og12 121题

annieview

121. Codex Berinensis,a Florentine copy of an ancient Romanmedical treatise,is undated but contain scluestowhen it was produced. Its first 80 pages are by a single copyist, but the remaining 20 pages are by three different copyists, which indicates some significant disruption. Since a letter in handwriting identified as that of the fourth copyist mentions a plague that killed many people in Florence in 1148, Codex Berinensis was probably produced in that year.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the hypothesis that Codex Berinensis was produced in 1148?
(A) Other than Codex Berinensis, there are no known samples of the handwriting of the first three copyists.
(B) According to the account by the fourth copyist, the plague went on for 10 months.
(C) A scribe would be able to copy a page of text the size and style of Codex Berinensis in a day.
(D) There was only one outbreak of plague in Florence in the 1100s.
(E) The number of pages of Codex Berinensis produced by a single scribe becomes smaller with each successive change of copyist.

答案为d。
疑问：就算只有一次瘟疫发生1100s，第四个抄写员也可以是在1148年后的某一年在handwriting letter中提到“曾经在1148年时发生过一次瘟疫”。所以觉得d答案并不能得出题中的结论。

对于这种不能够得出结论的point，要达到怎样的程度才能算是加强？

honoluluhono

题中说了后20页是由3个人完成的，这是由于一些disruption的缘故，这个disruption也就是后来第四个copyist提到的plaque。d选项中说了在1100s中只有这么一次outbreak，所以肯定就是这次爆发的时候发表的。说的是Codex Berinensis 的时间，并不是letter的时间

iwillmissyouso

同意楼上的观点，我再尝试说的详细点。
注意文章的这句话“but the remaining 20 pages are by three different copyists, which indicates some significant disruption”，意思是最后20页就由三个人写，暗示了可能发生了一些灾难使之中断了。（注意：significant disruption应该是文章的一个假设前提，就是考虑写作时间的时候只考虑出现灾难的时点）同时联系最后一个作者提到的1148年的瘟疫，猜测这个瘟疫就是可能的灾难，所以认为这本书也是这一年完成的。但是如果之后还发生了瘟疫，作者提到1148年的瘟疫只是回顾，可能这本书就不是这一年完成的了。所以D选项说只有这一次瘟疫，那就可以联系到1148年身上了。

楼主的问题在于混淆了假设是个必要条件而不是充分条件，就是由文章的结论可以推出假设一定是对的，但由此假设未必得出结论一定是对的。应该取非验证而不是顺推。