“A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in
一份西Cambria报纸的社论片断：
最近的对西Cambria的志愿救护服务的回顾显示出其对事故的平均应对时间比设在东Cambria的一个商业救护班要长。为了给事故受害者提供更好的医护服务并通过收取急救服务费来提高我们镇的税收，我们应当解散志愿救护并雇佣商业救护服务。
1. 对事故的反映时间诚然是评价服务质量的一个因素但并不是唯一的因素.所以仅仅因为东区的商业救护班的反映时间短就认定商业救护办的服务更好是gratuitous的.
2. 就算东区的商业班的服务质量更好也并不意味着,西区用商业班就会有一样的成效.因为东西区的情况是不同的.很可能西区的志愿者更有服务,献身意识.
3. 此外除非商业班收十分昂贵的服务费用或者有十分多的事故事实这些都是不可能的, 改成商业是不见得就可以给该镇增加很多税收的.所以把这一点作为理由是不正确的.
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”
地方性报纸的编者按：
过去的冬天里，200名学生从Waymarsh州立大学前往州府大楼抗议对各项州立大学项目基金进行削减的计划。另外12000名Waymarsh学生显然对他们的教育不太关心：他们或是留在学校里，或离开过寒假。由于不抗议的人群更大，他们比抗议人群更有资格代表州立大学学生。所以州立法会不必理会抗议者。
1. 代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。
2. 没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。
3. 此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。
136：新增题
The following appeared in a memorandum from the information technology department of a major advertising firm:
“The more efficient a firm’s employees are, the more profitable that firm will be. Improvements in a firm’s information technology hardware and software are a proven way to increase the efficiency of employees who do the majority of their work on computers. Therefore, if our firm invests in the most powerful and advanced information technology available, employee productivity will be maximized. This strategy ensures that every dollar spent on enhanced information technology will help to increase our firm’s profit margins.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
员工工作效率的提高可以给企业带来利益。通过提高INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY的软硬件可以提高那些主要依赖于电脑的员工的工作效率。所以某公司决定在软硬件方面多投资，这样的话提高了员工的产能，也能为企业带来收益。
137.
新题
The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
说一个公司的ceo写给hrd的信，过去八年总是新招员工，招了新员工，员工的产出总是高于员工的工资，而目前这2年新招了员工，但公司的margin profit在falling，所以说公司利润下滑是hr的问题。
63.（黄金64）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of human resources to the executive officers of Company X:
“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：
去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。
(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗？”)
1. The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year.
2. How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless.
3. Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made.
1， 调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。
2， 改进方法是否充分？是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见
139. 新题
The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner:
“Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
9
The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
财经杂志的意见栏：
一般而言，中年消费者的零售消费额的39％用于专卖店的商品何服务。而在年轻一些的消费者中这一比例仅有25％。由于中年消费者的数量在下一10年中将大幅增长，专卖店可以预期他们的销售额会有大幅增长。进一步，为利用这一趋势，这些店应该开始将一些吸引年轻消费者的商品替换为吸引中年消费者的商品。
1. The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author.
2. all things are equal
3. Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset
4. by the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.
未找到原题：
1. 从没见过的题，说一家公司生产的的cereal有75%vitamin K，比市场上同类产品的多。一个调查显示消费者很关心这个营养成分的含量。。。但sales figure却不怎么样。建议说重新设计包装，宣传这两种功效。
（感谢yujiiangreen ，
实在抱歉，找了好久也没有找到原题。希望见过的朋友们能告诉我一下。谢谢）
2. Greentree Gourmet 那道，我在题库没有找到，但是我依稀记得见过的，就是这个餐厅经营的目标客户是富人，然后它和一个咖啡厅的客户是类似的，所以打算和这个咖啡厅合作，在餐厅的辟一个角落卖咖啡。
（感谢tracydavid ，实在抱歉，没有找到原题。希望见过的朋友能告诉一下。谢谢。自己感觉这道题和已经从题库中删除的140题很像。大家可以借鉴一下。）
142.“offering pizza in our cafeteria has proved extremely profitable. To further increase our profits from pizza sales,we should switch to PDQ Pizzeria to supply our pizza.PDQ pizza was twice voted the ‘best pizza’ in the neighboring town of Hamiltonia in an online survey of Hamiltonia Gazette readers.The PDQ branch in our town sells pizzas for only slightly more than our cafeteria currently does and offers free daily delivery.Switching to PDQ Pizza will clearly improve satisfaction with our caferteria and hence increase the cafeteria’s profits.”
自助餐厅经理给EZ制造公司的总裁的备忘录：
在自助餐厅提供比萨被证明是非常盈利的。为了进一步开发比萨销售上的利润，我们应该选择PDQ比萨为我们提供比萨。PDQ比萨在临镇Hamiltonia的Hamiltonia报纸读者在线评选中两次被评为最佳比萨。PDQ在我们镇的分店所卖的比萨比我们自助餐厅现在卖的只多一点而且提供日间配送。选择PDQ比萨将肯定增加我们的自助餐厅的满意度，并因此增加自助餐厅的利润。
6
The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：
企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
1. 作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2. 作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。
1， 因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2， H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3， 错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。
142
The following appeared in a memorandum to a team developing accounting software for SmartPro Software, Inc.:
“Currently, more professional accountants use SmartPro accounting software than any other brand. However, in the market for personal accounting software for non-professionals to use in preparing their income tax returns, many of our competitors are outselling us. In surveys, our professional customers repeatedly say that they have chosen SmartPro Software because our most sophisticated software products include more advanced special features than competing brands. Therefore, the most effective way for us to increase sales of our personal accounting software for home users would clearly be to add the advanced special features that our professional software products currently offer.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
SmartProt公司在professional accounting software占有有利地位。但是在non-professional accounting software for home users上逊色于其竞争对手。home users用software prepare income tax refund。根据对professional users的调查，大部分人愿意选择SmarProt的software是因为其中有advanced special features，所以SmartProt公司决定要在none-professional accounting software上增加advanced special feartures，用以促进销售增长。（emily4ever）
108
The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12％。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量和决定于会员费的收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
1. 忽略他因。
2. 错误类比。
3. 收入和支出
1. causal oversimplification
2. a benefit-cost analysis should be given
3. Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown.
95
The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
“Hippocrene Plumbing Supply recently opened a wholesale outlet in the location once occupied by the Cumquat Cafe. Hippocrene has apparently been quite successful there because it is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city. But the Cumquat Cafe, one year after moving to its new location, has seen its volume of business drop somewhat from the previous year’s. Clearly, the former site is a better business location, and the Cumquat Cafe has made a mistake in moving to its new address.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Hippocrene铅管供应商在一度为Cumquat咖啡店的地方开了一家直销店。Hippocrene现在相当的成功，因为他们正计划在临近城市开一家大的直销店。但是Cumquat咖啡店在搬到新地址一年后发现它的业务量比前一年有所下降。很明显，它的前一个地址是一个更好的商务地址，Cumquat咖啡店作出搬迁决定是错误的。
1， gratuitous assumption: It is absurd to say the Hippocrene has been quite successful in the original location of Cumquat Café Restaurant only because the former is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city.
2， false analogy
3， causal oversimplification: Other factors other than the location that may contribute to the success of the H and the failure of the C should be considered and ruled out.
110
The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.
“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”
Frostbite国家银行的借贷部门的备忘录：
我们不应该批准那个希望开一家KK冰激凌连锁店的特许店的本地团体的借贷请求。Frostbite以其寒冷的冬天而闻名，而冷天气意味着冰激凌的销售不利。比如，虽然Frostbite是个有10000人的镇子，它却只有一家冰激凌店Frigid Cow。尽管缺乏竞争，Frigid Cow的净收入去年冬天下降了10％。
1. Other factors in deciding whether to give loan to a company such as the credit of the company should be considered.
2. Admittedly, the former and prospective performance of the company is also important when the bank have to make decision of whether or not should it give loan to a company. However, the author of the memorandum show no sufficient evidence to support his or her proposal that the bank should not give loan to Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors.
3. The statistics last year does not necessarily denote the future trend.
1， 排除他因，净收入下降的原因是什么？可能是经营不好，草率定价，甚至正因为缺乏竞争导致了这些。
2， 寒冷冬天不等于没有夏天，也不等于夏天短暂。不能说明原因。
6
The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：
企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。
1作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。
2作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。
1因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。
2 H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。
3错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。
14
The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”
两年前Nova高中开始在3个科学科目中使用互动计算机指导。学校的退学率立刻下降，而且去年的毕业生在大学取得了一些很不错的成绩。在未来的预算中，校董事会应该在能得到的资金中拨出更大的一块用来购买更多的计算机。而且这一区的所有学校都应该在课程中采用互动计算机指导。
interactive interact instruction logical logically covincing ignore decline atttibute
dropout中途退学（学生）usage sufficient fund budget compromise comprise impressive portion proportional ultimately ultimate strengthen graduate graduation applicable apply applicant application affordable afford district
1， 没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.
还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
2， 错误类比，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。
3， 过去推将来，不对。很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。
110（黄金112）
The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager.
“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”
Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50％的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2. Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
39
The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum.
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s passengers.”
Avia航空的部门备忘录：
平均地，去年乘坐Avia的1000个乘客中有9个针对我们的行李处理流程写了投诉信。这说明虽然有大约1%的乘客对这一流程表示不满，乘客的主体对它还是满意的。所以对流程的重新审查对我们要保持和提高Avia的乘客数这一目标不是很重要的。
1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？
2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉
3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivailize
1， 没有complaint不代表没有不满。
没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。
100（黄金106）
The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”
*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
报纸的图书版的文章：
现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名著。这和文学名著接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。
1. More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.
2. the survey is doubtful
3. It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net
（网友mattfrombay提供的原始版本：
说有一个online survey, 75% 的人认为古典文学作品很重要。82% 倾向读online book. (划线部分可能有误)。所以建议公司作电子古典文学（E-classics）这个business.
个人觉得：
此题可能是题库中100或黄金106的变体。大家可以参考看下）
134（new1）
The following appeared in a memorandum from the head of a human resources department at a major automobile manufacturing company to the company's managers:
“Studies have found that employees of not-for-profit organizations and charities are often more highly motivated than employees of for-profit corporations to perform well at work when their performance is not being monitored or evaluated. Interviews with employees of not-for-profit organizations suggest that the reason for their greater motivation is the belief that their work helps to improve society. Because they believe in the importance of their work, they have personal reasons to perform well, even when no financial reward is present. Thus, if our corporation began donating a significant portion of its profits to humanitarian causes, our employees’ motivation and productivity would increase substantially and our overall profits would increase as well.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
43
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.”
报纸的健康板块上的文章：
有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，直到研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。
1， 从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率
2， 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的
3， 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步
1. 首先，医生的人数与质量之间没有必然的因果原因。profit跟质量也无关系。很可能treating price is significantly lower。
2. 成功率不能说明问题。缺乏其他的证据，忽略了他因：比如因为质量高，所以很多serious illness的，而送往其他医院的一般都是common cases.
3. 时间不能代表问题。因为那些医生所做的研究很可能帮助他们进行治疗。
未找到原题：
1.某个Cereal Manufacture公司的研究表明，该公司的Breakfast Cereal里含有75%的vitamine K，比市场上同类产品的多。另外通过公司对regular consumers的survey发现大部分消费者更加偏好这种Breakfast Cereal的口味。But the sales of the cereal is decreasing. The ad department of the company conclude that, many people are not aware of the two features(vitamine k & taste). In order to spread the advantages of the cereal, the company should redesign the front box of the cereal
驳斥：（JJ提供者Edism880120分析）
1）调查只说明顾客喜欢他们早餐的味道并没有说明顾客不知道它营养好。
2）归因错误，sale低并不一定是因为顾客不知道它有营养。
3）错误假设，现在的box设计不一定使顾客不知道它有营养，也许顾客知道，但是因为别的一些原因他们还是不买。
4）one-sidedness, 改进box设计后不一定销量会上升，因为改变box设计后，很可能会带来一些问题，
如，无法突出口味优 势，使老顾客反感等等。
2．Greentree Gourmet 那道，我在题库没有找到，但是我依稀记得见过的，就是这个餐厅经营的目标客户是富人，然后它和一个咖啡厅的客户是类似的，所以打算和这个咖啡厅合作，在餐厅的辟一个角落卖咖啡。
142.“offering pizza in our cafeteria has proved extremely profitable. To further increase our profits from pizza sales,we should switch to PDQ Pizzeria to supply our pizza.PDQ pizza was twice voted the ‘best pizza’ in the neighboring town of Hamiltonia in an online survey of Hamiltonia Gazette readers.The PDQ branch in our town sells pizzas for only slightly more than our cafeteria currently does and offers free daily delivery.Switching to PDQ Pizza will clearly improve satisfaction with our caferteria and hence increase the cafeteria’s profits.”
自助餐厅经理给EZ制造公司的总裁的备忘录：
在自助餐厅提供比萨被证明是非常盈利的。为了进一步开发比萨销售上的利润，我们应该选择PDQ比萨为我们提供比萨。PDQ比萨在临镇Hamiltonia的Hamiltonia报纸读者在线评选中两次被评为最佳比萨。PDQ在我们镇的分店所卖的比萨比我们自助餐厅现在卖的只多一点而且提供日间配送。选择PDQ比萨将肯定增加我们的自助餐厅的满意度，并因此增加自助餐厅的利润。
3Providing health care to all citizens is a fundamental responsibility of government.
4油价上涨,只有我们加航线了,其他公司利润上升,我们的降了,所以应该取消航线
5.AA：具体记不清了，大致是讲一个叫George的人在一个地儿开了一个餐馆，然后呢周边有不少学校，生意就特好。他就想在另一地方再开3个，用他老店的三个员工分别当经理，然后他就认为开了3个店以后就能有三倍现在的利润。
--------------------------------大家可以参考下108题。有些类似。或许有些帮助。下面有考到。
6版本（1）
Jet Software design company 应该向auto industry学习，通过减少full-time员工的人数转来雇佣更多part-time员工的方式来减少人工成本，然后引用汽车公司成功的前例，这些公司通过这种方法已经大大减少了成本，所以这个computer company应该采用这种方法，减少25%的full-time员工，他们的labor cost会大大降低随之利润会大幅上升。.
版本（2）
软件设计公司要学习汽车公司，裁掉贵的技术人员，聘请便宜的劳动力，减少预算，才能增加利润
7.
股票PK房地产，作者说某个大城市的居民都应当投资房地产，因为在过去5年里，某一地区房价上升而股票市场同期却在下跌。他就武断地预计未来5年房价仍然会涨，而且投资房子可以再居住过程中享受房子升值的好处，而买股票就不行，因此该市所有的居民都应当投资房地产。（大概是这样）
8
一个国建（简称N）一直以旅游业为基础，最近由于污染严重，它的旅游业is not as attractive as before.同时，有research发现在它的一些national park 里面有很重要的矿产。这个作者就推荐国家要让开采公司来开采这些矿，因为开采的话国家能够得到收入，而且如果不开采的话，因为旅游业一定会持续下降，所以收入肯定也下降。因此，N振兴经济最好的方法就是让开采公司开采矿藏。
（wingbell ： 我找的错误：all the things are equal，不一定旅游业持续走低，可能国家正在才去措施治理污染，振兴旅游业。
one-sideness.一方面N是旅游国家，半路出家做工业肯定比不过工业国家没有竞争力，而且开矿肯定会使旅游业进一步恶化。
information too vague:不一定是最好的方法，对不同的national park分别对待肯定更好。）
题库补充
11.
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
地方性报纸的编者按：
在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。
1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor
2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population .
3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
4. cast one's vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。
2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误！recession depression downturn低迷时期
44
The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
Megamart杂货店的管理层的商务计划：
由于我们在杂货店内加了药剂部分，今年我们的总体销售额增加了20%。显然，顾客主要关注的是一次性购物的便利性。在今后两年内提高我们的利润的最佳方法是增加一个成衣部门和一个汽车配件和维修商店。我们同时也应该在最后的纪念中继续增加新的部门和服务，比如餐馆，园艺商店。成为本地唯一的提供如此广泛服务的商店将给我们带来超越其他商店的竞争优势。
1. 总体销售额增加20%利润不一定也会相应增加
2. 销售额的增加不一定是由于增加了这个部门造成的
3. 以后是否还会有如此效果不一定。因为可能已经有企业提供更专业更优质的商品和服务。
1. 没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等，质量提高，或者经济情况好，人们有更多的demand。
2. 销售额增加不一定是profit增加。
3. 错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。
1
The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商（processor）奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。比如在彩色胶卷处理方面，3/5英寸照片的成本从1970年的5天50cent降至1984年的1天20cent。同样的规律适用于食品处理方面。由于奥林匹克食品即将庆祝它的25岁生日，我们可以指望我们长期的经验会使我们达到最小的成本和最大的利润。
1. false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry.
2. causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out.
3. gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.
1. 错误类比：color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film.
2. 同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的？很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。
gratuitous assumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经out of date.
72
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：
本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部
1. A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend.
2. The past three months' trend does not guarantee the same in the future.
3. Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the author's suggestion groundless.
1， 降低和上升，是否存在必然的关系。忽略他因。
2， 三个月的时间是否能说明一种趋势？
52
The following editorial appeared in the Elm City paper.
“The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage, and arrests for crime and vagrancy have increased in the nearby Oak City Park. Elm City should pay attention to the example of the Oak City mall and deny the application to build a shopping mall in Elm City.”(新题)
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
Elm城的报纸上的社论：
去年在橡树城市中心修建购物中心是个错误。由于中心开业，大量的本地企业倒闭了。而且市中心受到严重缺乏停车位的困扰。在附近的橡树城公园拘捕的罪犯和流浪汉也增加了。榆树城应该注意橡树城购物中心的例子并防止在榆树城建立购物中心。
1. 作者所给出的所有问题和商场的建设都是时间上的前后关系而没有给出证据显示他们的因果关系
2. 作者只给出了不好的结果而没有给出好的影响很可能权衡利弊之后被选择的是要开这个商场
3. 这个商场的建立不应该也不能由此就否定以后所有的商场的建立
1， To begin with, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the shopping mall's opening and the closing of local businesses.
2， Moreover, the author's conclusion is also based on the assumption that the shopping mall has caused the increase in crime and vagrancy.
Finally, even if the shopping mall did cause the closing of local business and the increasing crime and vagrancy in Oak City, the author's prediction that Elm City will suffer from the same fate as Oak City is still open to doubt
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