(The following passage was written in 1977.)

Changes in the volume of unemployment are governed by three fundamental forces: the growth of the labor force, the increase in output per man-hour, and the growth of total demand for goods and services. Changes in the average hours of work enter in exactly parallel fashion but have been quantitatively less significant. As productivity rises, less labor is required per dollar of national product, or more goods and services can be produced with the same number of man-hours. If output does not grow, employment will certainly fall; if production increases more rapidly than productivity (less any decline in average hours worked), employment must rise. But the labor force grows, too. Unless gross national product (total final expenditure for goods and services corrected for price changes) rises more rapidly than the sum of productivity increase and labor force growth (again modified for any change in hours of work), the increase in employment will be inadequate to absorb the growth in the labor force. Inevitably the unemployment rate will increase. Only when total production expands faster than the rate of labor force growth plus the rate of productivity increase and minus the rate at which average annual hours fall does the unemployment rate fall. Increases in productivity were more important than growth of the labor force as sources of the wide gains in output experienced in the period from the end of World War II to the mid-sixties. These increases in potential production simply were not matched by increases in demand adequate to maintain steady full employment.

Except for the recession years of 1949, 1954, and 1958, the rate of economic growth exceeded the rate of productivity increase. However, in the late 1950s productivity and the labor force were increasing more rapidly than usual, while the growth of output was slower than usual. This accounted for the change in employment rates.

But if part of the national purpose is to reduce and contain unemployment, arithmetic is not enough. We must know which of the basic factors we can control and which we wish to control. Unemployment would have risen more slowly or fallen more rapidly if productivity had increased more slowly, or the labor force had increased more slowly, or the hours of work had fallen more steeply, or total output had grown more rapidly. These are not independent factors, however, and a change in any of them might have caused changes in the others.

A society can choose to reduce the growth of productivity, and it can probably find ways to frustrate its own creativity. However, while a reduction in the growth of productivity at the expense of potential output might result in higher employment in the short run, the long-run effect on the national interest would be disastrous.

We must also give consideration to the fact that hidden beneath national averages is continuous movement into, out of, between, and within labor markets. For example, 15 years ago, the average number of persons in the labor force was 73.4 million, with about 66.7 million employed and 3.9 million unemployed. Yet 14 million experienced some term of unemployment in that year. Some were new entrants to the labor force; others were laid off temporarily. The remainder were those who were permanently or indefinitely severed from their jobs. Thus, the average number unemployed during a year understates the actual volume of involuntary displacement that occurs.

High unemployment is not an inevitable result of the pace of technological change but the consequence of passive public policy. We can anticipate a moderate increase in the labor force accompanied by a slow and irregular decline in hours of work. It follows that the output of the economy—and the aggregate demand to buy it—must grow by more than 4 percent a year just to prevent the unemployment rate from rising, and by even more if the unemployment rate is to fall further. Yet our economy has seldom, if ever, grown at a rate greater than 3.5 percent for any extended length of time. We have no cause of complacency. Positive fiscal, monetary, and manpower policies will be needed in the future.

3. It can be inferred from the passage than in the late 1950s, which of the following occurred?

I. The growth in output was less than 3.5 percent.

II. The average number of hours worked declined.

III. The increase in output per man-hour was greater than usual.

(A) I only

(B) II only

(C) III only

(D) I and III only（E）

(E) I, II, and III

9. Which of the following proposals best responds to the author’s concerns?

(A) The government should manipulate the size of the labor force to prevent future recessions.

(B) The government should maintain some controls over the economy, but it should allow the employment rate to rise and fall with the gross national product, as a check on labor costs.

(C) People should accept that unemployment is undesirable but unavoidable.

(D) The government should manage the economy carefully.（D）

(E) The government should not interfere in the interplay among the three forces affecting unemployment.

第三题: I, II 两项我怎么也找不到文中的提示

第9题, D, 是一个response, 但是我认为E也是一个response. response 可以是positive 也可以是negative , 那么如何排除E?

请NN指教! 谢谢!

试着分析一下：

Passage 90 (5/15)

(The following passage was written in 1977.)

Changes in the volume of unemployment are governed by three fundamental forces: the growth of the labor force, the increase in output per man-hour, and the growth of total demand for goods and services. 失业及其3项影响因素。

Changes in the average hours of work enter in exactly parallel fashion but have been quantitatively less significant.

工作时间已较不重要。

As productivity rises, less labor is required per dollar of national product, or more goods and services can be produced with the same number of man-hours.

生产效率提高及其影响。

If output does not grow, employment will certainly fall; if production increases more rapidly than productivity (less any decline in average hours worked), employment must rise.

产出、生产效率因素与就业间关系。

But the labor force grows, too.

第1因素增加。

Unless gross national product (total final expenditure for goods and services corrected for price changes) rises more rapidly than the sum of productivity increase and labor force growth (again modified for any change in hours of work), the increase in employment will be inadequate to absorb the growth in the labor force.

GNP、生产效率因素与就业关系。

Inevitably the unemployment rate will increase.

失业率要增加。

Only when total production expands faster than the rate of labor force growth plus the rate of productivity increase and minus the rate at which average annual hours fall does the unemployment rate fall.

使失业率下降，平衡要素间关系的条件。

Increases in productivity were more important than growth of the labor force as sources of the wide gains in output experienced in the period from the end of World War II to the mid-sixties.

生产效率更重要。

These increases in potential production simply were not matched by increases in demand adequate to maintain steady full employment. 增长不足以维持就业水平。

Except for the recession years of 1949, 1954, and 1958, the rate of economic growth exceeded the rate of productivity increase. 在衰退年代，经济增长速度超过生产效率增速。

However, in the late 1950s productivity and the labor force were increasing more rapidly than usual, while the growth of output was slower than usual.

但在50年代后期，产出增长相对放缓。

This accounted for the change in employment rates.

这说明了就业率的改变。

But if part of the national purpose is to reduce and contain unemployment, arithmetic is not enough.

但如果为了就业，数字分析是不够的。

We must know which of the basic factors we can control and which we wish to control.

必须知道可以控制什么并学会如何控制。

Unemployment would have risen more slowly or fallen more rapidly if productivity had increased more slowly, or the labor force had increased more slowly, or the hours of work had fallen more steeply, or total output had grown more rapidly. 单一因素不一定产生有利结果。

These are not independent factors, however, and a change in any of them might have caused changes in the others. 各因素彼此联系。

A society can choose to reduce the growth of productivity, and it can probably find ways to frustrate its own creativity.

可以放缓生产效率。

However, while a reduction in the growth of productivity at the expense of potential output might result in higher employment in the short run, the long-run effect on the national interest would be disastrous. 但是，长期来讲不一定好。

We must also give consideration to the fact that hidden beneath national averages is continuous movement into, out of, between, and within labor markets. 必须认识到，劳务市场内的连续变化。

For example, 15 years ago, the average number of persons in the labor force was 73.4 million, with about 66.7 million employed and 3.9 million unemployed. 举例，失业人数表面小。

Yet 14 million experienced some term of unemployment in that year. 然而，经历失业的人数很大。

Some were new entrants to the labor force; others were laid off temporarily. 部分失业人口情况。

The remainder were those who were permanently or indefinitely severed from their jobs. 其他失业人口情况。

Thus, the average number unemployed during a year understates the actual volume of involuntary displacement that occurs. 因此低估。

High unemployment is not an inevitable result of the pace of technological change but the consequence of passive public policy. 高失业率主要源于公共政策。

We can anticipate a moderate increase in the labor force accompanied by a slow and irregular decline in hours of work. 劳动时间减少，劳力可适度增加。

It follows that the output of the economy—and the aggregate demand to buy it—must grow by more than 4 percent a year just to prevent the unemployment rate from rising, and by even more if the unemployment rate is to fall further. 由此要求产出达到一定的水平。

Yet our economy has seldom, if ever, grown at a rate greater than 3.5 percent for any extended length of time. 然而没有达到。

We have no cause of complacency. 不应抱怨。

Positive fiscal, monetary, and manpower policies will be needed in the future. 需要积极财政等政策。

想必，作者是一位凯恩斯主义者

3. It can be inferred from the passage than in the late 1950s, which of the following occurred?

第三题: I, II 两项我怎么也找不到文中的提示

I. The growth in output was less than 3.5 percent. Yet our economy has seldom, if ever, grown at a rate greater than 3.5 percent for any extended length of time.

II. The average number of hours worked declined. Changes in the average hours of work enter in exactly parallel fashion but have been quantitatively less significant. If output does not grow, employment will certainly fall; if production increases more rapidly than productivity (less any decline in average hours worked), employment must rise. We can anticipate a moderate increase in the labor force accompanied by a slow and irregular decline in hours of work.

III. The increase in output per man-hour was greater than usual. However, in the late 1950s productivity and the labor force were increasing more rapidly than usual, while the growth of output was slower than usual.

(A) I only

(B) II only

(C) III only

(D) I and III only（E）

(E) I, II, and III

9. Which of the following proposals best responds to the author’s concerns? 第9题, D, 是一个response, 但是我认为E也是一个response. response 可以是positive 也可以是negative , 那么如何排除E? 这里的选项应该是与作者观点一致才好。

(A) The government should manipulate the size of the labor force to prevent future recessions. 无

(B) The government should maintain some controls over the economy, but it should allow the employment rate to rise and fall with the gross national product, as a check on labor costs. 无

(C) People should accept that unemployment is undesirable but unavoidable. 无

(D) The government should manage the economy carefully.（D）

(E) The government should not interfere in the interplay among the three forces affecting unemployment. 反。