19: Sonya: The government of Copeland is raising the cigarette tax. Copeland’s cigarette prices will still be reasonably low, so cigarette consumption will probably not be affected much. Consequently, government revenue from the tax will increase.

Raoul: True, smoking is unlikely to decrease, because Copeland’s cigarette prices will still not be high. They will, however, no longer be the lowest in the region, so we might begin to see substantial illegal sales of smuggled cigarettes in Copeland.

Raoul responds to Sonya’s argument by doing which of the following?

A: Questioning the support for Sonya’s conclusion by distinguishing carefully between No change and no decrease

B: calling Sonya’s conclusion into question by pointing to a possible effect of a certain change.

C: Arguing that Sonya’s conclusion would be better supported if Sonya could cite a precedent for what she predicts will happen.

D: showing that a cause that Sonya claims will be producing a certain effect is not the only cause that could produce that effect

E: pointing out that a certain initiative is not bold enough to have the predicts it will have

19题看大家的答案是B比较多,我倾向于选D

理由:Sonya的言谈中的一个effect: so cigarette consumption will probably not be affected much,是因为 Copeland’s cigarette prices will still be reasonably low

而Raoul根据这个effect提出了不同的理由Copeland’s cigarette prices will, however, no longer be the lowest in the region) substantial illegal sales of smuggled cigarettes in Copeland

并没有发生effect的改变,而是产生这个effect的原因在两个人的话语中有了不同.

烟加税(change)－－>烟仍然低价－>合法供给不变（中间effect1）－－－>消费量不变(最终effect）

烟加税(change)－－>烟仍然低价－>供给改变产生走私（中间effect2）－－>消费量不变(最终effect）

关键是怎么理解effect,如你所讲effect是消费量不变，那么走私是消费量不变的原因吗？还是合法供给不变是消费量不变的原因？我看都不是，烟仍然低价是原因（这个原因对于辩论双方不需要）。这个中间effect 1 or 2对于消费者无关，不是消费量不变的原因，是税收变化的原因。

B较好说明了烟加税(change)可能会有导致合法供给不变（中间effect1）或者供给改变产生走私（中间effect2）

D的意思和Raoul: True说话不符合。Raoul: True是说一因多果，而D是说多因一果。

B就比较合适。

B正确。S说加税导致了某些结果，R同意了其中的一个结果，自己又提出了另

外一个结果。

而D的意思是，R认为导致结果的原因不止是S说的那些。是一果多因。

原因和结果颠倒了。

 如果按我的理解，effect是最终的consume不变，那么D就是合适的答案。

可是按大家的理解，effect是烟供给减少产生走私，那么B就是合适答案。