大全-Ⅲ-20. When people predict that certain result willnot take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they havelearned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the resultoccurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admitsof more than one interpretation.
Whichof the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of anaction requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to takeafter a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have beensuccessful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certainpredictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategythrough several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correctprediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffectiveaction is often impossible.（D）
(E) Making a successful predictionrequires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.作者: xiaoaojiang 时间: 2010-6-30 22:02
感觉这种题最费脑力。谈谈我的理解吧。
claim：result并非一定是某action导致发生的。即两者之间不一定有关联。比如诸葛亮请东风这个action与东风刮起这个result从我们今天会认为没有关联，但当时的人却深信不疑。所以也产生了一个prediction，即只要诸葛亮做了请东风这个action，那么肯定会产生相应的result。但我们怎么去证明这两者真的没有关联呢？这个result可能是正常的季节性气流导致，也可能确实是诸葛亮请来的。如果是前者，那么是incorrect prediction and ineffective action，如果是后者，那么就是corect prediction and effective action。因为我们没法区分这两者，所以也无法判断result和action之间的因果关系是否一定成立，即the result admits of more than one interpretation。
因为我们没法区分这两者，所以也无法判断result和action之间的因果关系是否一定成立，即the result admits of more than one interpretation。
我看了看感觉最有可能的flaw还是上面这句话。虽然没法区分这两者，但是这两者都是action，所以还是不能排除result和action之间一定没有因果关系。
还望高人指点。作者: cheekar 时间: 2010-7-2 06:39
太容易了这题.原文着重的核心是:预测的正确性建立于什么基础之上? 提干说1.行动发生 2.结果发生 但是结果的诠释却因人而异
a 判断行动成功与否应该怎样怎样 和原文无关,原文只关心如何判断预测的正确性 而非行动.
b 还是重点于行动怎样怎样.... 杀
c 判断预测是否是好的,需要怎样怎样,比a b 切题,但是这个选项说的是一个预测是否是good,而非提干的是否correct,感觉不太好
d. 辨别正确的预测和错误的预测是不可能的 必然比a b c 好的多啊!!!!!!
e 分析同c作者: aful 时间: 2010-7-2 16:43
