托福写作：满分魔板填空法练习

Riff

　　文章最后我就用这2道ARGUMENT真题来让大家体会一下如何填空，由于篇幅有限，所以我直接给出了答案，希望大家在自己练习“满分魔板填空法”的时候先自己按照这两道真题题目本身进行填空，再对照我的标准答案，只有这样才能够体会到“满分魔板填空法”的精髓所在。
　　例题一：The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
　　“Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and restore hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View’s tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell’s economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and restore hotel similar to those in Ocean View.
　　题目结论：末句。　　1. 在两个事物之间进行的弱类比——错误类比(False analogy)/不全面比较或有选择比较(incomplete comparison or selected comparison)
　　题目通过与类似事物的比较得出关于某一事物的结论(城市、学校、公司)但表层的共性并不能否定更深层次的差异。/比较两个事物时，只比较少数几个方面，或只比较对自己的观点有利的方面，同时忽略或压制其他重要方面。
　　关键判断词：Similar
　　改错模板：The argument relies on what might be a false analogy between OV and H. In order for a new municipal golf course and restore hotel in OV to serve as models which H should emulate, the major must assume that all the relevant circumstances involving the general and initial economy are essentially the same. However this assumption is unwarranted. For example, the argument overlooks the possibility that the increase of OV’s tax revenues was motivated by other factors/concerns besides the new building in OV. Perhaps those in power changed some policies regarding OV’s tax revenues. As for 30 percent, perhaps the starting point is very low. Or perhaps the improvement of OV’s tax revenues is only because a dominant geographical location in OV.

Riff

　　2.混淆因果关系和相关性(两个现象一起发生)和时间的先后次序(一个现象在另一个现象之后发生)。
　　关键判断词：Two years ago/during the past two years
　　改错模板：The argument is based on a known correlation between building a new municipal golf course accompanied by a restore hotel and the enhancement of OV’s tax revenues, that the latter is attributable, at least partly, to the former. Yet the correlation alone amounts to scant evidence of the claimed cause-and–effect relationship. Perhaps the growth of OV’s tax revenues can be caused by other factors as well, which are absent in these particular states but present in all the others. Moreover, the argument overlooks the fact that two years doesn’t mean forever. The arguer has not accounted for the possibility that the geographical and demographic differences might even lead to opposite result. If this is the case, then the conclusion that H should follow the example of OV would lack any merits whatsoever.

Riff

　　3.认为所有事物是恒定的
　　关键判断词：Two years ago/during the past two years
　　改错模板：The arguer’s claim unfairly infers form OV’s comparatively promotion of tax revenues in the past that H should copy/indiscriminately imitate. Absent evidence to support this inference, it is just as likely that the global economy had been gliding. For that matter, perhaps the OV’s experience would contribute less to H or even nothing. Any of these assumptions, if true, would serve to undermine the claim that H should do the same thing as OV.
　　例题二：Now is the time to invest in a PLG franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trend: PLG is already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year’s sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a PLG franchise will guarantee a quick profit.

Riff

题目结论：末句。
1.整体特征不一定适合于群体中的每个个体；同样，局部特征也不能表明整体特征。
关键判断词：your town，500 locations
改错模板：The argument assumes that the general trend that PLG is already popular among customers infers the trend in specific regions upon which the argument relies. Yet, the brochure fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such evidence, it is just likely that PLG may not be so popular in the proposed town as it in the 500 locations; for that matter, perhaps in the mentioned region the people’s hobbies are just on the contrary, in which event the arguer’s recommendation would amount to especially poor advice.

Riff

2.急于概括：在证据不足的情况下作出普遍的概括
因果关系简单化：忽略了因果关系的复杂性：一因到多果/多因合一果
错误的两难处境：把复杂的问题简化为非此即彼的两种选择
改错模板：The recommendation depends on the assumption that no alternative means of influencing people’s concern on personal health are available. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. Admittedly, the last year’s sales of books, magazines and home exercise equipment are some evidence that could ensure a quick profit in some sense. However, it is entirely possible that other relevant factors might result in no profit at all. Perhaps a much quicker profit should result from investing in another program. Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative means of reducing profit, the arguer cannot confidently conclude that PLG franchise is a wise investment.

Riff

　　3.数据类问题(survey/study/poll)
　　(1) What procedure is used?
　　调查的结果是否具有代表性(representative)，是否遵循了随机性原则(the principal of random )：全体成员有同样的机会(the same opportunity)被抽到不能事先把一部分成员排除在外。
　　(2) How large was the sample?
　　抽样调查必须保证从调查对象的总体(the whole)中抽取足够大(adequate/sufficient)的样本，否则，调查的结果就缺少可信度(credibility)。
　　(3)Are the statistics misleadingly vague?
　　调查过程与结果的叙述应该使用明确的数字，如：具体的数字、比例或百分比。而不要模糊如：many, majority,以及不知道底数的百分比。
　　(4)Are the statistics complete?
　　作者只提供了部分相关数据
　　(5)Are the statistics important?
　　数据与作者试图证明的假设之间没有必然的联系
　　(6)When was the survey conducted?
　　调查的时间可能影响结果的代表性如：人们在选举前对政治新闻的兴趣可能变大，中国CCTV-5对NBA 火箭队的兴趣等

Riff

　　关键判断词：National surveys
　　(样本不具备代表性)改错模板：(1) One problem with the argument involves the cited statistics about sales of books and magazines. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusions about their sales in the future based on statistics regarding last year’s. Depending on the total number of books and magazines, it is entirely possible that those on personal health are not representative of the whole. For example, perhaps the sales regarding sports totaled more than $50 billion. If so, then the arguer’s recommendation might amount to poor advice for us.
　　(收集数据过程有误)改错模板：(2)The survey methodology might be problematic in two aspects. First, we are not informed whether the survey required that respondents choose their concern between alternatives. If it did, then the results might distort the preferences of respondents, who might very well prefer a certain one not provided in the survey. Secondly, we are not informed whether survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were not, the respondents might have provided responses that they believed those in power would approve of, regardless of whether the responses were truthful. In either event, the survey results would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing any conclusions about people’s real increasing inclination.