GWD3-Q31

Jeffrey-N

Although most smoking-related illnesses are caused by inhaling the tar in tobacco smoke, it is addiction to nicotine that prevents most smokers from quitting.  In
an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette by half over the next five years.  Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.
The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?

• The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.
• Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.
• The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years.
• The proportion of Sandonians attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years.
• The number of Sandonians who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years.

选A,A确实是对的，但请问D错哪了？比例确实是可能下降了呀。

maxwhite

问同问~~！！！一样的疑问，哪位大神来解答一下~~~！！  其实我怎么觉得D更好一点· 到底是怎么样的呀！！！

weidehou

D) is irrelevant I'd say.

Conclusion: question
premises:1) addiction to nichotine prevents ppl from quitting
              2) govt reduces nichotine by half over the next 5 years in order to decrease desease
              3) BUT, ppl already addicted to nichotine tend to smoke more

哪一个answer是可以被遇见的。
A) 肯定没问题啦。。。。
B) 不关non-addicted 什么事儿
C) premises里没说管不管用。。
D) premises里面没说关于戒烟成功啊。。。。
E) 无关

henryest

首先D肯定是错的，因为比例实际上是提高了。因为nicotine降低，那么不上瘾的人会增加，所以成功戒烟的比例肯定会上升。
由此推理，我觉得应该选E。文章提到了nicotine是阻止quit的原因，那么nicotine降低了，阻止quit的效果就降低了，所以可能会有更多人退出吸烟，得出未来5年退出人数“可能”会超过以前5年。
A其实也是对的，不过我想因为文章明确提到降低nicotine会让他们吸更多烟，那肯定得病率就会increasing,用not decrease有点奇怪，难道会有不变的情况？
虽然看了各种解释但我依然觉得E才是正确答案，求解答....

cindytaurus

同楼上的，我也选E

Zingales

E 是无关选项，正文里面根本就没提到戒烟成功与否的问题，