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How long will the economic downturn last? While some claim to see green shoots, others – such as my colleague Martin Wolf – see a slow and painful process ahead. I have little to add to that debate, but I can guarantee that for some of us, the impact of this downturn will last a lifetime.
| 经济低迷将持续多久？一些人声称已看到了复苏的萌芽，而在其他人——比如我的同事马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)——看来，前方的复苏之路仍漫长而痛苦。对于这场辩论，我没有什么可补充的，但我可以保证，对于我们中的一些人来说，此次衰退的冲击将终其一生。
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That is the conclusion I draw from the research of Till Marco von Wachter, an economist at Columbia University, who has been tracing the lasting effects of bad luck in the job market. Having to look for a job at the wrong time can force us into compromises whose repercussions can last years or even decades.
| 我的上述结论是基于蒂尔•马可•冯•韦希特尔(Till Marco von Wachter)的研究，这位哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的经济学家一直在跟踪就业市场上坏运气所带来的长期影响。不得已在时机不好的情况下找工作，可能迫使我们做出妥协，而这种妥协的影响可能持续数年乃至数十年。
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For example, when von Wachter teamed up with two US government economists, Jae Song and Joyce Manchester, to study the experiences of those hurled into unemployment by mass layoffs in the 1982 US recession, they discovered horrendously long-lasting effects. The recession itself – one often compared with today's downturn – was savage, but it was over in less than two years. Yet von Wachter and his colleagues discovered that those who lost their jobs had incomes about 20 per cent lower than would otherwise be expected, even two decades later.
| 举例而言，冯•韦希特尔与两位美国政府经济学家——Jae Song和乔伊斯•曼彻斯特(Joyce Manchester)——合作，研究了美国1982年衰退期间，被裁员大潮抛入失业境地的那批人的经历。他们发现，失业造成了可怕的长期影响。那场衰退本身——人们常常拿它与眼下的衰退相提并论——可谓来势汹汹，但却历时不到两年。然而，冯•韦希特尔和他的同事们发现，那些失业者的日后收入较持续就业情况下的预期收入下降了20%，这一差距甚至在20年后都依然存在。
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It is possible that this result is really capturing the effect of being a less productive (and thus expendable) worker, or of being trapped in a declining industry. But that is unlikely. Such mass layoffs are by their nature indiscriminate, and the researchers tried hard to compare like with like. The results remain robust – and they match similar research done in Germany, and earlier studies in the US with smaller data sets.
| 一种可能的解释是，上述结果实际上反映了产能不高（因此也就更容易被裁掉）或者被困于夕阳产业给员工带来的影响。但这种可能性不大。这种大规模裁员本质上是不加选择的，而且为了做到同类比较，研究人员也费了很多心思。他们的研究结论至今仍站得住脚——在德国进行的一项类似研究，以及早先一些在美国进行、数据采集量较少的研究，也都与他们的结论一致。
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Why such a big effect? In part, it is a question of luck. Most people who have secured a decent, secure, full-time job have enjoyed a dose of luck in doing so. “It is hard to get lucky twice,” comments von Wachter. The difficulty of retraining is also a factor. Many people have to switch careers when they lose their jobs, meaning long-standing skills fade and new skills must be learnt. Certainly, when people are laid off during a boom, the loss of income is much smaller, presumably because it is easier for them to find a comparable job before their skills start to be lost.
| 失业的影响为何如此之大？在某种程度上，这是个运气问题。对于大多数人而言，获得一份体面而有保障的全职工作，离不开运气因素。冯•韦希特尔表示：“人们很难两次交上好运。”再培训的难度大也是因素之一。许多人在失业后不得不转行，这意味着他们将淡忘长期形成的技能，必须学习新的技能。毋庸置疑，在繁荣期内被裁的员工，其收入损失要小得多，想必这是因为，他们在自身技能开始退化之前，就能相对轻松地找到一份类似的工作。
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A similar problem lies in wait for those graduating during a recession. “People have to make compromises,” says von Wachter, which often means taking a stopgap job with a less glamorous employer, and trying to switch careers or switch employers later on. The longer this process takes, the longer the impact on the unlucky cohort of graduates.
| 经济衰退时期的毕业生将面临一个类似的问题。冯•韦希特尔表示：“人们不得不做出妥协，”而这往往意味着在一家欠缺魅力的雇主那里，接受一份作为权宜之计的工作，并试图在今后转行或者跳槽。这一过程的耗时越长，这批不走运的毕业大军所受到的冲击也就越持久。
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Relying on a very large data set from Canada, von Wachter, Philip Oreopoulos and Andrew Heisz estimate that the typical student who graduates during a recession can expect to be 10 per cent poorer in the year after graduation, a disadvantage that slowly fades over a decade. Even a couple of years' work experience is enough to insulate a cohort of young graduates from a recession – but those who graduate into its teeth, especially from less prestigious schools, can suffer all the way through to, well, the next recession.
| 根据来自加拿大的大量统计数据，冯•韦希特尔、菲利普•奥里奥波罗斯(Philip Oreopoulos)和安德鲁•海兹(Andrew Heisz)估计，一名普通学生如果在衰退期间毕业，毕业后那一年的收入预计会低10%，这一劣势将在此后的10年内逐渐消退。哪怕是两三年的工作经验，也足以令这批年轻的毕业生免受衰退的影响。但对于那些适逢衰退最糟糕阶段毕业的学生而言——尤其是在学校名气又不大的情况下——不幸可能会一直持续到，嗯，下一场衰退。
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One striking recent study, by Paul Oyer of Stanford's Graduate School of Business, showed that the Stanford MBA class of 1988 earned low incomes for many years. Why? Because they were applying for jobs just after the crash of 1987, and the high-paying bank jobs were simply unavailable.
| 斯坦福商学院(Stanford Graduate School of Business)的保罗•奥耶(Paul Oyer)最近进行了一项引人瞩目的研究。研究显示，斯坦福1988届MBA毕业生的收入多年来都维持在较低水平。原因何在？因为他们是在1987年股市崩盘后不久申请工作的，当时根本就不可能获得高薪的银行业职位。
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The inspirational message from this research: if you are forced to accept a less attractive job because of temporary hard times, actively look to get back on your dream career path as soon as you can. The less inspirational message: luck matters, and bad luck lasts.
| 从这项研究中可以得出一条鼓舞人心的启示：如果暂时的困境令你不得不接受一份不那么有吸引力的工作，你应该想方设法，尽快回到自己梦寐以求的职业道路上。而另一条启示则不那么鼓舞人心：运气很重要，而坏运气持续的时间长。
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