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44. 7月3次,6月4次，5月3次，4月7次（17）
The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
1.        增长20%未必是因为added a pharmacy section
2.        过去因为added a pharmacy section to our grocery store而导致增加20%的sales，在将来未必能实现相同效益
3.        即使有这个trend，未必clothing department，restaurant and a garden shop一样可以增长效益，可能药房附近独此一家
4.        即使可以增长效益，但是未必profit就一定增长

42. The following appeared in the opinion section of a national newsmagazine.
“To reverse the deterioration of the postal service, the government should raise the price of postage stamps. This solution will no doubt prove effective, since the price increase will generate larger revenues and will also reduce the volume of mail, thereby eliminating the strain on the existing system and contributing to improved morale.”
1.        deterioration of the postal service未必仅仅是因为price，所以可能有别的原因导致，比如竞争，行业本身的流程管理问题
2.        如果raise the price，不一定能generate larger revenue。如果volume因此大幅下降，可能减少revenue，那么即使eliminate the strain，却无法improve morale；如果volume持平，虽然增加revenue，但是没有eliminate the strain
3.        morale和raise the price也未必有关系，可能是fixed

38. 7月1次, 6月1次，5月2次，4月6次（10）
The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper.
“Because occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year, so did housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”
1.        不能因为去年低，就减少available room，将来趋势可能不同
2.        rent未必是原因，可能有别的原因，比如设施，服务
3.        减少提供的房子，降低房租，很可能导致收入下降

105. 7月7次,6月2次，5月2次，4月8次（19）
The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”
1.        课程多少和升学率高低并无直接关系，可能有别的原因导致，比如学生本身素质
2.        higher proportion to college is not an overall measurement of student performance, However, given a broader conception of student excellence that takes into account student’s ability to learn and apply their knowledge to new situations, its is not obvious that college admission is reliable indicator of performance
3.        减少课程未必能save tax，改前和改后都一样
4.        即使课程有关联，在private school可行的未必在saluda可以，可能学生接受程度，家长态度，师资力量

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106. 7月2次，6月5次，5月8次（15）
The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”
*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
1. 电子书普及未必导致literary classics更广泛的被阅读，可能只是阅读business书籍or entertaining book
2. 调查未给出对象的数量，无法从72%和81%知道样本是否随即，是否够大能代表整体，是否权威；即使调查可靠，72%和81%有多大的交集未知
3. 未必投资开电子书店赚钱，一方面是竞争，一方面是读literary classics的市场

16. The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.
“Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields.”
1.        an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years并不代表enroll college的人一定增加
2.        即使上大学的人有所增加，也未必会导致大学教师的需求增加
3.        即使有所增加，所有fields的都一样容易找到大学教师的工作，可能有的field比较热门，而有的不变
4.        即使所有fields的大学教师需求都有所增加，未必Waymarsh University毕业的就有好就业前景

10. 7月4次,6月6次，5月11次，4月4次（25）
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”
1.        样本200未必不具代表性，如果是随机抽取，完全可以代表
2.        样本12000未必具代表性
3.        即使的确12000占大多数，不去protest不代表不关心，: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break

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108. 7月4次，6月2次，5月10次，4月4次（20）
The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
1.        increase use of the center by members不代表member人数增加，可能是相同的会员，来的次数增加，所以并没有增加membership fee
2.        时序性因果：12%增长未必是因为opening the new swimming pool early last summer，可能小区入住人数增加
3.        即使是因为new swimming pool，也不能说增加别的娱乐设施一定能成功，可能增加cost，反而降低，或者这些设施并非为大家所接受

9. 7月2次，6月2次，5月6次，4月7次（17）
The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
1.        调查并未给出绝对值，39%不一定代表多，25%不一定代表少
2.        middle-aged people will increase和retail sales to increase没有必然因果关系，可能将来的趋势恰恰相反
3.        replace products intended to attract the younger consumer也未必能提升sales，可能因为替换而减少的sales比增长的更多

14. 6月1次，5月8次（9）
The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”
1.        two years ago不能说明未来趋势
2.        Nova High School不能类推到all schools
3.        three academic subjects不能类推到throughout the curriculum.

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110. 7月4次，6月1次，5月3次，4月3次（11）
The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.
“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”
1.        cold winter未必一定slow ice cream sales，虽然冷，但是可能时间短
2.        revenue fell by 10%未必是因为cold winter，可能有别的因素导致，比如口味不符合当地人喜好，管理不善
3.        即使以上皆对，未必open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors的sales会差，可能他们有独特的配方和科学的管理

125. 6月4次，5月5次，4月4次（13）
The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
1.        past two years不代表未来趋势
2.        即使有趋势，未必在Irongate能像在Park Hill district一样成功
3.        即使成功，discount未必代表有profit

12. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.
“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.”
1.        200shoppers可能不是随机的，或者数量不足以代表整体调查对象，无法证明广告一定有效
2.        同时发生“回答看过广告未必是销售增长的原因，可能原来就要买，或者正好是节假日才导致销售增长
3.        last month的调查未必代表将来的趋势，可能last month正好是节假日
4.        spent over $100 at the store.未必表示销售增长，没有提供广告前的数据加以比较

6. 7月3次,6月4次，5月13次，4月7次 （27）
The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
1.        low unemployment rate means labor resource has better placement, demand for resource for star-up within short period time might be more difficult，增加成本
2.        being the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs不代表将来趋势，比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达
3.        attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies和seeking new business opportunities or a new location没有必然的因果关系，甚至代表改地区没有充足的科研人力资源

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39. 7月1次, 6月2次，5月5次，4月2次（10）
The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
1.        1%不代表quite satified，如果乘客的基数很大，那么不满意的乘客人数也很多，和同行业竞争者比呐？和同行业竞争者比，可能1%算高的
2.        不满意的乘客可能没有file complaint，但是不代表他们就满意了
3.        survey是last year的，不代表将来乘客依然满意，可能行业竞争者的服务不断提高

97. 7月2次，6月1次，5月1次（4）
The following appeared as part of an article in a computer magazine.
“A year ago Apex Manufacturing bought its managers computers for their homes and paid for telephone connections so that the managers could access Apex computers and data files from home after normal business hours. Since last year, productivity at Apex has increased by 15 percent. Other companies can learn from the success at Apex: given home computers and access to company resources, employees will work additional hours at home and thereby increase company profits.”
1.        时序因果：programme和productivity未必是因果关系，可能是别的因素导致，比如流程优化
2.        Apex成功的，在别的公司未必成功，可能行业不同；manager错误类推all employees
3.        执行该programme，work additional hours未必能increase profit，可能增加投入，降低profit

97.  The following was excerpted from an article in a farming trade publication.
“Farmers who switched from synthetic to organic farming last year have seen their crop yields decline. Many of these farmers feel that it would be too expensive to resume synthetic farming at this point, given the money that they invested in organic farming supplies and equipment. But their investments will be relatively minor compared to the losses from continued lower crop yields. Organic farmers should switch to synthetic farming rather than persist in an unwise course. And the choice to farm organically is financially unwise, given that it was motivated by environmental rather than economic concerns.”
1.        yields decline未必是switched from synthetic to organic farming造成的，可能是刚转了技术不熟练，天气原因，或者使用杀虫剂不当等因素造成
2.        switch并非不financially wise，可能优良的土壤，可以加快收成，较少杀虫剂使用量，使用更长时间，从而获得长期经济效益

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1. 7月3次,6月1次，5月4次，4月6次（14）
The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
1.        cost down未必代表become more efficient，可能是supply更多，采购成本降低因素导致
2.        film industry和food industry不同，后者要面临food保质，运输等问题
3.        仅仅因为Olympic Foods有25年历史，未必就能minimize costs，可能流程或技术没有改进

A3. The following appeared in a memorandum from the development director of the Largo Piano Company.
“The Largo Piano Company has long been known for producing carefully handcrafted, expensive pianos used by leading concert pianists. During the past few years, however, our revenues have declined; meanwhile, the Allegro Musical Instrument Company introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos and then saw its revenues increase. In order to increase Largo’s sales and in fact outsell Allegro, we should introduce a line of digital pianos in a variety of price ranges. Our digital pianos would be likely to find instant acceptance with customers, since they would be associated with the prestigious Largo name.”
1.        Allegro Musical Instrument Company的revenues increase未必是因为introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos，可能是因为宣传
2.        即使是，也不代表The Largo Piano Company同样会成功，可能消费者觉得Allegro Musical Instrument的低价品质量够好了，不想转品牌

31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
1.        past 40 years的trend未必代表将来趋势，可能会发生改变
2.        老人增加的同时，可能年亲人也在增加
3.        增加的老人未必是coffee drinker
4.        consumption increase不代表revenue increase，可能年轻人消费的都是价格贵的可乐，而aged消费的都是便宜的coffee


34. 7月3次,6月1次，本月6次，上月5次（14）
The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president.
“The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.”
1.        poll仅仅是show a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues，这和attract new customers, increase use among existing customers没有必然的因果关系，可能他们大部分都不使用credit card，或者已经有别的credit card
2.        可能公众关心的environment和这个well-known environmental organization并不同，也就无法recognize他们的logo
3.        权衡了额外付出的成本和收益之后并不一定值得这么做

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B1. 7月3次,6月5次（8）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the head of a human resources department at a major automobile manufacturing company to the company's managers:
“Studies have found that employees of not-for-profit organizations and charities are often more highly motivated than employees of for-profit corporations to perform well at work when their performance is not being monitored or evaluated. Interviews with employees of not-for-profit organizations suggest that the reason for their greater motivation is the belief that their work helps to improve society. Because they believe in the importance of their work, they have personal reasons to perform well, even when no financial reward is present. Thus, if our corporation began donating a significant portion of its profits to humanitarian causes, our employees’ motivation and productivity would increase substantially and our overall profits would increase as well.”
1.        not-for-profit organizations的员工和企业的员工错误类比，即使企业donate，也未必能提高employees’ motivation，员工择业动机就不同
2.        即使可以提高employees’ motivation，未必能提高profit，可能增加了慈善的支出

40. 6月5次，5月10次，4月6次（21）
The following appeared as part of an article in a weekly newsmagazine.
“The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.”
1.        降低价格固然能提高竞争力，但是未必export就能增加，可能市场需求已饱和
2.        价格的降低和销量的增加，最后对trade deficit是pos还是neg impact不确定
3.        即使糖打开出口，但未必是解决trade deficit最好的方法，也许减少进口依赖更有效

62. 7月1次, 6月1次，5月7次，4月7次（16）
The following appeared in the letters-to-the-editor section of a local newspaper.
“Muscle Monthly, a fitness magazine that regularly features pictures of bodybuilders using state-of-the-art exercise machines, frequently sells out, according to the owner of Skyview Newsstand. To help maximize fitness levels in our town's residents, we should, therefore, equip our new community fitness center with such machines.”
1.        bodybuilders未必是因为使用这些state-of-the-art exercise machines
2.        Muscle Monthly frequently sells out未必 machines好，可能是有优惠券
3.        即使机器好，但是未必就适合town residents，并且能maximize fitness levels，可能报上的是专门练肌肉的，而town residents大多是aged，需要另外的器械(有氧运动aerobic exercise)
4.        即使需要的器械一样，效果未必一样好，可能还缺专业训练

11. 6月4次，5月2次，4月5次（11）
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
1.        缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事
2.        Montoya市长期间的population, unemployment rate, business不好，并不代表他能力不强，可能正是经济不景气，比起其他城市已经很好了
3.        Varro市长期间的population, unemployment rate, business好，并不代表他能力强，可能正好经济环境好，或国家政策倾向
4.        市长的好坏，也不仅仅凭借population, unemployment rate, business这些指标

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72. 7月3次,6月4次，5月10次，4月10次（27）
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
1.        A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend，可能正好是淡季
2.        即使能表示trend，也不能表示将来的趋势
3.        clothing stores的profits decreased以及home product stores的profits increase未必表示consumer change purchase practice，可能别的因素导致采购成本上升，竞争激烈
4.        错误类比，别的店的情况和our store不同，未必switch就能成功，可能即经常光顾我们店的consumer更愿意买clothing

B6. 7月1次 (1)
The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner:
“Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights.”
1.        price rise steadily未必绝对值就高，可能原来比较低，即使现在涨了，还是没有Palm Grove高
2.        即使绝对值是S高，未必overpriced，可能发展了
3.        past several years不能说明未来的趋势，可能因为别的原因导致相反的趋势，或者将来有更好的发展空间

A1. The following editorial appeared in the South Fork Gazette.
“Last year, the city contracted with Flower Power to plant a variety of flowers in big decorative pots on Main Street and to water them each week. By midsummer many of the plants were wilted. This year the city should either contract for two waterings a week or save money by planting artificial flowers in the pots. According to Flower Power, the initial cost for artificial flowers would be twice as much as for real plants, but after two years, we would save money. Public reaction certainly supports this position: in a recent survey, over 1,200 Gazette readers said that the city wastes money and should find ways to reduce spending.”
1.        wilt并不一定是因为真花，或者浇水少，可能别的因素导致，比如空气污染
2.        1200是否随机抽出，是否能够代表大众的意见
3.        大众只是说政府应该find ways to reduce spending，并不代表他们support artificial flowers，可能他们根本不赞成形象工程

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B3. 7月1次
The following appeared in a memorandum from the information technology department of a major advertising firm:
“The more efficient a firm’s employees are, the more profitable that firm will be. Improvements in a firm’s information technology hardware and software are a proven way to increase the efficiency of employees who do the majority of their work on computers. Therefore, if our firm invests in the most powerful and advanced information technology available, employee productivity will be maximized. This strategy ensures that every dollar spent on enhanced information technology will help to increase our firm’s profit margins.”
1.        more efficient a firm’s employees are和more profitable that firm will be没有必然的因果关系，可能labor cost降低，但是还有其他cost
2.        IT hardware and software未必能increase the efficiency of employees，还涉及流程，管理
3.        即使能，但是可能购置IT hardware and software投入很高，未必能increase profit

43. 7月3次,5月7次，4月8次(18)
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”
1.        university hospitals employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients等未必表示quality lower，可能area小，送来的病人情况都是最严重的
2.        many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients不能说明low quality，可能恰恰证明他们的技术更加高超
3.        our region推所有

47. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
“The owners of the Cumquat Café evidently made a good business decision in moving to a new location, as can be seen from the fact that the Café will soon celebrate its second anniversary there. Moreover, it appears that businesses are not likely to succeed at the old location: since the Café’s move, three different businesses — a tanning salon, an antique emporium, and a pet-grooming shop — have occupied its former spot.”
1.        在新地址庆祝第二个周年纪念日只能说明，搬到新地址之后咖啡店继续存活了下来但是不是比原来好了作者并没有给出足够的证据证明。
2.        导致另外三家店无法在那个地点经营下去的原因可能并表示不是地址而是其他因素
3.        那个地址就算不适合开那三种店打算内并没有证据证明也不适合开咖啡店

B9.The following appeared in a memorandum to a team developing accounting software for SmartPro Software, Inc.:
“Currently, more professional accountants use SmartPro accounting software than any other brand. However, in the market for personal accounting software for non-professionals to use in preparing their income tax returns, many of our competitors are outselling us. In surveys, our professional customers repeatedly say that they have chosen SmartPro Software because our most sophisticated software products include more advanced special features than competing brands. Therefore, the most effective way for us to increase sales of our personal accounting software for home users would clearly be to add the advanced special features that our professional software products currently offer.”
1.        survey是针对professional customers，不能代表home users的需求，可能他们希望操作更加简单，或价格低廉
2.        即使是，但add the advanced special features可能会导致成本上升，带动价格上升，而失去这部分客户

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86. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a daily newspaper.
“Company A has a large share of the international market in video-game hardware and software. Company B, the pioneer in these products, was once a $12 billion-a-year giant but collapsed when children became bored with its line of products. Thus Company A can also be expected to fail, especially given the fact that its games are now in so many American homes that the demand for them is nearly exhausted.”
1.        B错误类推A
2.        America demand exhausted错误推断所有需求减少，可能别的国家需求增加可以offset，B可能推新品

32. 7月1次,6月2次，5月7次，4月6次（16）
The following appeared in the editorial section of a West Cambria newspaper.
“A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service.”
1.        longer average response time to accidents未必说明volunteer ambulance service不好，可能当地是山区，道路情况不好
2.        即使是，不能类比our town，可能我们town的volunteer ambulance service有更充足的资金，更完善的管理
3.        就算是商业的更快，也不一定更好。反映时间不是唯一的因素，有其他——比如服务的质量，态度，器材等等
4.        除非商业可以charge considerable fees 或者 accident rate非常高，否则未必带来可观的revenue

B8. The following appeared in a presentation by the chief production manager of a machine parts manufacturing company at a management meeting:
“Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.”
1. drill bits不能类推到all other individual machine parts, 所以dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories未必能reducing the production costs of individual machine parts
2. overall production costs包括很多别的cost，比如maintenance, labor，所以reducing the production costs of individual machine parts并不一定是only way to achieve our goal