5 题库未找到，上月寂静
关于cereals 的， 第一句说our cereals contains more vitamin k preserving …第二个就用survey 75%consumers favor its tastes 。。后面就说为了增加sales 吸引更多的顾客 应该redesign the front of the ..box.
(考古)V1:the Cunch(貌似) Breakfast cereal contain 20% more nutrients than any other cereal in the city XXX. Moreover, in the survey conducted by us, 75% consumers prefer to the taste of Cunch Breakfast cereal than other cereal products. However, 消费者似乎并没有显著的青睐这个cereal。Therefore, in order to increase the sales, we should redesign the front of the Cunch Breakfast box with detailed information about the two features mentioned above(即多20%的营养，75%认为口味出众) (题库里没找到)
V2说一个cereal的厂家的备忘录：认为该厂出产的cereal的一大优势是包含vitamin K。另外在一项调查中，有75%的人表示喜欢cereal口味。但是现在销售量降低。建议在做广告中更换包装盒，并注明该cereal的两大优势（就是包 含vitamin k和口味好）。
V3 一下来自公司营销总监的备忘录：一家生产cereal 公司生产的cereal含有的维生素k的数量比竞争对手都要多20%，而且一项调查显示75%的顾客认为该公司生产的cereal比竞争对手都要好，但是 该公司的销售量并不高。因此营销总监建议公司重新对包装盒进行设计，把该产品含有比竞争对手20%的vitamin K 和上述的那个调查贴在包装盒上。
V4 breakfast crunch cereal它说它自己的Vitamin K含量比别人高20%，还有一个它自己公司给自己产品的consumers发个survey结果75%认为它自己这产品口味更好。但是这breakfast crunch比别的销量低，所以是那对这两个优势的宣传不够导致的。因此建议把那个Cereal包装盒前脸的设计全换了换成对这两点的说明。作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:05
6题库未找到，上月寂静
V1考到的是说一个gym做了一个调查，说他们的customers is interested in eating healthier.而organic food没有农药，很绿色。所以他们觉得要在他们的三个gym的location都开一个organic food section。并且说这个organic food的想法之前都没有人想到过。所以在nation大量推广这个想法之前，他们在自己的gym里开个organic food sections一定能提高他们的profits.
V2一个中型城市一家有三个分店的健身中心，在顾客中进行了一项调查，发现顾客非常关注饮食健康。有机食品是饮食健康的一种方式，所以目前这个城市已经具备了消费有机食品的需求。所以经理建议在大型的连锁商场进入这一领域之前，在三家连锁店中开设有机食品商场，必然能提高利润，此前利润已经在一段时期内保持稳定的水平。
2次
(考古) A survey shows that our consumers are more cared about eating healthier. One way to eat healthy is to eat organic food, which is free of fertilizer and pesticide. Our city has no organic food store currently, so we can establish one in our city. We can open organic food store in our gyms so that we can expect that the profits of our gyms, which stayed the same for a year, would increase.作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:05
7 34. The following appeared as part of a plan proposed by an executive of the Easy Credit Company to the president.
“The Easy Credit Company would gain an advantage over competing credit card services if we were to donate a portion of the proceeds from the use of our cards to a well-known environmental organization in exchange for the use of its symbol or logo on our card. Since a recent poll shows that a large percentage of the public is concerned about environmental issues, this policy would attract new customers, increase use among existing customers, and enable us to charge interest rates that are higher than the lowest ones available.”作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:05
8 1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:06
9 64. The following appeared in a memorandum from the Director of Human Resources to the executive officers of Company X.
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.” 2次
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
提纲：
(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗？”)
1. The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2. How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3. Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
1， 调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
2， 改进方法是否充分？是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:06
10 44. The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
Megamart杂货店的管理层的商务计划：
由于我们在杂货店内加了药剂部分，今年我们的总体销售额增加了20%。显然，顾客主要关注的是一次性购物的便利性。在今后两年内提高我们的利润的最佳方法是增加一个成衣部门和一个汽车配件和维修商店。我们同时也应该在最后的纪念中继续增加新的部门和服务，比如餐馆，园艺商店。成为本地唯一的提供如此广泛服务的商店将给我们带来超越其他商店的竞争优势。
提纲：
1. Other reason that might have caused the increase
2. Stores specializing in one service might be able to offer things at a lower price, thus the megamart gained no advantage.
1. First of all, the argument suffers from the fallacy of “ after this, therefore because of this”
2. Granting that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding more departments will increase sales even further.
1.总体销售额增加20%利润不一定也会相应增加
2.销售额的增加不一定是由于增加了这个部门造成的
3.以后是否还会有如此效果不一定。因为可能已经有企业提供更专业更优质的商品和服务。
1.没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等，质量提高，或者经济情况好，人们有更多的demand。
2.销售额增加不一定是profit增加。
3.错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。
wide range of services VS increase profits over the couple of years 1.pharmacy section ≠ 20% total sales increased
2.only from the fact that 20% sales increased ≠ a commen realtionship of all customers
3.pharmacy section ≠ clothing dept./automotive supplies/repairshop
4.pharmacy secion + wide range of services costs high ≠ benefits and profits increase
5.the Pharmacy section cannot be considered as a trend of the future cusomers, it is possible that in subsequent years, people are more concerned with the special services of grocery store.作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:06
11 未找到 上月基金
V1:去年全国的mining technology都状态低迷，而做Renewable energy的公司有不少都挺成功（列举了一些能源），因此Blastcom公司认为通过转变策略，devoting research to renewable engergy来盈利并升高公司股价是一定会成功
V2:去年能源**整体下滑 但是一个Bolcom。。好像是这个公司呢却盈利了。。。原因是他将efforts switch from minering to renewable energy了。。于此同时呢 这个renewable energy的其他公司在未来盈利状况普遍看好（ 风能 太阳能等等）然后 于此这个BOLCOM 将来继续采用 new field strategy 未来将free from 利润的下滑
V3：讲的是一个研究mining technology的公司Blastcom面对去年行业产品需求的整体下降，决定将自己的研究转到renewable energy technology上。因为很多可再生能源的大公司都取得了成功。所以只要公司进行这方面的研究，那么未来的业绩和股价就一定得到保证了。
1。false analogy
2. gratuitous assumption：可再生能源市场不会萧条吗
3。gratuitous assumption：mining technology一定不会再好起来了吗作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:06
12 11. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
地方性报纸的编者按：
在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。
提纲：
1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor
2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population .
3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
4. cast one's vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个 倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。
2未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误！recession depression downturn低迷时期作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:07
13 39 The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
Avia航空的部门备忘录：
平均地，去年乘坐Avia的1000个乘客中有9个针对我们的行李处理流程写了投诉信。这说明虽然有大约1%的乘客对这一流程表示不满，乘客的主体对它还是满意的。所以对流程的重新审查对我们要保持和提高Avia的乘客数这一目标不是很重要的。
提纲：
1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？
2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉
3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivailize
1.没有complaint不代表没有不满。
2.没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。
A. In the first place, the arguer takes for granted that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with the airline’s baggage-handling procedures.
B. In the second place, lacking any information regarding the number of passengers per flight and the complaint records of competing airlines, we cannot evaluate the seriousness of the problem.作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:07
14 题库6
The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：
企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
提纲：
1. 作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2. 作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。
1. 因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2. H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3. 错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:07
15 B4 l The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us.
However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
提纲：
Firstly, the solution to the problem, mentioned in the article, rests on an oversimplified analysis of the issue. The author commits “after this, therefore, because of this” reasoning. The line of the reasoning is that because recruitment of new employees occurred before the success or failure of the firm, the former event is responsible for the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless all other prospective causes of the changes in the firm have been considered and ruled out.
For example, perhaps the main products of the firm took up most of the markets several years ago but lost the competitive edge in the past two years; or perhaps recently the costs of materials were much higher then before, squeezing the profits a lot. Therefore any reason aimed at addressing the problems of firm must be based on more thorough investigation to gather sufficient data , in order to narrow down and locate the actual cause of the problem.
Secondly, the author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that the firm should not hire new employees. The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. Given that the firm always needs large number of employees to enlarge the sale market, so without the employees who equip the qualities of high level of skills and motivation, the firm would commit larger lost; or that the firm recently recovered the market, leading to the increased need of the staff to make up the lost in the profits previously. Thus it is impossible to conclude without the evidence that whether the current conditions are the same as the conditions used to be two years ago.作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:07
16 108 The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increasein the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12％。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量和决定于会员费的收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
提纲：
1. 忽略他因。
2. 错误类比。
3. 收入和支出
1. causal oversimplification
2. a benefit-cost analysis should be given
3. Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown.作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:07
17 未找到
一个汽车公司在JULY 与FEB 两个月做广告卖汽车一个是有关豪华汽车的一个月是不贵的汽车的然后得出结论后面逻辑错误百出很好写。
(考古) V1: AUTOMOBILE——6月的销售策略是陈列LUXURY MODEL,打LUXURY MODEL的广告，然后COMBINED SALES剧烈上涨。2月陈列MORE INEXPENSIVE MODEL，打INEXPENSIVE MODEL的广告，OVERALL SALES下降。
经历的结论：应该继续6月的策略，因为只要顾客踏入AUTO LOT然后看到L MODEL就会被吸引然后购买。
V2 :6月份的时候公司进行了advertising on parking lots and show room of luxury automotibles. And the sales increased significantly for both luxury and inexpensive models. 这证明这种投放广告的方式是有效的, 可以同时带来高级汽车(luxury)和普通汽车(inexpensive) 的销售增加. However, in Feburary, 同样针对inexpensive models的广告活动,没有带来sales的增长. 因此,公司应该在以后的广告活动中put the luxury models in front并center at luxury modles. 这样,现行可以maximize profits.
V3一个公司说六月份他们把luxury automobile model在当地报纸上做广告，并且放在商店的显著位置，因此销售额创了历史新高，二月他们把inexpensive model做广告，放在显著位置，但是销售额下来了，因此决定全年都应该把luxury automobile model在当地报纸上做广告，并且放在商店的显著位置，这样可以maxmize profits & attract customers：作者: myice 时间: 2010-5-28 22:07
18 43
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”
报纸的健康板块上的文章：
有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，直到研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。
提纲：
1， 从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率
2， 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的
3， 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步
