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Factors on the American Side
The American parents who pay their children’s bills for tuition and other expenses know that costs are rising at American universities. This was discussed in the Presidential campaign, and I assure you it is extensively debated in Congress and in every state legislature. Still, the plain fact is that costs for higher education are rising, even faster than the rate of inflation. Americans would not be candid if we did not acknowledge that some foreign students look at the higher costs and look for other options.
Resource and staff shortages in the 1990s led to shorter interview times and backlogs to receive an appointment -- in other visa categories, but not for students. The Embassy and the consulates in China always made provisions for students -- special appointment times -- so that they could more conveniently apply for visas without long waits. Now, the visa appointment call center allows central management of visa appointments, which has resulted in shorter waiting times. As before, the visa call center has special procedures in place to give students an even shorter waiting time than applicants in other categories – usually within two weeks.
The changed international environment in the wake of the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, has been a major factor affecting all visa applications. There are new laws and new regulations that affect travel to and within the United States. Americans feel them with increased searches at all U.S. airports, and in the requirement to obtain new electronically readable passports. Soon, every American passport will require a biometric indicator – a face scan. The United States is not unique. Prompted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), every country is moving to include biometric indicators in its travel documents.
Here is a good place to mention the new requirement for fingerprinting of visa applicants. A fingerprint is one of the “biometric indicators” – eye scans and face scans are other methods -- unique to every individual. The use of biometric indicators guarantees that the person carrying documents (like a passport or visa) is indeed the person to whom the document was issued.
Passports have always had biometric indicators. A look at the large vellum passport documents used in the nineteenth century shows that they too had biometric indicators, though they were primitive – the entries for height, weight, eye color, distinguishing marks, and complexion. In the twentieth century, passports advanced in technology, and the new biometric indicator was the photograph. That new visas, in an era of new threats, should reflect improved technology and use fingerprints should come as no surprise. In the modern version of the technology, there is no longer any roller, ink, and fingerprint card. The applicant merely places his or her index fingers on the electronic reader and the work is done.
The fingerprinting of visa applicants has already resulted in the arrest of hundreds criminals when they tried to enter the United States. In today’s environment, fingerprinting is a prudent and an unobtrusive measure.
Another new requirement is that visa applications from individuals with backgrounds in certain scientific and technical fields must be submitted to Washington for review. We acknowledge that there were long delays in the approval of some of these visas beginning in the fall of 2002 and continuing into 2003. Among the many applications reviewed by Washington, only a tiny handful have not, in the end, been approved. But the initial period of long delays may have caused some Chinese students to change their plans and proceed with their studies at home or in another country. And others may have been discouraged from applying at all.
I have good news to report, however. After great deal of work – the Consular Section in Beijing took the lead in working with Washington – 19 in 20 of these applications are resolved within thirty days. The average waiting time is about three weeks. The key here is for a student in a scientific or technical field to apply for a visa early. And the lesson for right now is this: if you hear from a friend that it takes months to get an approval for a visa in a scientific or technical field, your friend’s information is badly out of date.
Many students I meet are convinced that the Embassy has nearly closed the door to Chinese students. Let’s look at the Embassy’s figures of visa applications and visa issuances in the “F,” “J,” and “M” categories.
In FY2002 (the year ending September 30, 2002), more than 26,000 students received visas. The issuance rate was just under half. This, moreover, was the “raw” issuance rate, simply dividing the number of issuances by the number of interviews. The actual rate was higher because some students -- initially denied because they lacked this or that document, for instance -- received visas on their second or third application.
FY2003 was the first year to show a decline in applications for student visas -- down 15 percent. That year, nonetheless, more than 18,000 Chinese students received visas. For those students who did apply, there was only a modest decline in issuances -- about four percentage points fewer than the year before. Again, the actual issuance rate may have been close to half.
In FY2004 there was another decline in applications, down 28 percent from the FY2002 high. Still, more than 22,000 students received visas. The raw issuance rate was about 5 approvals for every 8 applications. The actual rate may have been 2 in 3.
So -- as of the year ending last September, applications were down, but the percentage of approvals had risen, not fallen.
This tells me that while there may be campus buzz that the United States does not welcome Chinese students -- a perception -- the figures show that the students who do apply have an even better chance of receiving a visa than before. Thus, the perception doesn’t match the reality. The facts show that the door for students is more than open, and it’s a very good time for Chinese students to knock.
...and Chinese Factors
Having looked at the decline through two American lenses -- the figures from the Institute of International Education and the Embassy’s visa issuance statistics -- let’s look at the decline in Chinese students from another angle. Are there Chinese factors at work?
For a decade China has been implementing bold plans to expand higher education. You all know the details far better than I do – the doubled throughput for bachelor’s degrees and a near-doubling in the master’s and doctoral degrees awarded each year. There have been huge investments in new campuses and laboratories. There is more financial aid. If China’s own graduate schools are expanding, and if costs are so much lower to obtain a degree in China, should it be any surprise that this might lessen the demand for education in the United States?
Also, there has been a side effect of this rapid expansion. It is that salaries for new graduates entering the workplace are lower. Also lower are the salaries that foreign degree holders earn after they return to China. Education overseas is, we can all acknowledge, expensive. Students and their families invested in foreign education partly because they knew foreign degree holders earned a premium when they returned. That premium is now smaller. That means that there is a smaller “payoff” on the investment in a foreign education. It is simple economics that this should result in fewer applications for study in the United States.
Some who allege that the United States no longer welcomes Chinese students argue that there has been a dramatic turn away from American universities to attend school in other countries. But other nations -- Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Austria, and Japan among them -- also report declines in the number of Chinese student applications. They are all wondering where the “missing” Chinese students are going. The logical conclusion is that they are going to school in China.
Here’s another factor that surely bears on this decline. I said earlier that American higher education is innovative, especially in business administration. One of the fruits of the innovation has been a boom in EMBA programs that are friendly to working professionals. That innovation has reached China. Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of American universities now offer EMBA and other programs here in China. They provide the education here without the need for a long period of study in the U.S. This is good news for the students, good news for Chinese companies and government organizations, and good news for China, but it also means that fewer Chinese students apply for similar programs in the U.S.
Finally, who cannot have noticed that other English-speaking countries have increased the promotion of their own higher education systems? |
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