标题: 5月3日换题库了——5月GMAT作文新题汇总AA（21-40题） [打印本页]
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:04 标题: 5月3日换题库了——5月GMAT作文新题汇总AA（21-40题）
21
本月5次
一个调查显示经常锻炼的人更健康，所以我们可以通过建立体育馆，来降低医疗保险
上月机经4次
原题："Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50 percent and thereby achieve a balanced town budget."(106 or 108)
提供观点：
1.
There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2.
Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3.
Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
北美范文：
In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:04
22. 本月5次
航空公司发现每1000个乘客里面有9个抱怨baggage handle所以航空公司认为1%的比例不会影响他们的goal-maintain and increase the number of passengers.
上月机经2次
原题：The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum:
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”（39）
提供观点：
1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？
2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉
3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivailize
1， 没有complaint不代表没有不满。
2， 没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。
北美范文：
The conclusion in this Avia Airlines memorandum is that a review of the airline’s baggage-handling procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia passengers. The author’s line of reasoning is that the great majority of Avia passengers are happy with baggage handling at the airline because only one percent of passengers who traveled on Avia last year filed a complaint about Avia’s procedures. This argument is problematic in two important respects.
First, the argument turns on the assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with the airline’s baggage-handling procedures. However, the author provides no evidence to support this assumption. The fact that, on the average, 9 out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It is possible that many passengers were displeased but too busy to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more complete information about passengers’ attitudes, we cannot assume that the great majority of passengers who did not complain were happy.
Secondly, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might distort the seriousness of the problem. Given that most modern aircraft carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is possible that Avia received as many as 4 or 5 complaints per flight. The author unfairly trivializes this record. Moreover, the author fails to compare Avia’s record with those of its competitors. It is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-handling complaints last year. If so, Avia’s one percent complaint rate might be significant enough to motivate customers to switch to another airline.
In conclusion, the author has failed to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-handling procedures at Avia Airlines is not needed to maintain or increase the number of Avia’s passengers. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least provide affirmative evidence that most Avia passengers last year were indeed happy with baggage-handling procedures. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the numbers of Avia passengers per flight last year and about the baggage-handling records of Avia’s competitors.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:05
23. 本月5次
信用卡公司打算用部分的利润来交换某个环境组织的logo的使用权。因为根据最近的一个调查，说a large percentage of the public show great concern 在环保上，这个策略可以吸引新的顾客
上月机经5次
原题：The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president:
“The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.”（34）
提供观点：
1、环保组织所提供的标识所关心的方面和民众所关心的方面可能不一致
2、关心环保问题不意味着他们就一定会采取一些具体的措施象是在这个例子里面购买这个公司的产品
The author assumes that the public's concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem-in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card.
3、权衡了额外付出的成本和收益之后并不一定值得这么做.
1， 首先，关心环境的人，不一定是使用信用卡的。第二，关心环境问题的人，关心的issues不一定与该组织的相同。
2， 因果关系不明确：不一定人们关心环保就一定用使用信用卡的方式来表达。因为More often，人们可能采取更加直接的方式，比如直接donate money to the environmental organization.
3， 另外，利润率关系到收入和支出，很可能两个比较收入小于支出。
北美范文：
In this argument the author concludes that the Easy Credit Company would gain several advantages over its competitors by donating a portion of its profits to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of the organization’s logo on their credit card. The author reaches this conclusion on the basis of a recent poll that shows widespread public concern about environmental issues. Among the advantages of this policy, the author foresees an increase in credit card use by existing customers, the ability to charge higher interest rates, and the ability to attract new customers. While the author’s argument has some merit, it suffers from two critical problems.
To begin with, the author assumes that the environmental organization whose logo is sought is concerned with the same environmental issues about which the poll shows widespread concern. However, the author provides no evidence that this is the case. It is possible that very few credit-card users are concerned about the issues that are the organization’s areas of concern; if so, then it is unlikely that the organization’s logo would attract much business for the Easy Credit Company.
Next, the author assumes that the public’s concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem—in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card. This assumption is unsupported and runs contrary to experience. Also, it is more reasonable to assume that people who are concerned about a particular cause will choose a more direct means of expressing their concern.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author must show a positive link between the environmental issues about which the public has expressed concern and the issues with which this particular environmental organization is concerned. In addition, the author must provide evidence to support the assumption that concern about a problem will cause people to do something about the problem.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:05
24. 本月5次
某个department store发现中年人比起年轻人花更多的钱在这个department stores上，而且他们预计中年人占的人口比例会越来越多，所以决定在未来几年把针对年轻人的商品都换成针对中年人的，以达到提高利润的目的～
上月机经7次
原题：The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
提供观点：
1、The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author.
2、all things are equal
3、Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset
4、by the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.
从黄金80篇里找了三篇范文
Sample essay 1:
The argument that department retail sales will increase in the next 10 years and thus department stores should begin to replace products to attract middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it omits certain crucial assumptions
First of all, the argument ignores the absolute amount of retail expenditure of middle-aged and younger consumers devoted to department store products and services. Although younger consumers spend a smaller percentage of their retail expenditure to department store products than do the middle-aged consumers, they might actually spend more in terms of the absolute amount.
Even if middle-aged consumers are spending more than younger ones in department stores, the argument ignores the possibility that the trend may change within the next decade. Younger consumers might prefer to shop in department stores than in other types of stores, and middle-aged consumers might turn to other types of stores, too. This will lead to a higher expenditure of younger consumers in department stores than that of middle-aged consumers.
Besides, the argument never addresses the population difference between middle-aged consumers and younger ones. Suppose there are more younger consumers than the middle-aged ones now, the total population base of younger consumers will be bigger than that of the middle-aged ones if both of them grow at the same rate in the next decade. Thus there will be a bigger younger consumer base.
Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been more convincing by making it clear that the absolute population of middle-aged consumers are higher than that of the younger consumers and the number will continue to grow in the next decade, and that the middle-aged consumers will continue to spend more money in department stores than younger consumers do in the next decade.
Sample essay 2:
The argument that retailers should replace some of the products intended to attract the younger consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument omits the assumption that the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers are the same. If the business volume of the middle-aged consumers’ 39% is smaller than that of the younger consumers’ 25%, the retail sales will not increase during the next decade.
Second, even if the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers were the same in the last decade, the increase of the middle-aged people in the next decade is not the same as the increase of the retail expenditure, for the retail trade depends more on such factors as the economic circumstances, people’s consuming desire.
Finally, the argument never assumes the increase of the younger consumers within the next decade. If the younger consumers increase at the same rate and spend the same amount of money on the goods and services of department stores, the retailers should never ignore them.
Thus the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the growing number of middle-aged people within the next decade does little to prove the conclusion—that department stores should begin to replace some of their products to attract the middle-aged consumers since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the business volumes of both types of consumers are the same and comparable, that the increase of a certain type of consumers are correlated with the increase of the retail sales, and that the growth rate of the younger consumers are the same as that of the middle-aged consumers.
Sample essay 3:
Based on an expected increase in the number of middle-aged people during the next decade, the author predicts that retail sales at department stores will increase significantly over the next ten years. To bolster this prediction, the author cites statistics showing that middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage of their retail expenditure to department-store services and products than younger consumers do. Since the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise and since they spend more than younger people on department-store goods and services, the author further recommends that department stores begin to adjust their inventories to capitalize on this trend. Specifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory of products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory of products aimed at younger consumers. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily portend an overall increase in department-store sales. It does so only on the assumption that other population groups will remain relatively constant. For example, if the expected increase in the number of middle-aged people is offset by an equally significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will be little or no net gain in sales.
Second, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to attract younger consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the author assumes that the number of younger consumers will not also increase. Since a sizable increase in the population of younger consumers could conceivably offset the difference in the retail expenditure patterns of younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be unwise to make the recommended inventory adjustment lacking evidence to support this assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will remain relatively constant over the next decade.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:05
25. 本月3次
某C什么school有200多种选修课供学生选择，而另外一个private high school只有90种（貌似）可选，结果人家private school大学升学率老么高了，所以这个人就建议，咱也减少点选修课的吧~~
上月机经8次
原题：The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”（99 or 101）
提供观点：
1. 是否上大学更多就意味着更好呢？概念不对equate——可能去的学校不好。
2. 忽略他因。
3. 错误类比。情况不同，人数多可能必须提供多种课，同时也可能兴趣多。。。
1. causal oversimplification
2. false analogy
3. It is likely that the smaller private school is incapable of offering more courses, or else its students can have better performance.
北美范文：
In this editorial the author recommends that Saluda’s Consolidated High School eliminate half of its 200 courses and focus primarily on basic curriculum in order to improve student performance and save tax revenues. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between Consolidated and the private school is the number of courses offered by each. However, other relevant differences between the schools might account for the difference in the proportion of their graduates who go on to college. For example, the private school’s students might be selected from a pool of gifted or exceptional students, or might have to meet rigorous admission standards whereas Consolidated’s students might be drawn from the community at large with little or no qualification for admission.
Next, the author assumes that the proportion of students who go on to college is an overall measure of student performance. While this is a tempting assumption, its truth is by no means obvious. If student excellence is narrowly defined in terms of the student’s ability to gain access to college, this assumption is somewhat reasonable. However, given a broader conception of student excellence that takes into account student’s ability to learn and apply their knowledge to new situations, its is not obvious that college admission is reliable indicator of performance. For example, students in non-academic disciplines could conceivably perform at high levels within these disciplines but nevertheless be unable to meet college admission standards.
Finally, the author assumes that savings in tax revenues will result from the reduced costs of funding the paired-down curriculum. This is not necessarily true. For example, it could turn out that both programs serve the same number of students and require the same number of classrooms and teacher.
In conclusion, the author has not made a convincing case for the recommendation to eliminate courses at Consolidated and focus on a basic curriculum. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to provide evidence that Consolidated and the private school were sufficiently similar to warrant the analogy between them. Moreover, the relationship between student performance and college admission and the mechanism whereby savings in tax revenues would be accomplished would have to be clarified.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:05
26. 本月7次
V1.Afun toys company successfully use the module which that senior employees take on an aprrence,让新员工观察老员工然后从中学习. 这样的话可以减少很多cost for training program。有人建议他们的公司应该学习这个fun toys company.
V2.摘自a human resouce director in a tire manufacturing company.
”The cost of training the new employee plays an important role in the overall expense of a company. 象the Fun Toys Company 发起一个Apprentice Training Progam. 他们给senior empoloyee发 salary bounus 如果他们自愿参加这个项目。在这个项目中new employee can learn business patterns from the senior employee这样来降低新员工的培训成本。 so no more expensive and cost programs are needed. 所以我们公司也应该象FUN Toys Company 一样用这中项目降低新员工培训的成本。”
粉红栀TX提供的思路：
1 False Analogy. 错误类比了我们公司（tire manufacturing company 和 Fun Toys Company）
2 One-sidedness. 没有考虑cost-effect analysis. 在这个项目实施过程中，给老员工发的salary bonus 可能大于省下的training cost. 并且在学习过程中，新员工可能会学到老员工的一些坏习惯，比如错误操作等
3 “no more expensive ...... are needed.” 过于绝对。在Apprentice Training Program中新员工只能学到专业技能，操作，但是对团队协作力，团队建设等没有很好的培训到。
上月机经2次
A fun toys company sussefully use the module which that senior employees take on an aprrence,让新员工观察老员工然后从中学习. 这样的话可以减少很多expense time for training program。有人建议他们的公司应该学习这个fun toys company.
考古：
[v1]一个公司要省新员工培训费，决定让老员工参加一个program，记录他们的habits and activities,让新员工follow，以省去高昂的cost
[v2] AA是培训员工很费钱，一个玩具商店取消了员工培训，让员工自己向老员工学习，但是有技能的员工有奖励，所以作者的公司也想这么干。
观点：
1.老员工的不一定适合新员工啊，时代在变化嘛
2.可能老员工参加的program也会花费很多
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:06
27. 本月11次
公司以前operation 都在一个地方，比现在更profitable， 什么什么centralization可以减少成本， 员工更容易管理吧
上月机经6次
原题：The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company:
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintains better supervision of all employees.”（2）
提供观点：
1. causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.
2. all things are equal: The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future.
3. either-or-or choice: The author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives, there is no middle ground between they two. In fact, we can have the field offices under centralized control.
北美范文：
In this argument the author concludes that the Apogee Company should close down field offices and conduct all its operations from a single, centralized location because the company had been more profitable in the past when all its operations were in one location. For a couple of reasons, this argument is not very convincing.
First, the author assumes that centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and streamlining supervision of employees. This assumption is never supported with any data or projections. Moreover, the assumption fails to take into account cost increases and inefficiency that could result from centralization. For instance, company representatives would have to travel to do business in areas formerly served by a field office, creating travel costs and loss of critical time. In short, this assumption must be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis of centralization versus other possible cost-cutting and/or profit-enhancing strategies.
Second, the only reason offered by the author is the claim that Apogee was more profitable when it had operated from a single, centralized location. But is centralization the only difference relevant to greater past profitability? It is entirely possible that management has become lax regarding any number of factors that can affect the bottom line such as inferior products, careless product pricing, inefficient production, poor employee expense account monitoring, ineffective advertising, sloppy buying policies and other wasteful spending. Unless the author can rule out other factors relevant to diminishing profits, this argument commits the fallacy of assuming that just because one event (decreasing profits) follows another (decentralization), the second event has been caused by the first.
In conclusion, this is a weak argument. To strengthen the conclusion that Apogee should close field offices and centralize, this author must provide a thorough cost-benefit analysis of available alternatives and rule out factors other than decentralization that might be affecting current profits negatively.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:06
28. 本月7次
v1.投资公司的一个A：现在人们有途径能够在网上用很低的价钱看到电子书。人们可以在网上看到经典的文学作品。然后说调查显示72%的人愿意看电子书，81%的人愿意看传统的书籍。结论是应该投钱给E-CLassics 公司，因为这是一个新开的电子书店。
V2.有关E-book on literal classics
大意是说：现在买电子书不用花钱或者只需很低价格。然后有一个online survey说xx%人会看电子书，xx%人觉得看literal classics很重要。因此作者推荐xx公司投资做literal classics的电子书业务。
原题：The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”
*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
报纸的图书版的文章： 现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名著。这和文学名著接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。
提供思路：
1. More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.
2. the survey is doubtful
3. It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net.
报纸的图书版的文章：
现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名著。这和文学名著接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。
北美范文
In this article the author concludes that literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before. The author’s line of reasoning is that the availability of books in electronic form and access of books via the Internet has removed the two major impediments that prevented people from reading literary classics, namely price and convenient access. Since books can be accessed from home or work via computers at little or no cost, the author believes that significant changes in the society will occur. Specifically, the author maintains that access to literary classics will affect the public’s taste in reading and will result in a more learned and cultured reading audience. The author’s argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that price and convenient access are the primary reasons people fail to read literary classics. While this is a tempting assumption, it is not obviously true. For example, other reasons, such as lack of interest in these books or awareness of them on the part of the reading public could equally account for the failure to read them. Consequently, it may turn out that, contrary to the author’s expectation, the number of people who read literary classics is unaffected by their increased availability and lower cost.
Second, while it may be the case that access to books at affordable prices has increased as a result of new technology, the author provides no evidence for the assumption that access to literary classics at affordable prices has increased as well. On the face of it, this assumption seems innocuous; however there may be reasons that prevent literary classics from being marketed in the fashion described by the author. For example, the inability to secure the requisite permissions to reproduce these books in electronic form, or the lack of commercial interest in marketing them via the Internet could undermine the author’s assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is not convincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence for the assumption that price and accessibility are the main reasons people fail to read literary classics. Additionally, evidence would be required for the assumption that access to literary classics will be increased.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:07
29. 本月4次
Omlypic Food的文章，说把它和color film相比，可以减少成本提高利润。
上月机经6次
原题：The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”（1）
提供观点：
1. false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry.
2. causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out.
3. gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.
1. 错误类比：color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film.
2. 同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的？很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。
3. gratuitous assumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经out of date.
北美范文：
Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author’s rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.
First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “long experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.
As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author’s view.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:07
30. 本月3次
v1一political leader说national parks前五年revenue下跌，那地方有mineral deposit, 要是改成mining company可以提供jobs和tax revenue，所以要把national parks改成mining company。
V2.将一个一tourism为经济主要来源的国家因为环境污染而使经济受到影响，然后在national park 发现mine deposit， 就说mining 可以给政府更多的taxes，并促进就业。 conclusion： permitting mining 对这个国家经济复苏有利。
上月机经7次
V1就是说一个神马national parks 因为 indutrial pollution导致越来越不attractive to tourists。然后人们发现这个公园里有deposits of minerals,然后就提出如果同意mining companies来mine 这些deposits，那么这些公司就会交一大笔tax然后provide 很多jobs。然后这样就可以增加公园的收入神马的。
[V2]一个城市旅游业因为污染不行了，有人就要挖矿，说什么可以带动经济，还create job for those used to work in the tourism industry.
[V3] 一国的经济顾问在给总统的一封信里建议由于本国环境污染严重以致支柱产业旅游业的很多国家公园环境恶化，然后新近在一些国家公园发现矿藏，认为大力开发矿产可以带来大量税收收入并为旅游业萧条后事业的人提供工作机会。并宣称旅游业环境会一直恶化，让该国经济抬头的最好选择就是开矿
[V4] 就是说一个神马national parks 因为 industrial pollution导致越来越不attractive to tourists。然后人们发现这个公园里有deposits of minerals,然后就提出如果同意mining companies来mine 这些deposits，那么这些公司就会交一大笔tax然后provide 很多jobs。然后这样就可以增加公园的收入神马的。
考古
[v1]某國的national park因為周圍的工廠導致污染嚴重，旅游業下降，經濟學家發現在national park下面有很多礦，可以把national park打造成mining industry，從而政府可以從mining company的稅收來盈利，mining company也可以提供給以前在naitonal park工作的人mining的工作。所以這個提議是好的。
[v2] AA．（我看的JJ里还没有，是OG上的吗？我没有看OG 的作文题目）
是一个ECONOMIC ADVISOR写给POLITICAL LEADER的信。内容是：一个W什么的NATION 以往主要依靠旅游业，现在由于它的一些NATIONAL PARKS的吸引力下降，旅游业的REVENUE有下降的趋势。但是幸运的是最近在它的有些NATIONAL PARKS里探明有矿藏。ADVISOR建议允许在这些NATIONAL PARKS里开采矿藏。好处是纳的税能增加政府的REVENUE，同时还能给那些失去工作的旅游业从业人员提供就业机会。另外，就算不允许在公园里开矿，旅游业收入也还是要下滑的。
[v3] 是说一个city的park的tourism数量减少了 是因为industry pollution
于是city government决定在公园里建什么mining
这样可以提高city的revenue并且增加employment的数量
提供观点：
1、采矿会加剧污染。缺少analysis of cost and benefit其导致的旅游业减少所带来的损失可能超过采矿业带来的收益。
2、治理污染可能花费更多
3、以前在naitonal park工作的人不能胜任mining的工作
以下是DarthWalker同学提供的思路
1、失业的旅游业工人不一定具备成为矿工的技能
2、采矿会进一步恶化环境降低旅游收入，两者的比例未知，并且长期的环境破坏损失不可估量
3、除去开矿外还可能有别的促进经济的政策
4、旅游业不一定会继续恶化，也许已经跌到了谷底
5、通过治理环境很可能重新振兴旅游业
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:07
31. 本月8次
关于Waymarsh 大学学生抗议的问题。说因为有12000名学生留在学校或回去度寒假，他们显然对教育问题不关心。这一数字大于200名参加抗议的学生人数，所以州立法机关不用理会那些抗议学生的要求。
上月机经4次
原题：The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”（10）
提供观点：
1. 代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。
2. 没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。
3. 此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。
1， 没有投诉不代表没有不满。很可能学生以其他的方式发泄不满意，比如absent the class, leave the school earlier, 等等。One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that。。。很可能他们已经知道了学生去protest了，所以才没有去。
2， 200名学生不具有代表性的说法不对。很可能是被推选出来的elected to represent the entire students。缺乏根据的论证，错。
北美范文：
The conclusion in this argument is that the state legislature need not consider the views of protesting students. To support this conclusion, the author points out that only 200 of the 12,000 students traveled to the state capitol to voice their concerns about proposed cuts in college programs. Since the remaining students did not take part in this protest, the author concludes they are not interested in this issue. The reasoning in this argument is flawed for two reasons.
First, the author assumes that because only one-tenth of the students took part in the protest, these students’ views are unrepresentative of the entire student body. This assumption is unwarranted. If it turns out, for example, that the protesting students were randomly selected from the entire student body, their views would reflect the views of the entire college. Without information regarding the way in which the protesting students were selected, it is presumptuous to conclude that their opinions fail to reflect the opinions of their colleagues.
Second, the author cites the fact that the remaining 12,000 students stayed on campus or left for winter break as evidence that they are not concerned about their education. One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that the students who did not participate did so with the knowledge that their concerns would be expressed by the protesting students. In any case, the author has failed to demonstrate a logical connection between the students’ alleged lack of concern and the fact that they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Without this connection, the conclusion reached by the author that the remaining 12,000 students are not concerned about their education is unacceptable.
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the author would have to demonstrate that the protesting students had some characteristic in common that biases their views, thereby nullifying their protest as representative of the entire college.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:07
32. 本月9次
一个餐馆在一个地方开了两年后，三明治销售量剧增！于是CEO决定在其他地区再开3家，并且找3个有经验的经理去管理，CEO预测销售量将3倍
上月机经2次
原题：The argument was about a paragraph from a restaurant business newsletter about small franchise restaurants.
A small restaurant owner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. His restaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided to open another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promote his 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the new restaurants. He expects his profits will trip after all restaurants are opened.
题目是确定了，但在题库里没找到，把上个月的寂静的观点拿过来
1. 两年前的生意好不代表今后生意也会好。错误类比吧：其他地方的顾客可能没有第一家餐馆的地方多，没那么多students，所以不一定生意好。
2. 雇员当分店经理了可能管理水平不行啦之类的
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:08
33. 本月7次
说有个调查发现人们越来越喜欢吃健康的食物，于是某fitness gyms决定要在三个section售卖有机食品以期提高利润。
V2.是说一个manager写给Health Fitness还是啥的一个好像是健身连锁公司的建议的
根据 a recent survey,发现这个公司的customers大多是organic grocery的潜在顾客吧【这完全是我自己的表达，我记不得原材料了，我理解就是它是说这个survey显示organic grocery在这个company的顾客群中是很有市场的】，然后这个organic grocery要求所在城市有机、未使用农药杀虫剂的蔬菜供应，好像还有一个条件不记得了然后就直接说所以这个company所在的城市显然很适合开organic grocery。建议公司在national organic grocery chains进驻这个city前赶紧建，而且是expand all three fitness gyms to include a organic grocery.说通过此可以增加公司的利润。
上月机经6次
[V1]对一个fitness gym顾客的调查发现他们对吃的健康很感兴趣，所以政府会支持建卖有机食品的店。所以这个gym为了扭转利润长久的不增长因该在所有门店增设利润很高的有机食品店。
[V2] 一个survey表明人们越来越注重饮食健康，喜欢吃organic food, 所以得出结论当地的fitness gyms应该有grocery store，而且要赶在别的商家进来之前
[V3] People are interested in eating healthier, one way is to eat organic food which is grown without chemical and pesticide. Government is supportive for organic food. One grocery manager is recommending expanding their 3 out of 4 existing store to sell organic food.
考古：
.[v1]AA 大概是讲一个调查说这个城市的人开始想健康饮食了，然后一种有机食品商店是健康饮食的一个因素，然后么一个GYM说要在里面也建那个商店，给出理由是什么大的连锁还没进来，要快点建，然后要在其三家GYM都扩展这个业务什么的，这样一来会增加利润之类的。 有心的人去考古一下吧，不过我没找到...
[v2] 就是最近的一个survey得出结论，现在的人更喜欢吃的营养，而吃的营养的一种方法就是吃有机食品。所以作者就建议说在那个市里开有机食品店，在这种有机食品还没有普遍的情况下打开市场。而且这个店要开在体育馆里，还是三个体育馆每个都设立这样一个grocery food store(类似)这样可以增加体育馆的收入。
主要有的问题是 survey本身的问题，recently太模糊，还有无因果，无端假设，我觉得还有错误类比，过去推将来这样的trend
AA是一个健身房想要卖有机食品的那题。
[v3] from a customer survey, people like to buy organic food.and the government is ready to support organic stores. therefore, business manager recommended to establish organic food section in the company's three gyms.那个
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:08
34. 本月5次
V1一个新的服装企业 发展五年要开自己的retail store ，作者建议clients 购进这个企业的衣服，因为有很强的竞争力，而且CEO是原来很有名气的rock star （我总觉得是艾薇儿的那个clothes line）
V2.某集团的某产品在一些连里面销售不错。所以他们计划打算自己卖（在超市里面）。有一个投资经理忽悠客户叫他们赶紧买这家公司的股票。因为上面的原因。还有一个更搞笑的，该公司CEO是“前”摇滚明星。具有recognition知名度，能号召Young什么的购买力。
V3.讲的是一个young rising company 扩张了自己的业务，并且为了company的成功给出了两种预测——第一个是由于员工的极力推荐，可以使这个这个公司的发展获得成功。第二个是由于该company 的CEO是一个rock star，通过该CEO的star power也可以促使这个young rising company 获得成功
上月机经2次
说有间clothing is the new trend for youth apparel，然后financial analyst 建议investment firm to purchase this company based on the following。
因为：1.the company has been profitable in past 5 years 2.management has been very aggressive in expansion. They plan to open 125 stores this year 3. CEO is a former rock star and the album has been the top sales. The star power will be Influential
没有找到原题，上月寂静里曾经出现过，如下：
下面文字出现在某财务分析员写给咨询公司老板的memo上
某后起的服装公司专门生产迎合年轻人潮流的牛仔裤等休闲衣物， 之前五年都是通过零售商销售的， 销售连续增长。 最近这家公司准备建立自己的销售渠道，在商场里设自己直营的专卖店。 我们建议客户马上去买他们的股票。 因为１，这家公司很有实力，管理很激进。 2,他家CEO是一个有若干金曲的前摇滚明星，在年轻人里有知名度，可以保证销量和品牌效应。
提供观点：
1、过去5年盈利不保证将来也会盈利，新的销售渠道的建立（改变销售渠道）可能会对销量产生负面影响
2、不充分：有实力管理激进不能推断出股东能获利
3、前摇滚明星有知名度有粉丝，但管理好公司还需要专业的CEO
4、前摇滚明星不能保证在未来的一代青年人中一直保持高知名度
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:08
35. 写的某smaller private school提供更少的课程，但是a higher proportion of student go to college. 所以我们这所高中也应该focus on basic curriculum.
上月机经8次
原题：The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”（99 or 101）
提供观点：
1.是否上大学更多就意味着更好呢？概念不对equate——可能去的学校不好。
2忽略他因。
3错误类比。情况不同，人数多可能必须提供多种课，同时也可能兴趣多。。。
1．causal oversimplification
2．false analogy
3．It is likely that the smaller private school is incapable of offering more courses, or else its students can have better performance.
北美范文：
In this editorial the author recommends that Saluda’s Consolidated High School eliminate half of its 200 courses and focus primarily on basic curriculum in order to improve student performance and save tax revenues. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between Consolidated and the private school is the number of courses offered by each. However, other relevant differences between the schools might account for the difference in the proportion of their graduates who go on to college. For example, the private school’s students might be selected from a pool of gifted or exceptional students, or might have to meet rigorous admission standards whereas Consolidated’s students might be drawn from the community at large with little or no qualification for admission.
Next, the author assumes that the proportion of students who go on to college is an overall measure of student performance. While this is a tempting assumption, its truth is by no means obvious. If student excellence is narrowly defined in terms of the student’s ability to gain access to college, this assumption is somewhat reasonable. However, given a broader conception of student excellence that takes into account student’s ability to learn and apply their knowledge to new situations, its is not obvious that college admission is reliable indicator of performance. For example, students in non-academic disciplines could conceivably perform at high levels within these disciplines but nevertheless be unable to meet college admission standards.
Finally, the author assumes that savings in tax revenues will result from the reduced costs of funding the paired-down curriculum. This is not necessarily true. For example, it could turn out that both programs serve the same number of students and require the same number of classrooms and teacher.
In conclusion, the author has not made a convincing case for the recommendation to eliminate courses at Consolidated and focus on a basic curriculum. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to provide evidence that Consolidated and the private school were sufficiently similar to warrant the analogy between them. Moreover, the relationship between student performance and college admission and the mechanism whereby savings in tax revenues would be accomplished would have to be clarified.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:09
36. 本月6次
说是大学里的校医院和other kinds of hospital相比，不能提供better quality of care。因为校医院的医生人数和治愈成功率要比其他种类医院低百分之几，而且校医院是非盈利的，此外，这里的医生还会divide他们的时间去研究、发论文什么的。
上月机经8次
原题：The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”（43）
提供观点：
1， 从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率
2， 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的
3， 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步
1. 首先，医生的人数与质量之间没有必然的因果原因。profit跟质量也无关系。很可能treating price is significantly lower。
2. 成功率不能说明问题。缺乏其他的证据，忽略了他因：比如因为质量高，所以很多serious illness的，而送往其他医院的一般都是common cases.
3. 时间不能代表问题。因为那些医生所做的研究很可能帮助他们进行治疗。
北美范文：
In this argument the author concludes that university hospitals provide no better care than private or community hospitals. The author bases this conclusion on the following claims about university hospitals: the ones in this region employ 15 percent fewer doctors; they have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients; they pay their staffs less money; they make less profit than community hospitals; and they utilize doctors who divide their time between teaching, research and treating patients. This argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
The most egregious reasoning error in the argument is the author’s use of evidence pertaining to university hospitals in this region as the basis for a generalization about all university hospitals. The underlying assumption operative in this inference is that university hospitals in this region are representative of all university hospitals. No evidence is offered to support this gratuitous assumption.
Secondly, the only relevant reason offered in support of the claim that the quality of care is lower in university hospitals than it is at other hospitals is the fact that university hospitals have a lower success rate in treating patients. But this reason is not sufficient to reach the conclusion in question unless it can be shown that the patients treated in both types of hospitals suffered from similar types of maladies. For example, if university hospitals routinely treat patients suffering from rare diseases whereas other hospitals treat only those who suffer from known diseases and illnesses, the difference in success rates would not be indicative of the quality of care received.
Finally, the author assumes that the number of doctors a hospital employs, its success rate in treating patients, the amount it pays its staff, and the profits it earns are all reliable indicators of the quality of care it delivers. No evidence is offered to support this assumption nor is it obvious that any of these factors is linked to the quality of care delivered to patients. Moreover, the fact that doctors in university hospitals divide their time among many tasks fails to demonstrate that they do a poorer job of treating patients than doctors at other kinds of hospitals. In fact, it is highly likely that they do a better job because they are more knowledgeable than other doctors due to their teaching and research.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to demonstrate that university hospitals in this region are representative of all university hospitals, as well as establishing a causal link between the various factors cited and the quality of care delivered to patients.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:09
37. 本月4次
卖车店把豪华车放在广告中以及店中央可以比便宜的车得到更多的收入
上月机经3次
有一个卖汽车的公司在June的时候大力为他们的Luxury automobile做广告，luxury和inexpensive的mobiles的combined的sales很好；在February做的是 inexpensive的广告，就卖得不好。所以以后要大力做luxury的广告，可以吸引顾客，顾客一定会被吸引让后买很多，赚死了。
考古：
[v1]是一个Business Manager Memo的建议, 说6月份因为把luxury auto和inexpensive cars同时推广，得到了历史最高的销售记录。而二月份之推广了inexpensive car.所以以后应该吧 luxury car作为主打产品。
[v2] it said about in july, company advertised in local newspaper, combing selling luxury car and inexpensive car revenue. larter, the revenue decreased when company just sales inexpensive along. it is genearlly what it said...
[v3]某公司经理说7月份该公司做广告大力宣传豪华汽车，同时把豪华汽车摆放在展厅重要位置，该公司的豪华汽车以及inexpensive的汽车销量很高；2月份主要广告宣传inexpensive汽车，同时把inexpensive汽车摆放在展厅重要位置。但是总体销量不高。所以经理总结说，要把宣传和展示豪华车作为重点，blablabla
提供观点：
1. 错误的认为trend会一直延续下去
2. 错误的由时间关系推因果联系
3. 方案不充分，没理由推断顾客一定会买昂贵的车
4. revenue销售收入只是考察销售情况的其中一个指标，还应该考虑profit margin利润和ratio of profit利润率。某种程度上讲，利润和利润率比销售收入更重要，它反映的是一个公司的真正的盈利能力。(感谢lecit同学提供本条观点)
和这道题类似
The following appeared as a memorandum from the vice-president of the Dolci candy company:
“Given the success of our premium and most expensive line of chocolate candies in a recent taste test and the consequent increase in sales, we should shift our business focus to producing additional lines of premium candy rather than our lower-priced, ordinary candies. When the current economic boom ends and consumers can no longer buy major luxury items, such as cars, they will still want to indulge in small luxuries, such as expensive candies.”
提供范文：
First, the fact that the premium line of chocolates met with success in a recent taste is scant evidence of the claim that this line of candies continue to be successful in the future. To warrant this inference the vice president must assume that the taste test was representative of consumer’s candy preferences in general. Unfortunately, the vice president has failed to provide evidence for this crucial assumption.
Second, the vice president assumes that the increase in sales experienced after the taste test was brought about by sales of the premium candies. However, the only indication that this was the case is the fact that the increase in sales followed the taste test. Unfortunately, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is a sufficient condition.
Finally, while the vice president’s speculation about future sales of premium candies may turn out to be correct, no evidence has been provided to support this prediction.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:09
38. 本月8次
原题：The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial:
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”（14）
提供观点：
1， 没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.
还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
2， 错误类比，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。
过去推将来，不对。很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或别的情况发生了变化。
interactive interact instruction logical logically covincing ignore decline atttibute
dropout中途退学（学生）usage sufficient fund budget compromise comprise impressive portion proportional ultimately ultimate strengthen graduate graduation applicable apply applicant application affordable afford district
北美范文：
Sample essay 1:
The argument that the school board should buy more computers and adopt interactive computer instruction is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument assumes that the decline of school dropout and the achievements of last year’s graduates’ results from the adoption of interactive computer instruction. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. For example, achievements could have been made in other subjects than the ones with interactive computer instruction. Or last years’ graduates might not have been given the interactive computer instruction. Or the decline of the rate of dropout could be attributed to stricter discipline applied last year.
Second, even supposing the Nova High School’s decline of the dropout and last year’s graduates’ achievements benefit directly from the usage of interactive computer instruction, the success of the instruction in one school may not ensure the success in other schools. If it does not suit other schools, the instruction will not work.
Finally, even if the decline of the rate of dropout and the achievements of the last year’s graduates’ are the direct results of the interactive computer instruction, we still do not know whether the school can afford to apply the instruction on all the subjects or to all the students. If the school does not have sufficient fund and has to cut budgets on other projects such as the library, the quality of the school’s education will also compromise.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the dropout rate declined and last year’s graduates made impressive achievements does little to prove the conclusion that other schools should use a greater portion of their funds to apply the instruction since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the decline of the dropout rate and the achievements of the graduates are the direct results of interactive computer instruction, that the instruction is also applicable to other schools in the district, and that the instruction is affordable to all the schools in the district.
Sample essay 2:
The editorial recommends that the school board of Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum. Two reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the introduction of interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects was immediately followed by a decline in the school dropout rate. Second, last year’s graduates experienced impressive achievements in college. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, this argument is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The mere fact that the introduction of interactive computer instruction preceded the impressive performance of recent graduates and the decline in the dropout rate is insufficient to conclude that it was the cause of these events. Many other factors could bring about these same results. For example, the school may have implemented counseling and training programs that better meet the needs of students who might otherwise leave school to take jobs. In addition, the school may have introduced programs to better prepare students for college.
Secondly, the author assumes that the impressive achievements of last year’s graduates bear some relation to the introduction of interactive computer instruction at Nova High. However, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Lacking evidence that links the achievements of the recent graduates to the interactive instruction, it is presumptuous to suggest that the computer instruction was in some way responsible for the students’ impressive performance.
In conclusion, the recommendation that Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum is ill-founded. To strengthen this recommendation the author would have to demonstrate that the decline in the dropout rate and the impressive performance of recent graduates came about as a result of the use of computer-interactive instruction. All that has been shown so far is a correlation between these events.
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:10
39. 本月4次
说航空公司利润去年降了了20%，列了3个理由，油价涨了，新开航线还是公司来，还有一个想不起来了....然后说其它公司都面临油价上涨，但有公司利润增加，所以不是油价的原因，结论想提高利润关新开的operation.
V2. Provincia Airline最近利润狂降,调查可能有两个原因:一是油价涨,二是他们开通新航线。.但是另一项调查表明其他航空公司也经历了油价上涨,但是利润也上涨,因此表明油价涨并不是我们公司利润狂降的唯一原因.为了提高利润,我们应该停止开通新航线。（好像狗说的是买新飞机？难道LZ读错了== ）
V3. Provincia Airline的利润降低了。可能有两个原因。1.rising oil prices 导致 fuel cost 上涨。2.它最近增加了5个城市的航班。而其他的航空公司也经历了rising oil prices但却没有增加那5个城市的航班，所以呢，原因2才是真正的原因。（我觉得些这个相对别的argument有点小难度...）
zelda爱star提供的观点
1.FA。每家公司都是不一样的，那个什么other airplane可能飞机比较小，耗油比较少
2.不仅仅只有这两个原因，可能本身P的管理成本有上升。
3.别的airline可能由于别的原因导致油价的上涨并不影响其profit 比如提供discount tickets.
4即使P停止，也不一定利润上升。
上月机经5次
V1Provincia Airline最近利润狂降,调查可能有两个原因:一是油价涨,二是他们买了很多新飞机.但是另一项调查表明其他航空公司也经历了油价上涨,但是利润也上涨,因此表明油价涨并不是我们公司利润狂降的唯一原因.为了提高利润,我们应该停止购买新飞机
[V2] Procia's profits decrease as the oil price increased at the beginning of the month. However other airlines also faced the problem but their profits increase. So Procia decided to eliminate the planes it purchased earlier.
[V3] 一个航空公司商业分析人说公司去年盈利严重下降,然后又说去年发生了油价上涨跟航线增加,但是在油价上涨的情况下有部分航线还是盈利了,所以油价不是问题,该人建议管理层砍掉几个航线来改变盈利下跌的情况
没有对应题库
提供观点：
1、其他航空公司的利润上涨是否存在他因？如strategy的调整、成本控制
2、缺乏与其他航空公司更comprehensive 的对比
3、购买新飞机是否是导致利润下降的主要原因？停止购买不一定能阻止利润下降
作者: bigpig 时间: 2011-5-26 14:10
40. 本月2次
campus housing的housing rents和housing revenues在上一个学年都下降了，所以建议housing officials接下来减少学校里housing的数量以及降低租金，这样可以吸引live off-campus的学生。
上月机经6次
校内房子出租率降低，revenue相应降低。学校应减available housing units and lower the rents so that more students would choose to live on campus and the revenue of the housing business would go up.
原题：The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper.
“Because occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year, so did housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”
提供观点：
1、入住率和房租收入非因果关系（房租收入下降也可能是赶上经济衰退租房市场低迷、学生招收人数减少等）
2、降低房租不一定能吸引更多的学生（价格不是唯一因素，存在其他因素如住宿条件、学校管制太严等）
3、提高入住率不一定能提高收入（尤其是在利用降低房租这个手段时，增加的入住量不一定能弥补降低房租带来的损失）
来自北美范文
The author of this article argues that, to reverse declining revenues from campus housing rentals, campus housing officials should decrease the number of available housing units and reduce rent prices on the units. The author’s line of reasoning is that fewer available units will limit supply while lower rents will increase demand, thereby improving overall occupancy rates, and that the resulting increase in occupancy rates will, in turn, boost revenues for the campus. This reasoning is unconvincing for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that boosting occupancy rates will improve revenues. All other factors remaining unchanged, this would be the case. However, the author proposes reducing both the supply of units and their rental prices. Both of these actions would tend to reduce revenues. The author provides no evidence that the revenue-enhancing effect of a higher occupancy rate will exceed the revenue-decreasing effect of reduced supply and price. Without such evidence, the argument is unconvincing.
Secondly, the author assumes that lowering rents will lead to higher revenues by increasing demand. However, it is possible that demand would decrease, depending on the extent of the rent reduction as well as other factors—such as overall enrollment and the supply and relative cost of off-campus housing. Moreover, even if demand increases by lowering rents, revenues will not necessarily increase as a result. Other factors, such as maintenance and other costs of providing campus housing units and the reduced supply of rental units might contribute to a net decrease in revenue.
Thirdly, in asserting that lowering rental rates will increase demand, the author assumes that current rental rates are causing low demand. However, low demand for student housing could be a function of other factors. For instance, the student housing units may be old and poorly maintained. Perhaps students find the campus housing rules oppressive, and therefore prefer to live off-campus; or perhaps enrollments are down generally, affecting campus housing occupancy.
In conclusion, the author of this editorial has not argued effectively for a decrease in the number of available campus housing units and a reduction in rental rates for those units. To strengthen the argument, the author must show that a rent reduction will actually increase demand, and that the revenue-enhancing effect of greater demand will outweigh the revenue-reducing effect of a smaller supply and of lower rental rates.
作者: cherry_rui 时间: 2011-6-6 21:47
many thanks@
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