标题: OG12-71 [打印本页]
作者: wuych 时间: 2010-3-10 11:02 标题: OG12-71
Roland:The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.
:But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.
Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population
(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
答案是b。看了og的解释，仍然还是不明白。这个跟isolated segments of the population有什么关系阿？谢谢指导
作者: BeyondY 时间: 2010-3-10 13:49
典型的民调和抽样检查的问题，这和数字比例这对冤家是一样的，是逻辑题经常考到的种类。这个涉及到概率的理解。举个例子好了，一共有60个人，50个人穿白衣，10个人穿黑衣，他们在两个房间里。如果从总数上来看，从两个房间来抽的话，抽到白衣的概率是50/60，但是如果第一个房间里只有白衣，第二个房间里只有黑衣，显然这个概率就变得两个房间不平均了。反正一般的民调的假设都是某个地区内各种情况是普遍分布的，如果不是正常分布的话其概率就有问题了。
作者: redo 时间: 2010-3-11 03:30
特定的群组
作者: redo 时间: 2010-3-11 03:33
失业不是集中在特定的群组，亦即是均布的
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