对比
3、购买新飞机是否是导致利润下降的主要原因？停止购买不一定能阻止利润下降

houri

（17）本月机经1次 上月机经4次
No.1 The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 centsfor one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrateits twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”

下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商（processor）奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。比如在彩色胶卷处理方面，3/5英寸照片的成本从1970年的5天50cent降至1984年的1天20cent。同样的规律适用于食品处理方面。由于奥林匹克食品即将庆祝它的25岁生日，我们可以指望我们长期的经验会使我们达到最小的成本和最大的利润。
提供观点：
1.        false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry.
2.        causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out.
3.        gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company  can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.

1.         错误类比：color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film.
2.        同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的？很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。
3.        gratuitous assumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经out of date.

北美范文：
Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author’s rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.
First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.
As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author’s view.

houri

（18）本月机经2次 上月机经11次
The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company:
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintains better supervision of all employees.”（2）
提供观点：
1.        causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.
2.        all things are equal: The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future.
3.        either-or-or choice: The  author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives, there is no middle ground between they two. In fact, we can have the field offices under centralized control.

北美范文：
In this argument the author concludes that the Apogee Company should close down field offices and conduct all its operations from a single, centralized location because the company had been more profitable in the past when all its operations were in one location. For a couple of reasons, this argument is not very convincing.
First, the author assumes that centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and streamlining supervision of employees. This assumption is never supported with any data or projections. Moreover, the assumption fails to take into account cost increases and inefficiency that could result from centralization. For instance, company representatives would have to travel to do business in areas formerly served by a field office, creating travel costs and loss of critical time. In short, this assumption must be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis of centralization versus other possible cost-cutting and/or profit-enhancing strategies.
Second, the only reason offered by the author is the claim that Apogee was more profitable when it had operated from a single, centralized location. But is centralization the only difference relevant to greater past profitability? It is entirely possible that management has become lax regarding any number of factors that can affect the bottom line such as inferior products, careless product pricing, inefficient production, poor employee expense account monitoring, ineffective advertising, sloppy buying policies and other wasteful spending. Unless the author can rule out other factors relevant to diminishing profits, this argument commits the fallacy of assuming that just because one event (decreasing profits) follows another (decentralization), the second event has been caused by the first.
In conclusion, this is a weak argument. To strengthen the conclusion that Apogee should close field offices and centralize, this author must provide a thorough cost-benefit analysis of available alternatives and rule out factors other than decentralization that might be affecting current profits negatively.

houri

（19）本月机经1次 上月机经8次
The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”
*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
报纸的图书版的文章： 现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名著。这和文学名著接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。

v1.投资公司的一个A：现在人们有途径能够在网上用很低的价钱看到电子书。人们可以在网上看到经典的文学作品。然后说调查显示72%的人愿意看电子书，81%的人愿意看传统的书籍。结论是应该投钱给E-CLassics 公司，因为这是一个新开的电子书店。
V2.有关E-book on literal classics
大意是说：现在买电子书不用花钱或者只需很低价格。然后有一个online survey说xx%人会看电子书，xx%人觉得看literal classics很重要。因此作者推荐xx公司投资做literal classics的电子书业务。
提供思路：
1.        More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.
2.        the survey is doubtful
3.        It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net.
北美范文
In this article the author concludes that literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before. The author’s line of reasoning is that the availability of books in electronic form and access of books via the Internet has removed the two major impediments that prevented people from reading literary classics, namely price and convenient access. Since books can be accessed from home or work via computers at little or no cost, the author believes that significant changes in the society will occur. Specifically, the author maintains that access to literary classics will affect the public’s taste in reading and will result in a more learned and cultured reading audience. The author’s argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that price and convenient access are the primary reasons people fail to read literary classics. While this is a tempting assumption, it is not obviously true. For example, other reasons, such as lack of interest in these books or awareness of them on the part of the reading public could equally account for the failure to read them. Consequently, it may turn out that, contrary to the author’s expectation, the number of people who read literary classics is unaffected by their increased availability and lower cost.
Second, while it may be the case that access to books at affordable prices has increased as a result of new technology, the author provides no evidence for the assumption that access to literary classics at affordable prices has increased as well. On the face of it, this assumption seems innocuous; however there may be reasons that prevent literary classics from being marketed in the fashion described by the author. For example, the inability to secure the requisite permissions to reproduce these books in electronic form, or the lack of commercial interest in marketing them via the Internet could undermine the author’s assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is not convincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence for the assumption that price and accessibility are the main reasons people fail to read literary classics. Additionally, evidence would be required for the assumption that access to literary classics
will be increased.

houri

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