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In this argument the author concludes that in order to reverse the deterioration of the postal service, the government should raise the price of postage stamps. The author makes a further prediction that such solution will be effective. The author's line of reasoning is that the larger revenues and smaller volume of mail due to the price increase will eliminate the strain on the existing system and contribute to improved morale. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from three critical flaws.
First, the argument rests on a gratuitous assumption that the deterioration is due to the low price of postage stamps. However, the assumption is questionable because the author provides no evidence to support this argument. The arguer fails to take into account other facts that might contribute to the result of the deterioration. It is likely that the increasing use of Email causes people to lose interest in traditional snail mail; it is also likely that the poor postal service contribute to the deterioration. Any of these scenarios, if true, would show that raise the price of postage stamps will not solve the problem. Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibilities.
Second, the author unfairly assumes that the increased price will generate larger revenues. A price increase will generate more revenue only if the volume of mail remains constant or increases. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case, nor does the author cite any evidence to support the assumption. Lacking this assumption, the conclusion is unfounded. Moreover, the author has obviously neglected the reverse effects that the price increase might cause. For example, the raise of the price of postage stamps might keep people from using postal service. Thus, the revenues can not increase, they may decrease in reality.
Third, the author makes a questionable assumption that the reduction of the volume of mail will result in improved morale. No evidence is given to support this assumption. In fact, employee morale is materially improved by other means, and that additional revenues will not be used in ways that improve morale. In addition, given that the price increase would decrease the volume of mail, it is entirely possible that the size of labor force might be also reduced, which in turn would undermine morale.
In sum, the author's argument is not compelling because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author claims. To strengthen the conclusion, the author would have to provide evidence that adjusting stamp price will reverse the deterioration of the postal service. In addition, supporting that the price increase will generate larger revenues and contribute to improved morale would further substantiate the author' view.
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