GWD-10-Q40 该选B还是D呢

lovesiqi4665

GWD-10-Q40
Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world have caused dramatic increase in the price of cotton on the world market. By contrast, the price of soybeans has long remained stable. Knowing that cotton plants mature quickly, many soybean growers in Ortovia plan to cease growing soybeans and being raising cotton instead, thereby taking advantage of the high price of cotton to increase their income significantly, at least over the next several years.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the plan’s chances for success?
A.    The cost of raising soybeans has increased significantly over the past several year and is expected to continue to climb.
B.    Tests of a newly developed, inexpensive pesticide have shown it to be both environmentally safe and effective against the insects that have infested cotton crops.
C.    In the past several years, there has been no sharp increase in the demand for cotton and for goods made out of cotton.时间范围无关
D.    Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying.
E.    The species of insect that has infested cotton plants has never been known to attack soybean plants.

答案选了B, 而我原来选了D. 之后想想，觉得B和D都能weaken原文的成功率。

B是直接weaken了conclusion的future background-原来是 Insect infestations in certain cotton-growing regions of the world，而现在可以用很管用的pesticide了，就不会减产了，棉花的价格也不会再飙升了，所以soybean peasants’ transferring to grow cotton is not that much profitable.

D是说消费者在未来的愿意为棉花支付的价格将比现在的那种high price下降，我觉得这同样导致soybean peasants’ transferring to grow cotton is not that much profitable. （因为需求下降了，价格也会下降啊。）

所以现在还是觉得不论是B还是D, 都能weaken那个结论。还是没看出B比D更好在哪呢？待大家的指点…谢谢

kittycd

B直接weaken了，D不一定weaken吧，需求下降，价格也下降这是你自己加的条件，题目没给。
你想太多了

lovesiqi4665

对不起，更正下，是我在D的括号里的表述有问题，不是“因为需求下降，而导致价格也下降”。你还是看原文的D选项吧, Few consumers would be willing to pay significantly higher prices for cotton goods than they are now paying, 就是说很少有人愿意为棉花付比现在更高的价格，就是直接谈价格的事。所以我还是觉得D也可以weaken 啊？

timothyyung

哦，还有这题B答案很完美啊，因为有了便宜又安全的杀虫剂所以棉花价格不会上升，因此改种棉花的策略是行不通的。
D答案相比之下不好，具体哪不好还真不好说。我个人认为D答案说的是cotton goods的价格，棉花和棉花制品是两个概念吧，这些农民种棉花也不是直接卖给消费者，他们只需要关注棉花的价格就行，至于棉花产品的价格不在他们考虑范围之内吧。就比如我以10块钱的价格卖给生厂商棉花，生产商加工算上人力成本等等乱七八糟的东西最后把一件棉花制品卖到100，所以消费者不愿意买。但这并不影响我种棉花，厂商定价多少是他的事，只要他买我棉花就行。我是这么认为的。不用做过多推测，紧抠题目中给定的要素就行。不知道这么解释你满意否~呵呵 欢迎拍砖~

lovesiqi4665

谢啦。我现在明白了。找到了前人关于这个题的探讨。有一个人的解释我觉得有道理，这里引用一下。他说D的错误在于消费者喜好的价格与实际价格之间的关系并没有在原文指出，所以这里的陷阱是典型的“引入熟悉的陌生第三者outsider”

napoleon8424

消费者喜好的价格与实际价格之间的关系并没有在原文指出，所以这里的陷阱是典型的“引入熟悉的陌生第三者outsider”  这个解释好~~

appleontree

消费者价格喜好当然和实际价格是有关系的，是有影响的！！为什么尼，消费者嫌太高了不买了，价格不就下来了？

这里呢，D不好是因为如果消费者嫌价格高不买了导致价格下降则转行的人可能达不到目标，因为他们打算就高价格提高收入发财啊，现在有可能发不了投机才了，要看价格低到什么程度，如果低到利润低于大豆的话，他们就失策了，如果利润仍高于大豆他们还是可以小发一笔的！

所以D不能WEAKEN, 不如B好！B说的是有了杀虫剂，棉花价格就会回归正常，他们再转行也没用啊！！哈哈

DayDreamings

我觉得你的解释不是很精准吧？文章的结论说的不是要小发一笔啊，原文说to increase their income significantly，然后D说如果significantly higher price ，他们句不买，这样的话，我觉得能对的很好啊，大家都不买的话，你价格再高有个毛用啊，还是不能赚啊，我觉得除非是在棉花跟棉质产品这里扣，否则，我还真不知道怎么解答啊？有更好的想法么？