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新东方逻辑补充题 Section III 12 &14

12.Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?

the answer is: Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

不是很懂怎么理解~

14.Of the countries that were the world's twenty largest exporters in  1953, four had the same share of total world exports in 1984 as in 1953. Theses countries can therefore serve as models for those countries that wish to keep their share of the global export trade stable over the years.

Problem: Cast the most serious doubt on the suitability?

Answer: Of the four countries, two had a much larger, and two had a much smaller, share of totla world exports in 1970 than in 1984.

My answer: With respect to the mix of products each exports, the four countries are very different from each other.

我想可能是我对这道题的题干理解有点问题,烦问大侠怎么解释?我认为是有4个国家一直以来都保持相同的份额。答案的意思却说4个国家在84年和70年的份额不同!不懂阿。。
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12.答案的意思是:只要数学模型准确,天气预报就会准确
Meteorologists认为只要有精确的数学模型,他们就能非常精确的预报天气。但是作者认为这种观点无法评价,因为不准确的天气预报可以归咎于不完美的模型。
哪一个可以反对作者的观点?

14.是要求削弱!
题干说这4个国家1984年和1953年的出口量所占份额相同,推出从1953年到84年,份额一直没有变。
正确答案说:1970年发生了变化,即使说在1953年到84年中间,发生过变化。因此削弱题干。
你的答案:这4个国家的出口产品互不相同。份额与具体产品无关。

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ft! 14题是看错年份了。。看来是越来越粗心落。。。

12题正在理解中。。。。

谢谢louisa..

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