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OG-CR第78题对标准答案异议,大家来讨论下



原题78. A recent report determined that although only 3
percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped
their vehicles with radar detectors, 33 percent of all
vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were
equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their
vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed
the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the
following assumptions?

(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar
detectors are less likely to be ticketed for
exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who
do not.
(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the
speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed
limit regularly than are drivers who are not
ticketed.
(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for
exceeding the speed limit was greater than the
number of vehicles that were equipped with
radar detectors.
(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for
exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more
than once in the time period covered by the
report.
(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the
speed limit more often than did drivers on other
state highways not covered in the report.


标准答案是B


我认为正确答案是D
理由如下:
题目问的结论依靠哪一个assumption?
何谓assumption?即其如果不成立,或者说没有这个前提存在,那么conclusion也就不成立。
3%的司机装了电子狗,33%的超速车是这种装有电子狗的车
得出的结论是装了电子狗的司机比其他司机更可能经常性超速行驶。
如果把问题量化看,马里兰有10000台车,300台装了电子狗(3%)
某天JC上路拦车抓超速,拦了30辆超速车其中有10辆装了电子狗(33%)。
然后写个报告得出结论:装了电子狗的司机比其他司机更可能经常性超速行驶
这结论显然不具代表性,因为取样太少。
如果要扩大代表性,多取样,那么必然要有装了电子狗的超速车多次被抓住超速,才有可能达到33%这个比例,
因此,只有D选项提到这点”许多被罚单的超速车辆在报告调查时期内被罚了不止一次“。
有这个前提假设,conclusion才能够正当成立。


初入GMAT门一个月,请各位前辈指教。
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明白多拉
谢谢二位

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