One analyst predicts that Hong Kong can retain its capitalist ways after it becomes part of mainland China in 1997 as long as a capitalist Hong Kong is useful to China; that a capitalist Hong Kong will be useful to China as long as Hong Kong is prosperous; and that Hong Kong will remain prosperous as long as it retains its capitalist ways.

If the predictions above are correct, which of the following further predictions can logically be derived from them?

(A) If Hong Kong fails to stay prosperous, it will no longer remain part of mainland China.

(B) If Hong Kong retains its capitalist ways until 1997, it will be allowed to do so afterward.

(C) If there is a world economic crisis after 1997, it will not adversely affect the economy of Hong Kong.

(D) Hong Kong will be prosperous after 1997.（B）

(E) The citizens of Hong Kong will have no restrictions placed on them by the government of mainland China.

我怎么推来推去都只能推出D呢？

D是最不可能对的选项之一。

(D) Hong Kong will be prosperous after 1997.就一句话，预测HK的未来怎么样。

而原文中，对于结果的出现，都有一个先决条件“as long as”，选项中用的“if”。

即出现什么样的条件，就会有什么样的结果。而D只说了一个结果，没有说条件。

请问，如果得出的HK会繁荣的结果的啊？

 One analyst predicts that Hong Kong can retain its capitalist ways after it becomes part of mainland China in 1997 as long as a capitalist Hong Kong is useful to China; that a capitalist Hong Kong will be useful to China as long as Hong Kong is prosperous; and that Hong Kong will remain prosperous as long as it retains its capitalist ways.

分析员说：HK有用-->HK能在1997年以后维持C，HK prosperous---> HK 有用，维持C---> HK prosperous

所以好像是个循环论证，怎么着都是香港应该维持C然后推出香港prosperous

分析人士指出，在回归后，只要C型的HK对于CHINA有用，HK就能保持她的资本方

式；而只要HK繁荣，C型的HK就有用；并且，只要HK维持她的资本方式，她就能繁荣。

哪里来的循环论证呢？很基本的倒退啊。

D.选项没有给出任意条件，就说香港will be prosperous after 1997. 原文中说，HK

繁荣的前提是，维持资本方式。而D选项没有说维持，怎么能得出结论呢？

另外注意，原文只是推理假设，没有一个是事实。

 明白我的错误所在了。

所以B的逻辑是说：只要HK能够把C保持到1997，那么HK prosperus, 于是就对中国有

用，于是就可以继续保持C

这个思路对了吧？

谢谢！！！