标题: 请教 大全-3-12 [打印本页]
作者: jonathanher 时间: 2007-7-25 07:14 标题: 请教 大全-3-12
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
12. Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
为啥是B啊 ?
谢谢!
作者: smalllittle 时间: 2007-7-25 14:04
气象学家说只要建成一个精确的数学模型，就可以准确地预报天气。作者认为这是吹牛，因为只要不准，就可以推说模型不精确。所以，这个话是没价值的。如果想反对这个结论，或者说削弱这个结论，我们所需要的就是找到，越精确的模型就会带来越准确的预报。
作者: sinadragon 时间: 2007-7-25 18:40
ok
这道题争论的是天气预报专家设计的模型是否只是理论可行,根本无法用,这个人说for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model,即任何不准确的天气预报都会背归咎于模型设计的不完善,这里就说明无法设计出来完美的模型.
B在这里反驳说Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts,意思是相关的模型的 准确性大部分是和天气预报的精确并存的. 即如果模型不准确,天气预报也不可能准确
作者: sinadragon 时间: 2007-7-26 18:15
即使你不能;理解为什么是B
用排除法,CE涉及无关信息, A, D 都跑题了.只能剩下B
作者: Yingyutao22 时间: 2007-7-27 06:34
甲说：只要我能上树，就能把月亮摘下来。
乙说：这完全是凭空吹牛。只要你摘不下来月亮，你就会说“这都是因为我爬不上树啊”。（隐含的意思是：上树和摘月亮哪有什么关系啊。）
新闻报道说：中国有个甲，他站的高度和月亮离地球的距离居然成正比。
清楚了？
作者: orchidbrooks 时间: 2007-7-27 18:59
这样理解对吗？
天文学家说：如果有完美的模型就能有精确的天文预报
作者说：这完全是凭空吹牛。只要预测不准天气，他们就会怪说是因为模型还没有设计到完善。（实际上是模型本身就无法推导出天气）
against作者，B：模型的完善的确伴随着预测的准确
作者: forgetviviva 时间: 2007-8-2 06:31
作者说：这完全是凭空吹牛。只要预测不准天气，他们就会怪说是因为模型还没有设计到完善。（实际上是模型本身就无法推导出天气）
我觉得这道题目的难处在于，很少有人能把括号里面隐含的意思想出来。我也想不出来。
考试碰到这种题目怎么办呢？
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