1 “Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
错误：1。 数据证明不充分。仅仅3个月的报告不足为证，不具有代表性，没有说服力。
2． 过去的3个月的销量并不代表着今后的销量。说不定只是这3个月衣服卖少了，之后人们会买更多的衣服也说不定。因为衣服是必需的。
3． 不能就因为这3个月的报告就断定说人们买家用品比买衣服多。因为他不知道其他地方的数据，应该要进行比较后才能得出结论。无端的假设。说不定人们是到另一些地方买衣服，在这里买家用，因此人们并没有以home用品代替clothing.作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:07
2 “Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 5 cents apiece for lemons, but today it commonly charges over 30 cents apiece. In only one of these last eleven years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
错误：1。 只把天气因素考虑了进去，认为就是天气因素导致种植者提价。说不定还有其他factors，比如monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions。应该在排除以上因素后才能得出定论。说不定不是种植者的责任。
2． 为什么一定要政府的介入government intervention。在自由市场经济下，可以通过其他更加好的方式来解决。比如boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted.作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:08
3 “Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.” (pool第124题)
错误：1。人流量增加并不代表生意就好，说不定很多人只看不买。
2. false analogy. 服装店和音像店是不一样的。音像店更加与radio 等有联系。
3． 音像店的成功也许不仅仅是因为改变了宣传方式，还有其他原因要考虑并排除。相同的，服装店的停滞可能也不仅仅是因为宣传方式的问题，还有其他因素。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:09
4 。A small restaurant owner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. His restaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided to open another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promote his 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the new restaurants. He expects his profits will trip after all restaurants are opened.
错误：1。 All things are equal. 过去两年不代表将来。
2． 他的3名员工不一定能胜任。没有证据说明他们很能干。
3． 无端的假设。没有证据证明利润一定会翻倍。利润由收入和成本决定，在收入增加的同时，成本也在增加，利润的增减还不一定。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:09
6． Greentree Grocers has been experiencing high sales volume but decreasing profit margin. Its customers are wealthy people looking for gourmet food and luxury shopping experience, so it must cut costs without hurting the customers' shopping experience. So it plans to layoff 10 employees per store and eliminate expensive displays and free samples. In addition, it will partner with XX Cafe to have a coffee shop in each store. This is supported by a recent survey that the Grocers and the Cafe attract similar types of customers. The conclusion is that Greentree Grocers will experience high sales volume as well as high profit margin.
错误：1。 没有证据证明消除昂贵的展览摆设及免费的样品就不会hurt顾客的shopping experience。说不定消除了这些，顾客们会觉得没意思了。
2． 增加咖啡馆会增加成本。并且调查不充分，共同吸引多少顾客不明确，可能只是小部分。
3． 无端的假设。没有证据充分证明将会有高的销售量及高利润。利润与收入成本有关。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:11
7． “Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.” (pool第44题)
错误：1。 Casal oversimplification杂货店的销售额增加不一定是药店部门起的作用。说不定药店部门没有利润，是其他部门起的作用。比如食品质量提高或人们又更多的需求等。
2． 销售额增加并不代表利润就增加，因为利润和收入和成本有关。
3．错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。
4． 没有证据证明这是个only store.无端的假设。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:11
8． “Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights.” (pool B6)
错误：1.没有证据证明第一句话可以推出第二句话。
2． 零售空间和很多因素有关，不能仅以价格来决定。和需求等都有关。
3． 最后一句话无依据。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:12
9． “When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees.”
错误：1。 causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.
2． 过去不代表将来
3． Either-or choice.可以两者结合。Can have the field offices under centralized control作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:13
10. “Currently, more professional accountants use SmartPro accounting software than any other brand. However, in the market for personal accounting software for non-professionals to use in preparing their income tax returns, many of our competitors are outselling us. In surveys, our professional customers repeatedly say that they have chosen SmartPro Software because our most sophisticated software products include more advanced special features than competing brands. Therefore, the most effective way for us to increase sales of our personal accounting software for home users would clearly be to add the advanced special features that our professional software products currently offer.” (pool B9)
错误：1。 调查中只显示了专业人员的需求及态度，并没有非专业人员的需求，因此不充分。
2． 在个人理财软件中加入更先进的功能不一定会吸引非专业人员，因为专业人员及非专业人员的需求是不一样的。错误的类比。
3． 没有提供什么原因导致竞争对手卖的非专业软件更抢手。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:13
11． “Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.” (pool 第1题)
错误：1。 Causal oversimplification.没有证据证明是因为组织学到了how to do things better.还有其他因素需要考虑并排除。
2． false analogy.电影业和食品业是不一样的。
3． 无端的假设。最后一句话没有理由，因为经历了25年并不代表他们学到很多，没有证据。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:14
12． “The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.” (pool第34题)
错误：1。关心环境的人不一定是使用这张卡的，他们关心的方面可能与环保组织关心的方面不一致。
2． 关心环境的方式有很多种，不局限于使用信用卡来表达。可以直接捐赠到环保组织。
3． 利润关系到收入和支出，也许比较两者后收入会小于支出，那就不对了。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:14
13． “Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.” (pool第14题)
错误：1。Causal oversimplification.说不定还有其他原因，比如学生兴趣加强，更加勤奋，老师更加专业。。。。。。
2．Based on false analogy.每个学校和每个课程都有不同的特点及需求，不能妄加类比。
3．All things are equal.过去与现在的情况也许会不同。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:15
14．“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.” (pool第106题)
错误：1。More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.
2．the survey is doubtful。不知道接受调查的人数及人群代表性。
3．It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net.作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:15
15． “The country of Sacchar can best solve its current trade deficit problem by lowering the price of sugar, its primary export. Such an action would make Sacchar better able to compete for markets with other sugar-exporting countries. The sale of Sacchar’s sugar abroad would increase, and this increase would substantially reduce Sacchar’s trade deficit.” (pool第40题)
错误;1.没有给出理由为什么降价是最好的办法，说不定价格现在已经很低了，没有降价空间了。
2．通过降价而增加的销量可能不会对收入有增加的影响，除非增加的销售额能弥补并超越降价带来的损失部分。
3．说不定通过减少进口是个更好的办法。因为贸易逆差是由进口大于出口造成的。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:15
16． the Cunch(貌似) Breakfast cereal contain 20% more nutrients than any other cereal in the city XXX. Moreover, in the survey conducted by us, 75% consumers prefer to the taste of Cunch Breakfast cereal than other cereal products. However, 消费者似乎并没有显著的青睐这个cereal。Therefore, in order to increase the sales, we should redesign the front of the Cunch Breakfast box with detailed information about the two features mentioned above(即多20%的营养，75%认为口味出众) (题库里没找到) 3次
错误：1。 Survey is doubtful.
2. 销量低的原因可能有其他因素。可能喜欢吃这个产品的人没有消费能力，比如小孩子。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:15
17． “Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.” (pool B4)
错误：1。 Causal oversimplification.增加员工是发生在前，但是不能就把这个看做是利润下降的唯一因素，可能还有供求关系的影响、设备更新慢等因素，还有可能是市场营销决策有误之类的。没有理由说新进的员工就不能产生比薪水高的效益。无端的假设。
2． 8年前和2年前背景情况也许不同，现在可能更加竞争激烈，因此就更需要有效率的员工，人力资源部门要负责招聘，而不能专断地要停止招新。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:16
18． 6月份的时候公司进行了advertising on parking lots and show room of luxury automotibles. And the sales increased significantly for both luxury and inexpensive models. 这证明这种投放广告的方式是有效的, 可以同时带来高级汽车(luxury)和普通汽车(inexpensive) 的销售增加. However, in Feburary, 同样针对inexpensive models的广告活动,没有带来sales的增长. 因此,公司应该在以后的广告活动中put the luxury models in front并center at luxury modles. 这样,现行可以maximize profits.
错误：1。 2月份和6月份时间不同，背景也会有所不同。犯了all things are equal的错误。说不定那个时候因为之前买车买多了，就暂时不买了而已。证据不足。不能就因为这样子就要专门为贵的车做广告，common sense 告诉我们毕竟大家应该是买便宜的车要多吧。
2． 公司的收入和成本有关，如果专门针对贵的车做宣传，那广告成本必然会增加，收入也不一定会上升。而且也不一定会卖的好。因为很多人可能看到是贵的车就不买了。。。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:17
19． “Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.” (pool第64题)
错误：1.survey is doubtful.不知道参加调查的员工人数，调查方式是匿名anonymous还是记名named，若是记名的话，说不定这些不是他们想要的改进。
2． 改进效果无从得知，没有调查。不可专断认为效果很好。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:17
21． W这个地方的经济是rely on tourism的，但是因为industry pollution,不能再吸引像以前那样多的游客了。幸运的是，又发现了煤的存在。mining companies 可以贡献很多的tax，然后又说了，without mining, W这个地方的revenue will decline.
错误:1.挖煤提供的税收与旅游业的收入多少的比较没有证据，如果税收小于旅游业带来的收入，那这个方法也不好。
2．这个地方政府可以通过改善环境，减少工业污染来重新吸引游客，拉动旅游业经济的增长。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:18
22． “A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service.” (pool第32题)
错误：1。Based on false anology.东西部不能就这么简单的进行类比，东西部自身就存在着差异。比如路面状况，可能西部志愿者服务态度好，车辆更好。。。
2． Gratuitous assumption. 不能仅仅把反应时间当作唯一衡量质量好坏的标准，其实还有很多因素，比如服务态度，人员专业水平，设备。。。
PS． 除非服务的时候要收取高额的费用以及事故频繁发生，不然不会增加总收入的。。。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:18
23． A survey shows that our consumers are more cared about eating healthier. One way to eat healthy is to eat organic food, which is free of fertilizer and pesticide. Our city has no organic food store currently, so we can establish one in our city. We can open organic food store in our gyms so that we can expect that the profits of our gyms, which stayed the same for a year, would increase.
错误：1． 我们城市也许可以不用开设这类的商店，因为大家都去体育馆健身，更加健康，没必要专门吃这些。
2． Survey is doubtful，不知道多少人更加关注吃的健康。
3。 如果现在更多的人关注的是如何吃的健康，因此可能不会大量地去体育馆健身，所以在体育馆里开设有机食品商店不会增加体育馆的利润。无端的假设。没有证据证明这样做会增加体育馆利润。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:19
24．“Now is the perfect time to buy a house in our city. Over the past five years, average home prices in our region have nearly doubled. But average stock prices in the national stock market have actually declined over the same period. So homeowners have seen an increase in value for their housing investment during the last five years that far exceeds what they could have made by investing in the stock market. Our city’s residents can surely achieve a similar profit over the next five years. Furthermore, if residents invest in a home, they can enjoy the use of the home while its value increases, whereas money invested in stocks would not contribute to their quality of life in the same way that owning a home would. Therefore, all the residents of our city should invest their money in a home.”
错误：1。Our city’s residents can surely achieve a similar profit over the next five years.过去5年不代表现在及将来的情况。无端的假设。
2．最后一句话没有证据，无端的假设。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:19
25．“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.” (pool No.108)
错误：1。作者assumes 会员使用量增加就代表会员人数增加，其实不然，可能是同一个会员使用了很多次。。。使得使用量增加，但会员人数并未增加。这样会员费及总收入还是没什么变化。
2．没有证据证明陆续开设那些娱乐设施会有效。
3． 没有证据证明这个中心是该地唯一一个提供这些多样化活动的中心。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:19
26． “The Largo Piano Company has long been known for producing carefully handcrafted, expensive pianos used by leading concert pianists. During the past few years, however, our revenues have declined; meanwhile, the Allegro Musical Instrument Company introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos and then saw its revenues increase. In order to increase Largo’s sales and in fact outsell Allegro, we should introduce a line of digital pianosin a variety of price ranges. Our digital pianos would be likely to find instant acceptance with customers, since they would be associated with the prestigious Largo name.”
错误:1.收入下降说不定有其他原因，比如钢琴的质量、服务人员的态度等等，都应该考虑并排除。
2．错误的类比。两家公司所经营的内容是有差别的。顾客的忠诚度及认可度也不一样。
3． 最后一句话缺少证据，证据不足。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:20
27． “Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
错误：1。 失业率低说明大家基本上都有稳定的工作，那他们就不会出来找工作。如果在那里建厂的话，也吸引不到多少本地的劳动力，只有吸引从外地来的。因此，这家想要发展的新公司也不会很快得到发展，机遇也不大。
2． 这个地方是个工业中心，该公司想要发展和研究科技类的产业的话，可能不太适合，当地的人大多都是专业于工业，而对科技不敏感，人才少。想要发展这类公司的基础薄弱，区位因素加人的因素。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:20
28． “On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.” (pool NO.39)
错误：1。 Gratuitous assumption.并没有说没有抱怨的人都是满意的，说不定有些人不满意却没时间正式投诉，或有些人持中立态度no option。没有证据证明其他人的满意度。
2． 缺乏数据。缺少该航空部门的其他航班flights的抱怨人数及相关竞争者的一些数据。相比较，若其他航班或相关竞争者中没有出现抱怨的，那这仅仅的百分之一也是很significant了，要引起注意并review。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:21
29． “Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.” (pool B6)
错误：1。Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production.这句话证据不足，仅凭之前的那句生产量超过其他厂不能得出这样的结论。减少成本还可以通过其他方式，比如减少原材料的成本，运输成本，设备成本等。
2．reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs。这句话没有根据，没有证据证明这是唯一的的减少成本的方法。作者: Honeytea 时间: 2010-9-1 14:22
30．“Stronger laws are needed to protect new kinds of home-security systems from being copied and sold by imitators. With such protection, manufacturers will naturally invest in the development of new home-security products and production technologies. Without stronger laws, therefore, manufacturers will cut back on investment. From this will follow a corresponding decline not only in product quality and marketability, but also in production efficiency, and thus ultimately a loss of manufacturing jobs in the industry.”
First, there is no specific evidence to support to the HIS argument that without stronger protecting laws, the manufacture will cut back ON investment IN the product. So far, with the current lawS, the investors still /spend money on/PURCHASE/ the product and there is nothing to prove that they will stop doing that. Moreover, as an investor, usually you will usually consider a lot of factors(,) such as the command FOR the product in the market, AND the profit you will get from the product before making the decision(,) rather THAN looking at the protecting law of the product. In some caseS, the protecting law DOES HAVE some impact(,) but definitely it is not the dominatING factor.
Second, even if the manufacture DID cut back the fund, the argument that this will bring out a corresponding decline in product quality, product marketability and product efficiency is unconvincing. Normally, when the demand FOR a product decreaseS or the product already has its reputation on market, the investor can start getting benefit and stop funding for it(,) and still do not hurt its quality or efficiency, or cause A LOSS OF jobS in the product industry. Therefore, the assumption from the author that the lack of stronger protection for security systemS will have negative influenceS on the product itself and its market should be put inTO question
In conclusion, the author’s argument is not reasonable. The author should give evidence to prove that the investor will stop funding for home security systemS if the government does not issue a stronger protectiVE lawS(,) and the absence of such lawS will actually have A VERY bad effect on the product industry.
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