100. Debater: The average amount of overtime per monthworked by an employee in the manufacturing division of the Haglut Corporationis 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporation work in the manufacturingdivision. Furthermore, the average amount of overtime per month worked by anyemployee in the company generally does not fluctuate much from month to month.Therefore, each month, most employees of the Haglut Corporation almostcertainly work at least some overtime.

The debater’s argument is most vulnerableto criticism on which of these grounds?

(A) It takes for granted that the manufacturing divisionis a typical division of the corporation with regard to the average amount ofovertime its employees work each month.

(B) It takes for granted that if a certain average amountof overtime is worked each month by each employee of the Haglut Corporation,then approximately the same amount of overtime must be worked each month byeach employee of the manufacturing division.

(C) It confuses a claim from which the argument’sconclusion about the Haglut Corporation would necessarily follow with a claimthat would follow from the argument’s conclusion only with a high degree ofprobability.

(D) It overlooks the possibility that even if, onaverage, a certain amount of overtime is worked by the members of some group,many members of that group may work no overtime at all.

(E) It overlooks the possibility that even if mostemployees of the corporation work some overtime each month, any one corporateemployee may, in some months, work no overtime.

Argument Evaluation

Situation Most of the employees of the Haglut Corporation work inthe manufacturing division, where employees average 14 hours per month inovertime. The average amount of overtime per month for employees at Haglut doesnot fluctuate much from month to month.

Reasoning What is the argument’s greatest weakness? The argument’s conclusion is thatalmost certainlyeach month most of the employees ofHaglut work at least some overtime. Answer choice (D) identifies the argument’sgreatest weakness because it points out how the conclusion of the argumentcould be false even if all of the supporting information were true. Forexample, it could be that less than half of the employees work any overtime atall, but those that do work overtime work much more than 14 hours per month.

A The argument leaves open the possibility that in somedivisions of the corporation, the average monthly overtime of its employees isquite different from 14 hours, even if (as the argument states) that averagedoes not change much from month to month.

B The argument does not assume that there is a monthlyamount of overtime worked by each employee of the manufacturing divisionequivalent to the company-wide average monthly overtime per employee.

C This does not identify a weakness that can be detectedin the argument. Since the claims mentioned here are not specified, the passageprovides no evidence that clearly indicates that this type of confusion isplaying a role in the argument.

D Correct.The argument ignores the possibilitythat most of the employees of Haglut work no overtime at all in a particularmonth—which is quite consistent with the argument’s assertion that the averagenumber of monthly overtime hours per employee within the manufacturing divisionis 14.

E The possibility described by this is not overlooked bythe argument, because this possibility is consistent with the conclusion. Itcould easily be that most employees of the corporation work some overtime eachmonth—as the conclusion envisions—but that there are always some employees whodo not work any overtime.